2026 World Baseball Classic Odds: Back Juan Soto, D.R. Ahead of WBC
The World Baseball Classic returns this week, giving fans everywhere a chance to see the best players in the world compete for their respective countries.
Twenty teams will be split into four groups (Pools A, B, C, and D) with two teams from each pool qualifying for the single elimination, knockout round, culminating with the WBC Final on Tuesday, March 17 in Miami.
The last WBC was in 2023, and provided perhaps the most memorable moment in tournament history, when Team Japan defeated Team USA 3-2 after Shohei Ohtani struck out then-Angels teammate Mike Trout to clinch the championship.
This is the sixth edition of the WBC, with Japan now going for its fourth championship, having won the title in 2006, 2009 and 2023. The Dominican Republic won in 2013 and the USA won in 2017.
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Despite being a three-time champion, Japan is not the favorite this time around. That designation belongs to Team USA, which is at even money (a $10 bet returns $10), and a quick glance at its roster reveals why. Last summer, Aaron Judge and Cal Raleigh were in a heated MVP race. This March, they will bat in the same lineup, along with Phillies’ teammates Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber, as well as potential 2026 MVP candidates Gunnar Henderson and Bobby Witt Jr.
A loaded lineup will compliment a stacked pitching staff, headlined by Cy Young winners Tarik Skubal and Paul Skenes, as well as Logan Webb — although the starting pitchers will be more so making cameos than throwing complete games. Team USA should sweep its way into the elimination round, and barring a stunning upset, will play deep into this tournament as the rightful favorite.
Team Japan is the second favorite at +380, and if you’re wondering why the defending champ has such long odds, look no further than the pitching staff. The 2023 team was stacked with established MLB stars in Ohtani and Yu Darvish, as well as Roki Sasaki, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Shota Imanaga (before their MLB debuts). This time around, none of those five elite arms will be at Japan’s disposal, as Ohtani will bat only, and the other four are not participating.
Considering those pitching concerns, perhaps Japan could be knocked off in pool play, possibly by a team like South Korea (+850 to win Pool C), which has an intriguing mix of MLB and KBO talent.
The team I like, however, at least from a betting perspective, is the Dominican Republic at +450 odds.
Juan Soto, Manny Machado, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Ketel Marte are just four of the nine players on this team who garnered MVP consideration in 2025, creating a lineup that is every bit the equal as the favored USA. The starting pitching is very solid, but not spectacular, with Christopher Sanchez, Luis Severino and Sandy Alcántara headlining the staff, in front of a strong bullpen laden with MLB power arms.
While the starting rotation is not elite, the bats can carry the D.R. to the knockout stage, where it can then deploy Cy Young runner-up Sanchez, and lean on what is a deep and potentially dominant bullpen.
Again, while Team USA is the rightful favorite, the betting value lies with the Dominican Republic.
If the D.R. does ultimately win, Soto, who has a flair for the dramatic in big games, is a very appealing choice for tournament MVP at +2800, considering his ability to get on base and hit for power. With the lineup surrounding Soto, pitching around him will likely not be the path opposing managers choose.
There is too much MLB talent in this tournament to realistically expect a serious long shot to come through and win it all in Miami, and many teams can likely be crossed off when it comes to potential champion. While chalk should mostly prevail, I am going with the minor upset and taking the Domincan Republic to win it all, with Soto as my choice for MVP.
PICK: Dominican Republic (+450) to win WBC
PICK: Juan Soto (+2800) to win WBC MVP