2023 USFL odds: Best betting strategies for 2023 season

Sure, you can bet on NFL odds this time of year for things such as who wins the Super Bowl, Yes/No on whether a team will make the playoffs, Over/Under on regular-season win totals and such. But let’s face it, that’s not the same as the week-to-week buzz of betting on actual games.

While FOX Sports can’t wait for that second weekend of September when the NFL regular season kicks off, you can bet on regular-season football right now — and with advantages you cannot get from the NFL — via the USFL, which is in the midst of its second season.

Mark Drumheller, betting analyst for Yahoo Sports, and Will Hill, contributor to the Vegas Stats and Information Network (VSIN), provide a primer on strategies and what to look for when betting on USFL odds.

Let's dive into the action.

Spring Football

There is a large faction of football fans who don’t pay much attention to anything beyond what takes place between early September and Super Bowl Sunday. But Drumheller argues that sports bettors shouldn’t be among that faction because the opportunity is too good.

"I love these spring leagues, just because they’re small markets and not as mature as, say, the NFL," Drumheller said. "In the USFL, you have a fighting chance if you’re locked in and studying it."

What’s helpful to that end is that the USFL — whose games air on FOX Sports and the FOX Sports App — already has a year under its belt and is only an eight-team league.

"Last year, we didn’t know what to expect. Now we get to see Year 2. I have a knowledge base and I know these players," Drumheller said. "What gets me really interested is that it’s not the NFL. If you get an understanding of the teams and the players, you have an edge. It’s a much less arduous task than with the NFL, and every game is on TV."

[RELATED: USFL Week 5 lines, spreads]

Spread the Word

With a novel league that has a growing — and often sharp — betting base to this point, oddsmakers tend to be much more aggressive when moving the point spread. Hill might say that it’s too aggressive, although he doesn’t mind at all, as it creates great opportunities for bettors.

"One thing I’ve noticed is to fade these big line moves. They’re not taking many bets, and the people who are betting are usually sharper," Hill said.

For example, in Week 3, the Houston Gamblers opened as 1.5-point underdogs to the Memphis Showboats. But by game time, Houston had run all the way to a 7.5-point favorite.

"Houston was losing with 30 seconds left and ended up winning," Hill said of a 30-26 Gamblers victory. "The truth is somewhere in the middle with these big line moves. A lot of times, those moves are an overreaction. You can set up some good middles."

Indeed, the Houston-Memphis game showcased that fact. If you bet Houston +1.5 right out of the gate, then came back on Memphis +7.5 pre-kickoff, you won both wagers. At a minimum, though, the 9-point line move in favor of Houston screamed out to Hill that he should bet on Memphis — fading the massive line move.

"These sportsbooks can’t put out a perfect line for everything. But it’s usually not off by a touchdown. A point or a point-and-half, maybe," Hill said. "So when you see 4-, 5-, 6- or 7-point line moves, you’re better off fading those moves."

In the just completed Week 4, Hill knocked out another middle, though in a little less orthodox way and on a much smaller line move — 1.5 points, but across the key number of 3. The New Orleans Breakers opened -4, and Hill took the underdog New Jersey Generals +4. Then, when the line dropped to Breakers -2.5, Hill took New Orleans -145 on the moneyline. The Breakers ultimately won 20-17 – another double-dip for Hill.

"Some could argue it’s not a good strategy, and they might be right. But if you have a good idea of where the line is gonna move, then you can set up some opportunities where you’re essentially freerolling," he said. "If you lose, you lose a small amount of juice, but it’s an opportunity to win two bets. You’re guaranteed to win at least one of them, and the worst you’re gonna do is lose the juice.

"It does require you to anticipate where the line is going to move, where the money is gonna go." 

Hill, also a contributor to the GoldBoys discord, emphasized he’s not middling every USFL game nor winning every bet he makes. However, he said these types of opportunities should appeal to recreational bettors — risking a little to potentially win bets on each side of the same market — if those bettors just pay a little more attention to the league. Familiarizing yourself with the players and the teams presents opportunities to bet good numbers.

