World Cup Qualifying: What to expect in the January window
By Doug McIntyre
FOX Sports Soccer Writer
By the time a normal World Cup year begins, the 32-nation field is set, and the match schedule has already been committed to memory. In the throes of winter, the promise of another spectacular summer tournament beckons.
This is no normal World Cup year.
The 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar was always going to be different, of course. It’s the first time in the quadrennial event’s nearly century-long history that it won’t be staged in May, June or July. It will also be the first tournament staged in the Middle East. Those things we’ve known for a while.
Then the COVID-19 pandemic hit. Qualifying matches were postponed and then pushed back again. In the CONCACAF region of North and Central America and the Caribbean, the delay turned what is usually a two-year marathon into a six-month sprint for the eight nations competing in the final round.
The top three make it automatically. A fourth can join them by beating Oceania’s champion two months after the final draw takes place on April 1 in Doha. No fooling.
All of this is brand new for everyone. And this month’s international fixture window is no different.
Why January’s qualifiers are unique
With much of North America in a deep freeze in January, CONCACAF is normally dormant. There’s no international break. MLS — the continent’s largest league with 27 clubs — is between seasons.
Then the global health crisis crunched the calendar, and FIFA was forced to shoehorn an extra three-game window into the end of this month. The timing presents all sorts of challenges.
Three-match windows were novel when qualifying began in September. Now players and coaches know how to navigate them. One key lesson? Rotating lineups is essential. But keeping the athletes fresh will be far more difficult this month, with so many of their club teams idle.
Nine members of the 25-man roster that United States coach Gregg Berhalter picked in November were MLS-based. Just one, Ricardo Pepi, might get a few games in before the U.S. welcomes El Salvador to Columbus, Ohio, on Jan. 27. That's because Pepi has left FC Dallas for German Bundesliga club Augsburg.
The other eight MLS-based players — including first-choice center backs Walker Zimmerman and Miles Robinson — will not have played a competitive match in months.
An even larger percentage of Canada’s squad will lack game fitness; 10 of the 23 players summoned by Reds coach John Herdman in November were MLS-based.
Other nations will be impacted, too. Jamaica has five MLS players. The Hondurans and Salvadorans each have three. El Salvador has another five players in the second-tier United Soccer League, which wrapped its 2021 campaign way back in October.
Meanwhile, most of third-place Mexico’s roster will be logging regular minutes either in Europe or in Liga MX. That advantage could help El Tri close the gap with Octagonal leaders Canada and the second-place Americans.
How travel and weather factor in
Seasonal temperatures add another wrinkle for several teams — not least the USMNT.
With the trip to Canada scheduled for Jan. 30, U.S. Soccer had to wait until its Canadian counterparts picked a site before deciding where to host its two home games before and after.
When Canada settled on Hamilton — about 40 miles southwest of Toronto — the U.S. chose Columbus and St. Paul, Minnesota. (The USMNT face Honduras on Feb. 2 in St. Paul.)
The thermometer is expected to be near or below the freezing mark at kickoff in all three cities, according to FOX Weather.
At least the U.S. will play in constant temperatures. Canada opens its three-contest slate in steamy San Perdo Sula, flies to frigid Hamilton, then wraps up in San Salvador. The average temperature that week in the two Central American cities is around 85 degrees, meaning 60-to-70-degree swings for all three of the USMNT’s foes.
Add in more than 4,000 miles of travel between matches for each of the USMNT's January opponents (compared to just 983 for the Americans), and Berhalter isn’t too concerned about the cold weather.
"A large portion of our guys are playing in Europe. They’re playing in cold weather right now," the coach said last month. "They should be able to adapt pretty nicely.
"If it’s tough for us," he added, "what’s it going to be like for Honduras, coming from 85-90-degree temperatures, to go to Minnesota?"
And of course, there’s COVID to consider
The latest variant of the virus wreaked havoc on the sports world over the holidays, forcing dozens of games in major leagues across the globe to be postponed. Outbreaks have decimated entire rosters, leaving some teams without enough players to compete.
So what happens if a slew of players test positive during January’s 10-day international window?
Sources with knowledge of CONCACAF’s thinking told FOX Sports that rescheduling any of the January qualifiers would be nearly impossible. With the final window slated for March, the intercontinental playoffs set for June and leagues everywhere desperately trying to make up their own games, extra dates simply aren’t available.
Could that cause a team to forfeit if it's unable to play? Possibly. In the end, it would be FIFA’s call.
Everything possible will be done to get these games in — even if teams are heavily depleted. As of now, the matches are expected go ahead as planned.
However, there will be changes to the COVID protocols. Testing will once again be conducted daily, twice as frequently as in October and November. But under the revamped guidelines, anyone who tests positive but is asymptomatic must isolate for only five days, down from the previous 10.
In theory, a player who returns a positive test upon arrival could return for his country’s final two January matches. That couldn’t have happened under the old rules.
The additional safety measures could even help the USMNT. Starting Jan. 5., the Canadian province of Ontario, where the U.S.-Canada match will be played, is reducing capacity at outdoor sporting events by 50%.
Should those restrictions remain in place through the end of the month, the sold-out Canadian crowd of 25,000 expected Jan. 30 at Tim Horton’s Field would be cut in half.
One of the most prominent soccer journalists in North America, Doug McIntyre has covered United States men’s and women’s national teams in more than a dozen countries, including multiple FIFA World Cups. Before joining FOX Sports, the New York City native was a staff writer for Yahoo Sports and ESPN. Follow him on Twitter @ByDougMcIntyre.