UFC 264: How to bet Conor McGregor vs. Dustin Poirier 3

By Sam Panayotovich
FOX Sports Betting Analyst

Good things tend to come in threes and that’s what mixed martial arts bettors and bookmakers are counting on for the third battle between Conor McGregor and Dustin Poirier at UFC 264 in Las Vegas.

McGregor knocked out Poirier in the Octagon almost seven years ago and Poirier returned the favor this past January as a sizable underdog.

FOX Bet is currently dealing Poirier -133 and McGregor +120 with the total for rounds set at O/U 1.5 (the over is a heavy favorite at -188). So for the first time in this trilogy, Poirier is the betting favorite.

"I actually opened McGregor a slight favorite at -120," Circa Sports risk supervisor Nick Kalikas told FOX Sports. "Action is the reason why the market swung towards Poirier. I’ve honestly been keeping us a little more towards McGregor because I know that Conor money will show on Saturday night. I was okay with getting pounded with Poirier money early on.

"Poirier obviously won the last meeting and he could definitely win again, but there’s a lot of recency bias. The bettors remember what they’ve seen last and you’re only as good as your last fight. And the narrative on McGregor is that he’s on the downside of his career and he might not be taking his craft or his training all that seriously.

"The sharps and public have bet Poirier since we opened. And the total has been bet up, too. Money is flooding in on ‘over’ 1.5 rounds. The juice has climbed up to -200 at most places. That second round is the sweet spot. We should have a result close to that number."

Kalikas does expect to see a monetary shift to McGregor in the hours leading up to the fight. That’s usually the way it works on fight Saturday in Las Vegas when it’s McGregor’s time to put on a show. There are as many Irish flags and accents in "Sin City" as there are in the Motherland.

"We always get that late Conor McGregor money," Kalikas explained. "The money will show. I’m not too concerned. If somehow it doesn’t, then we’ll be pulling for McGregor because it will be a huge decision for the house.

"I don’t think there’s anybody that drums up handle better than McGregor in the history of the UFC. Ronda Rousey had such a great following and Jon Jones and Georges St-Pierre are up there, but nobody touches McGregor. It’s like LeBron James in the NBA and Tom Brady in the NFL.

"There’s nobody that’s a bigger name than Conor McGregor and a name like that brings dollars to the window."

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Be that as it may, McGregor hasn’t made bettors money as of late. He’s dropped two of his last three bouts and three of six so he’s definitely lost a step. And it’s been noticeable to a guy like Kalikas, who handicaps fights and makes odds for a living.

"The one problem I have with McGregor is all the inactivity," Kalikas analyzed. "He fought Mayweather, Khabib, Cerrone and Poirier over a four-year span. We haven’t seen him competing and staying active in between. And none of those fights were all that long. He hasn’t been in the cage that much.

"In the last fight against Poirier, his timing was off. He wasn’t as smooth and comfortable as he normally is. He was a little more uncomfortable than normal. I saw a little glimpse of the decline being real."

Those that read this column know that I always talk about the right bet at the right price. McGregor was a substantial favorite six months ago at -275 or so and now he’s plus-money? That seems to be a massive over adjustment.

I understand that McGregor is nearing the end of his memorable career, but man is it enticing to pop his odds at +120. It’s not like Poirier is invincible by any means, either.

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"I think Conor gets it done," Kalikas forecasted. "I’m not as confident after seeing him get knocked out back in January. I was on McGregor -170 and the line closed around -300. So I got a great price and had no regrets. I thought he was going to win that fight and I’ll be on him again at UFC 264.

"Now he’s plus-money, so the betting value is certainly there. All he has to do is make a few adjustments. His striking is elite – he’s one of the best strikers in the history of the sport. I have to side with McGregor. And we’re probably going to need him behind the counter."

Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He'll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.