Totally Awesome

While Hill tends to lean toward betting sides, Drumheller generally keys in on USFL totals. He’s looking into the continuity factor when doing so — i.e., teams that retained the same coach and/or same quarterback from Year 1. Or the non-continuity factor for struggling teams.

"So far this season, I’ve been betting huge on totals. It’s about being able to target teams with continuity and good skill-position players," Drumheller said, specifically pointing to New Orleans as one such team.

New Orleans (4-0) has two of the biggest scoring outbursts in the league this season. In Week 2, the Breakers beat Houston 38-31, and in Week 3, New Orleans topped Birmingham 45-31.

"The opposite end of the spectrum is Pittsburgh. I’ve been hitting those Unders every single week," Drumheller said.

Pittsburgh (1-3) was 3-0 to the Under going into Week 4 against Birmingham. Pittsburgh led 12-10 through three quarters, but Birmingham got a 91-yard kick-return TD as part of a 14-point final frame, while Pittsburgh got a TD and two-point conversion.

Birmingham won 24-20, and while that wasn’t a winner on Drumheller’s Under 44 wager, it was a push – so at least he got his money back.

"This year, I’m targeting continuity and how it impacts games." Drumheller said, while noting the Over has been his play most often. "Pittsburgh is really the main team I’ve been hammering every Under on. But otherwise, the quality of the teams is much better in Year 2, the offenses are much better.

"There’s a better understanding of coaches, how they want to play, getting talent to match their schemes. So it’s been more Over betting, because offenses are much further ahead than where they were last year."

In Week 4, Drumheller took the Over in the Gamblers-Philadelphia Stars matchup, primarily because of Houston’s poor pass defense. As it turned out, the Gamblers’ defense was more effective against Philadelphia. But Houston piled up the points in a 41-16 victory as the game easily cleared the total on Drumheller’s Over 46.5 bet.

That speaks to Drumheller’s point about the USFL improving in its second year.

"The level of play is much better. There are more points scored, and the offenses are having more success overall," he said.

Hill dabbles in USFL totals, as well, and agrees with Drumheller that offenses are generally getting better.

"As the season goes along, and the offensive line gets its timing down, and the passing game gets its rhythm and continuity, it’s geared toward Overs," Hill said. "And these [spring] leagues want Overs. They want games to be exciting."

Added Drumheller: "Last year, I bet more sides, but it was almost the same line of thinking — what it’s really about is continuity. Totals have been the much more successful path for me."

What Else to Watch For

In these alternate leagues, it serves bettors well to be aware of different rules. A couple of key ones in the USFL:

– A running clock throughout the game, even after incomplete passes, except for the final five minutes of the second and fourth quarters

– Kickoffs from the 20-yard line

– Teams can go for one, two or three points after a TD.

"It shows the league is geared toward Overs by having teams kick off from their own 20. It’s a secondary league, and people don’t want to see 13-9 games," Hill said. "The receiving team is basically starting out in scoring territory."

Not surprisingly, just as in the NFL, QB play is huge in the USFL. Drumheller said mobile quarterbacks are far more valuable – just as the NFL is seeing with Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen and others. And getting ahead of QB changes can be a boon for bettors.

"A QB change can make all the difference. If you find out a team is going to make a change at QB, then there might be some value in that, because the offense gets a jump-start and the defense is not prepared for it," Drumheller said.

Another topic to consider when betting on these games is the level of play. Sometimes it will work to your advantage; other times, it’ll wipe out your wager.

"There are a lot more mistakes, which lead to defensive touchdowns and things like that," Drumheller said. "Penalties also add to the variance, which makes it tough from a bettor’s perspective."

In other words, it’s still gambling. But at least in the USFL, there’s more potential for bettors to find an edge against the oddsmakers.

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.

Download the FOX Super 6 app for your chance to win thousands of dollars on the biggest sporting events each and every week! Just make your picks and you could win the grand prize. Download and play today!