USFL odds 2022: 3 simple rules for betting the inaugural USFL season

By Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports NFL Analyst

The USFL is finally here, and I could not be more excited! The first game of the inaugural season started off with a bang, and there's going to be plenty more of where that came from.

Besides being blessed with spring football, we get a chance to wager on these contests. Regarding gambling, let's talk about how to throw a couple of bucks down on these games with my three tips for betting on the USFL season.

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Bet on respected offensive coaches

Look at the history of the last two spring leagues, and you'll see why they both had the same results early in the seasons. Teams that started fast in Week 1 of the XFL (2020) and AAF (2019) were guided by offensive-minded coaches with long track records of high-powered offenses.

In the AAF, teams coached by Steve Spurrier and Rick Neuheisel won by a combined score of 78-28. We saw the same results in the recent XFL season that was shortened by COVID-19. In Week 1, teams coached by Pep Hamilton and June Jones won by a combined score of 68-37.

These offensive coaches can coach up the talent effectively to score points. They are more aggressive and have practice structures that optimize scoring.

For the USFL, I’d have an eye toward the Tampa Bay Bandits with Todd Haley and the New Orleans Breakers with Larry Fedora. The last three offenses that Fedora coached finished Top 36 in offensive efficiency. And we know how Haley guided those potent offenses with the Pittsburgh Steelers.

There are a couple of other offensive-minded coaches like Kevin Sumlin and Mike Riley, but both struggled in their last stints running offenses. I’d stay away from those offensive minds, at least to start the season.

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When in doubt, take the under

Here are the facts: These are newly formed teams, and their recently drafted or signed players will only get a few weeks to practice before the season starts. I’d lean toward the under in most of these Week 1 games.

We might see poor offensive play until these teams, coaches and players are more comfortable in the season. I will caution that the tackling could be brutal, leading to big plays on offense. So I would not throw multiple units on unders to start. But, in general, it will take these offenses time to gel.

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Wager on good quarterbacks

In theory, the best quarterbacks should play the best, especially early on. Quarterback is the most important position in sports, and we’ve seen the difference that having a quality quarterback can make for a team. The scale might be even more significant in a league like this where the talent levels vary.

When watching and researching, look for accurate quarterbacks and ones that can make plays with their legs. Those QBs will present an edge moving forward.

Personally, I'd be all over a coach-quarterback combo like Todd Haley and Jordan Ta'amu. With Haley's coaching and Ta'amu's accuracy, they should be a good duo to wager on this season.

Ready to start betting on the USFL? Here are the Week 1 lines and the title futures for all the teams playing. Happy wagering!

Geoff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.

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