World Cup 2022 odds: Croatia stuns betting favorite Brazil, shifts title lines

By Patrick Everson
Updated Dec. 9, 2022 4:02 p.m. ET

Down goes Brazil!

World Cup title odds have a new favorite after Croatia vanquished Brazil in a riveting quarterfinal.

Pre-tournament, a bevy of sportsbook operators noted that Brazil was among those taking the most tickets and the most money. That action came despite the squad's relatively short price as the favorite in odds to win the World Cup.

Brazil was the odds-on-betting favorite (+170 at FOX Bet) going into Friday's matchup against Croatia.

Now, the bookmakers are counting up all that cash in one of the bigger World Cup betting decisions so far in this 32-team soccer showdown.

Here is a look at how Brazil bowing out impacted the betting market.

Big Win All the Way Around

It's not just that Brazil exited the tournament, but it's how it happened. Oddsmakers couldn't have drawn it up better. Friday's match was a scoreless draw after 90 minutes plus injury time, and it was 1-1 after 30 minutes of overtime. Croatia then won on penalty kicks 4-2 to advance.

At FOX Bet, the Draw was +350 in the three-way betting market.

"It was huge for the books," BetMGM sports trader Seamus Magee. "It crushes a ton of parlays to Argentina today, too."

Indeed, in Friday's other quarterfinal, Argentina – another popular team throughout the tournament – meets Netherlands. Plenty of parlays tied Brazil to Argentina.

In the Brazil-Croatia match, Draw was a perfect outcome in BetMGM's three-way betting. Brazil, a -275 favorite, took 49% of tickets and 84% of money. Croatia, a hefty +750 underdog, got 39% of tickets but only 12% of money. Draw, at +380, took just 12% of bets and 4% of money.

And in the two-way market of to advance – whether in 90 minutes plus injury time, overtime or on penalty kicks – Brazil was -650 and attracted 48% of tickets/84% of money. Croatia (+400) got 52% of tickets but just 16% of money.

Seeing the Futures

The World Cup championship futures odds quickly shifted on Brazil's exit. At PointsBet USA, France is now the +225 betting favorite to win it all, followed by Argentina at +300, Portugal at +450 and England at +500.

Croatia currently sits at +900 to win it all at FOX Bet.

"Brazil had the most bets and handle (money), so we were relieved to see them get bounced," PointsBet USA sports analyst Mike Korn said.

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He's based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.

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