World Cup 2022: USMNT vs. Mexico qualifier marks end of an era
By Martin Rogers
FOX Sports Columnist
Whatever the season, whatever is going down, there is one guaranteed way for an American soccer fan to quickly spark a feisty argument.
It is, quite simply, to suggest that the United States’ rivalry with Mexico – the latest edition of which takes place at Mexico City’s famed Estadio Azteca on Thursday – is the best in world soccer.
Such a proclamation is bold, sure, and destined to generate a hotly contested response from fellow conversationalists loyal to historic European rivalries such as England/Germany, or South American tussles like Argentina/Brazil.
It could also receive backlash from the still significant portion of the U.S. soccer fanbase that always insists that something from overseas is automatically better than something local, by default.
On Thursday, the two teams head into a clash that once again has drastic repercussions for both of their World Cup qualifying hopes. It comes at a time of political intrigue between the countries and provides more reason for dueling sets of fans to snipe and snarl at each other over bragging rights.
The debate in favor of U.S./Mexico being a battle to compare with any other, globally, has plenty of meat behind it.
"The reason I tell people it is the greatest one is because of all the ways our two countries are intertwined," former national team star and FOX Sports soccer analyst Alexi Lalas told me. "There is the proximity, the relationship we have with Mexico, all the ways Mexico influences our culture and entertainment, politics and sports.
"Having that play out on an athletic field is incredibly compelling. It is pure theater and drama. But a lot of people are feeling that in some ways it is the end of an era."
Lalas is right. For the rivalry has largely evolved around key games such as Thursday’s matchup in the final round of World Cup qualifying in the CONCACAF region. This time, the American squad and Mexico both find themselves on 21 points with three matches to go. With home advantage here and easier assignments in their final two games, Mexico is assumed to have one foot in Qatar already.
The U.S., still due to face Panama (17 points) and Costa Rica (16 points) over the next week, has significant work to do to avoid sliding into a tricky intercontinental playoff or worse, getting bumped out of the qualifying positions altogether.
A scenario such as this week’s is unlikely to play out in the future. During the next qualifying series, for the 2026 tournament, Mexico, USA and Canada will all receive automatic bids as the co-hosts, eliminating the need for regional qualifying.
And by the time the 2030 campaign rolls around, the World Cup will be firmly entrenched as a 48-team event (up from 32), and CONCACAF will have six allocated places rather than the current 3.5. That almost certainly means a completely altered qualification format, probably with smaller groups, fewer matches and the leading teams in the region separated by seeding.
"The Mexico qualifiers have been among the highlights of my life as a sports fan," American supporter Jordan Colley, from Columbus, Ohio, told me. Colley, 45, has attended three home qualifiers between the U.S. and El Tri, and one in Mexico City. "If it shakes out the way we expect it to, it’s not going to be the same," he added.
There will be other chances for the teams to meet, in events such as the Nations League and Gold Cup, yet nothing can match World Cup repercussions and that’s how it’s always going to be. History in the series has offered a huge advantage to the team playing at home, and Gregg Berhalter’s Americans go into Thursday knowing all about the painful record which has seen them never win a qualifier at the Azteca.
Anything other than a defeat would be a spectacular result that would greatly enhance the team’s chances of atoning for the disaster of four years ago, where the group missed the 2018 World Cup in Russia thanks to a qualifying meltdown.
However, a loss to Mexico combined with victories for Panama and Costa Rica on the same night, and things would become decidedly uncomfortable.
"We are scarred," added Lalas. "We are understandably angst-filled because of 2018. We know the team should find a way to get across the line, but experience tells us that anything can happen."
Berhalter’s squad has beaten Mexico three times in a row in various competitions, and adding another one here would be the most dramatic and emphatic way of reassuring American fans that things are coming together quite nicely behind a youthful team led by Christian Pulisic.
It would also be the ideal way to sign off the rivalry in its current form, adding to a litany of memories.
Lalas recalls getting agonizingly kicked in the private parts during one especially fierce U.S.-Mexico showdown. Countless players across generations tell stories of being pelted with fruit and beer cups on trips to Azteca. Landon Donovan’s goal in a 2-0 victory over Mexico in the Round of 16 at the 2002 World Cup is still most people’s idea of the top moment in program history.
It’s not all going away, but it’s going to look a little different. And don’t think for a second that the current crop of players is not immune to what this means.
"There is an importance to every single time you step on the field against Mexico," American midfielder Tyler Adams told reporters. "You don’t want to get too caught up in records, just the feeling you have when you win a rivalry game in amazing.
"We don’t want to let down our nation, you are battling it out, you are remembering every single moment what you are playing for and the importance that it holds."
Martin Rogers is a columnist for FOX Sports and the author of the FOX Sports Insider Newsletter. You can subscribe to the newsletter here.