USFL odds: How professionals are betting on the new league and futures
By Sam Panayotovich
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
Football games are played on grass and turf, not calculators. But when it comes to betting on a new football league, the proper implementation of numbers can get you ahead of the curve against the sportsbooks.
My buddy Eric Eager runs research and development for Pro Football Focus (PFF), and he was foaming at the mouth when FOX Bet opened its four USFL betting totals in the mid-to-low 50s a week before the season.
Eager was adamant that "Unders" were the play.
The totals were rapidly bet down into the low 40s, and the "Under" went 4-0 against the opening numbers and 3-1 against the closing ones.
"It was the same song and dance with the AAF and XFL," Eager told FOX Sports. "People’s perception with a spring football league is that the defensive backs will be terrible, and there won’t be a pass rush, and it’s going to be more like a high-octane college game with lots of scoring.
"I remember the totals in those opening AAF games closed in the high 40s and low 50s, and three of the first four games went ‘Under.’ I want to say the first five or six weeks of the AAF went ‘Under,’ too until the books adjusted."
How low can these totals go?
"If they get down to 36.5 and 20-17 gets you ‘Over,’ that’s sort of where I’m drawing my line at this point," Eager said. "I’ll still be betting USFL ‘Unders’ until further notice."
You’re probably curious how a fella like Eager makes and maintains his football models. I didn’t pay close attention or study hard enough in my advanced math classes in college, so everything hanging from the formulaic calculation tree was way outside my hot zone.
Eager is the type of guy who crunches data for fun. He studied applied mathematics and mathematical biology at the University of Nebraska and wrote his Ph.D. thesis about Population Dynamics. He has helped build an amazing analytical team at PFF, and their football research is second to none.
It turns out there’s an art and a science to making the numbers work.
"What I love about new leagues is that you can start from scratch, but you also have to add your own opinions into the mix," Eager explained. "I’ll start by taking every single quarterback in the league and looking back at all the available information to analyze the pecking order.
"Right now, I’ve got [Tampa Bay QB] Jordan Ta’amu two points better than the average USFL quarterback on a neutral field.
"I also have my win share models from college football and the NFL for the rest of the rosters. We collect data on everybody, so for me to make my prior, I take all the win shares that any of these guys have ever accumulated and give a non-quarterback rating.
"Then I’ll take the preseason betting odds and utilize those because I respect the marketplace. So, I can quantify that this team is X points better or worse than the average team on a neutral field for every team. Then I’ll compare my championship odds to the actual betting odds."
Anything else?
"The last thing I do is simulate the league with hot streaks and cold streaks," Eager added. "I simulate every single game 10,000 times, and it’s the smallest number that gives me consistent results no matter how often I do it."
In a story last week, I shared Eager’s USFL title projections. His numbers stated that Tampa Bay, Michigan and New Orleans had the best chances of winning the whole enchilada.
There aren’t any drastic changes after just a week of football, but Eager’s championship formula has realigned the deck chairs. And there’s a decent opportunity to bet on a good team at better odds after one loss.
"I have Tampa Bay winning it all 20.3% of the time," Eager reported. "Then New Orleans at 17.3% and Michigan at 14.6%. Those are the only three teams that have greater than a 10% chance of winning the USFL title.
"The Panthers thoroughly outplayed their opponent last weekend but lost because of some pretty fluky plays. Their title odds are now inflated after that performance [up from +333 at FOX Bet before the season]. And remember, Tampa Bay and New Orleans are in the same division, so only of them can reach the championship game.
"Michigan at +600 is a smart play."
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He'll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.
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