UFC 196: McGregor vs. Diaz crystal ball predictions
UFC 196 will definitely be one of the most talked about cards of the year with Conor McGregor headlining another massive show as he takes on Nate Diaz in the main event.
McGregor is moving up two weight divisions to face Diaz on Saturday night after his original opponent Rafael dos Anjos dropped out of the fight due to injury.
In the co-main event, Holly Holm will put her women's bantamweight title on the line for the first time as she takes on former Strikeforce champion Miesha Tate.
Holm is coming off the biggest win of her career when she knocked out Ronda Rousey with a vicious head kick last November. Now she has to prove that fight was no fluke as she takes on a crafty veteran like Tate.
Who has the edge in these two matchups as well as the rest of the UFC 196 fight card?
Let's look into the crystal ball to see who has the best chance to walk away victorious once UFC 196 gets underway Saturday night from Las Vegas.
CONOR MCGREGOR VS. NATE DIAZ
Conor McGregor has been virtually unstoppable since joining the UFC but following a 13-second knockout over former featherweight champion Jose Aldo, he's now moving up 25 pounds to face Nate Diaz at UFC 196.
McGregor has put on a lot of size since his fight with Aldo while walking around ahead of this matchup at about 168 pounds. Diaz has competed at welterweight before as well, but he's primarily known as a lightweight fighter.
The story on McGregor is well known.
He's a brutally hard puncher with incredible movement, footwork and defense. McGregor has an innate ability to take his opponents out of their game and pick them apart in a matter of minutes. He might have a tougher time doing that against someone like Diaz, who is actually taller and longer with his reach going into this fight.
Diaz has to stay smart when attacking McGregor because his aggressive pressure could set him up for a haymaker counter shot from the Irishman. That's exactly what happened when Aldo was rushing into an exchange and McGregor blasted him with one left hand that ended the fight.
Diaz needs to keep McGregor on the end of his punches and apply the right kind of pressure without bull rushing the featherweight champion while looking for a barrage of strikes. Diaz isn't known as a knockout puncher but instead puts a lot of volume together round after round.
That could hurt him against someone like McGregor, who needs to find only one opening and he'll launch a punch that will take Diaz's head clean off to put a stop to this contest. With that said, it's tough to pick against McGregor right now and with Diaz taking this fight on short notice, he might survive longer than Aldo but chances are he won't be vertical to make it to round three.
PREDICTION: Conor McGregor by TKO, Round 2
HOLLY HOLM VS. MIESHA TATE
Holly Holm goes from being a massive underdog in her last fight with Ronda Rousey to a huge favorite in her bout with Miesha Tate, but this matchup is anything but a foregone conclusion.
For all the ways that Holm beat Rousey doesn't mean she'll do to Tate the same way.
Tate is a scrappy fighter who loves to step inside a phone booth for her fights. In other words, Tate gets in close, working dirty boxing and winning scrambles against virtually all of her opponents. Tate has tremendous wrestling and submission skills, but she's also developed a hammer for a right hand that can knock anybody down if they get caught with it.
Holm is obviously no stranger to facing top opponents, but she's going to have to work for every exchange in this fight or risk getting dragged into muddy waters with Tate on the feet and on the ground. Where Holm can take advantage is with her side to side footwork to step away from Tate whenever she moves forward.
It might not be as flashy as her last win, but Holm has to stay smart more than worrying about a big knockout because it may not come in this fight.
Over five rounds, it's hard to pick against Holm given her tremendous striking pedigree, size and takedown defense, but don't think for a second that Tate can't turn the tables on her with good wrestling and a powerful overhand right. The point is this one is going to be close and don't be shocked if it's down to one round ultimately making the difference in the decision.
PREDICTION: Holly Holm by split decision.
GIAN VILLANTE VS. ILIR LATIFI
Don't blink during this light heavyweight matchup between Gian Villante and Ilir Latifi because chances are one of them is going to sleep before the first round is over.
Villante has shown flashes of brilliance during his UFC campaign, but he's also managed to come up short in some of his biggest fights as well. He's a knockout striker on the feet, but he also has a tendency to get hit a lot and his conditioning has been suspect.
Latifi is obviously giving up some size in this fight as one of the shortest light heavyweights on the roster, but his new conditioning program has him in the best shape of his life and that could be great things on Saturday night.
Latifi just needs to be careful exchanging punches with Villante early because even one stray shot getting through could put an end to this one. Still, Latifi is called "The Sledgehammer" for a reason and it's a nickname he might earn again in this matchup.
PREDICTION: Ilir Latifi by knockout, Round 1
COREY ANDERSON VS. TOM LAWLOR
As the light heavyweight division continues to look for the next big thing, Corey Anderson and Tom Lawlor have a chance to put on a show this weekend to impress the rest of the 205-pound fighters in the world.
Anderson is one of the most talked about fighters coming up the ranks after winning "The Ultimate Fighter", but he's still developing his overall MMA game as he starts to make a push towards the top 10. Anderson is a former college wrestler with explosive takedowns and good mat control, but lately he's been showing off an ever improving boxing game.
Anderson has great range and patience, which can frustrate his opponents to no end.
Lawlor is a real veteran with good grappling and one-punch knockout power. He's also very slick with submissions, especially a guillotine choke that could be deadly to Anderson if he shoots in for a half-hearted takedown.
This is another toss up, but based on recent performances the edge goes to Anderson to eke out a decision with volume striking and distance over three rounds to keep Lawlor on the outside, searching for a home for his power shots.
PREDICTION: Corey Anderson by unanimous decision
AMANDA NUNES VS. VALENTINA SHEVCHENKO
Depending on Ronda Rousey's future plans, this bantamweight matchup could play a part in who gets the next shot at the title after UFC 196 concludes.
Amanda Nunes has looked unstoppable in her last two bouts as she dismantled Shayna Baszler and Sara McMann in back-to-back fights, and she'll look for a third win in a row this weekend against dangerous striker Valentina Shevchenko.
Shevchenko made a very impressive debut against Sarah Kaufman while showing off her world class Muay Thai kickboxing, but she might have to use more than that to fend off Nunes' attacks in this bout.
Nunes is a very fast starter with extremely heavy hands and a punishing style on the ground. The only problems Nunes has faced in recent years has been her tendency to start fast and not leave much in the tank for the finish, but following a loss to Cat Zingano it seems like she's addressed those issues.
If Nunes applies her game and doesn't just stand on the outside to exchange kicks with Shevchenko, she should be able to drag this fight to the mat and open up a barrage of strikes to get the finish for another impressive win.
PREDICTION: Amanda Nunes by TKO, Round 1
BONUS FIGHT:
BRANDON THATCH VS. SIYAR BAHADURZADA
The featured UFC 196 prelim airing on FS1 this Saturday night features two fighters desperately in need of a win. It wasn't long ago that Brandon Thatch was being called the next big thing, but two losses in a row have knocked him off that perch in a hurry. As for Siyar Bahadurzada, he's well known for having brutal punching power, but he's struggled to land anything significant in his most recent bouts while also dealing with a mountain of injuries that kept piling up.
Thatch still has a lot of potential so he needs to show that this weekend in the bout with Bahadurzada. Thatch is a huge welterweight so he needs to use that size and power to bully Bahadurzada and not get stuck in a striking battle where he's just throwing shots in the middle of the Octagon.
So long as Thatch pressures Bahadurzada, pushes him against the cage and keeps that pressure up for the first round, he could wear him down until an opening arises to get the finish on the ground.
PREDICTION: Brandon Thatch by TKO, Round 2