World Cup 2022: USMNT's path to Qatar in March qualifying

By Doug McIntyre
FOX Sports Soccer Writer

With just three qualification matches remaining, the United States Men’s National Team pretty much know what they need to do to reach the 2022 World Cup in Qatar: Beat Panama at home March 27 (7 p.m. ET FS1/FOX Sports app/UniMas/TUDN).

Three measly points out of a possible nine in the United States' final three matches would almost certainly be enough for the Americans to finish CONCACAF’s eight-nation, double-round-robin tournament in the top three and claim a direct berth. Four points should do it for sure. (Technically, it's possible the U.S. could need more than four, but that's highly unlikely.)

Let's back up to that "almost certainly" bit for a second. It’s doing a lot of work here.

The good news for USMNT fans is that a whole bunch of things would have to go wrong for the U.S. to not qualify with at least 24 points from 14 Octagonal games. Gregg Berhalter’s team might not even need that many.

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But the bad news — as the Americans found out the hard way when they missed the 2018 World Cup, their first failure in 28 years — is that anything can happen in CONCACAF.

And often, it does.

So, let's game this out. A U.S. victory at Mexico on March 24, plus a Panama loss to Honduras and a Canada win or tie in Costa Rica that same night, would send the Americans to Qatar. While possible, that scenario is highly unlikely.

It’s not just that the U.S. have never won a qualifier in Mexico in 19 tries. It's also that already eliminated Honduras, the worst of the eight teams by far, will probably lose to a desperate Canaleros squad playing in front of their fans in Panama City. Plus, Canada is unbeaten so far, but Costa Rica is the toughest of the eight teams at home, with 10 wins and four ties in their past 15 games.

Meanwhile, the U.S. can’t count on getting any points in Mexico, where their all-time record in qualifying in 0W-16L-3T. The Americans can’t count on anything in Costa Rica, either; they’re 0W-9L-1T all time there and 0-6 (with a 1-17 goal differential) this century.

For the U.S., the most important game of this window — besides the absolutely must-win in Orlando versus Panama — could be the Costa Rica-Canada tilt March 24.

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Here’s why: It’s best to assume the U.S. will get the bare minimum of three points from this window. They could get more, sure. But that’s not what is most likely to happen.

Going by the outcomes that are most likely, a win against Panama would guarantee the U.S. a third-place finish — unless Costa Rica win their last three games. That isn’t too likely, either, but it’s possible. If Costa Rica beat the first-place Canadians at home, all bets are off for the U.S.

Now, the aging Ticos are a far cry from the team that was a shootout loss from reaching the World Cup semifinals in Brazil eight years ago. But Costa Rica have the best keeper in the competition in Keylor Navas, who can steal victories by himself. They’re more than capable of winning in El Salvador, which should be eliminated by then.

The U.S. would then need a win or a tie in their final game. Costa Rica have never not beaten the U.S. in a qualifier in San Jose.

As far as Mexico, it’s easy to see them winning their last three. El Tri have been unconvincing so far and especially at home, it’s true. And this brash, young USMNT also seem to have Mexico's number, having beaten their biggest rivals three straight times, including a comprehensive 2-0 triumph earlier in the Octagonal.

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But a loss for the U.S. at the Azteca is probably still the most likely outcome.

Mexico’s other two games are against the Salvadorans at home and hapless Honduras away. Mexico are the overwhelming favorites in both. And if Canada get only four points from their last three (loss in Costa Rica, home win over Jamaica, tie at Panama after clinching a spot in Qatar), the final five would look like this:

* Mexico: 30 points
* Canada: 29
* Costa Rica: 25
* United States: 24
* Panama: 21

That’s just one possibility, though. And even if it comes to pass, the U.S. would be favored to beat the Oceania rep (presumably New Zealand) in June’s intercontinental playoff in Doha.

We’re not there yet, though. There are always surprises in World Cup qualifying. The U.S. could make history in Mexico or Costa Rica. They could still win the group, as they did in the 2010 and 2014 cycles before finishing fifth four years ago.

The Americans are very much in control of their destiny heading into the final window. Beat Panama, and they’re probably good. Lightning isn’t likely to strike twice.

Or is it?

One of the most prominent soccer journalists in North America, Doug McIntyre has covered United States men’s and women’s national teams in more than a dozen countries, including multiple FIFA World Cups. Before joining FOX Sports, the New York City native was a staff writer for Yahoo Sports and ESPN. Follow him on Twitter @ByDougMcIntyre.