World Cup 2022: Assessing the field for Qatar one year out

By Doug McIntyre
FOX Sports Soccer Writer

Editor's note: The 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar begins Nov. 21, 2022, only on FOX networks. All this week, we'll have stories and videos counting down to the one-year-out mark.

Qatar 2022 is barely a year away, and with the conclusion of the November qualifying window Tuesday, we’re starting to see a much clearer picture of what the 32-nation field will look like.

Let’s break it down by tiers.

Tier 1: Teams that are in

Argentina, Brazil, Belgium, Croatia, Denmark, England, France, Germany, Qatar, Serbia, Spain, Switzerland, The Netherlands

Before October’s international break, only one team had secured a spot at the next World Cup: Qatar, which qualified automatically as the host. Then four-time champion Germany became the first squad to play its way in, with Denmark punching their ticket the next day.

Another 10 teams clinched this month, including some of the most decorated names in the sport. Brazil were the first to qualify from South America. Traditional heavyweights The Netherlands return to the greatest show in sports after missing out in 2018; four years earlier, they finished third. Defending champion France and 2018 runner-up Croatia are both back, as are top-ranked Belgium and former tournament winners England and Spain.

Lionel Messi will be in Qatar after his Argentina squad clinched a berth with Tuesday’s scoreless tie against the Brazilians. But Cristiano Ronaldo might not be. After Sunday’s stunning 2-1 win over Portugal in Lisbon put Serbia in, Ronaldo & Co. must navigate a 12-team playoff in March to claim one of Europe’s last three places.

Tier 2: Teams on the right track

Canada, Colombia, Ecuador, Iran, Japan, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, USA

Canada haven't been to the World Cup since 1986 and hadn’t even been in the region’s final qualifying round since 1997. But following an endlessly entertaining 2-1 win over Mexico in snowy Edmonton on Tuesday, the upstart Canadians sit atop CONCACAF with more than half of the qualifiers played. The victory moved Canada past both El Tri and the United States in the eight-nation standings.

The Americans remain in good shape to qualify following their victory over Mexico last week and Tuesday’s tie in Jamaica. Meanwhile, El Tri holds North and Central America and the Caribbean’s third and final automatic spot.

South America remains arguably the toughest place on the planet to qualify. With Argentina and Brazil already in, just two automatic berths remain in CONMEBOL; currently, they’re occupied by Ecuador and Colombia, with Peru bound for an intercontinental playoff next year as things stand.

In Asia, the teams on track to make it are Iran, South Korea, Saudi Arabia and Japan.

Tier 3: It’s a coin flip

Algeria, Australia, Egypt, Ghana, Italy, Nigeria, Portugal, Senegal, Sweden

This is where things get interesting. Some of these proud soccer countries won’t make it.

Because the draws for the March playoffs in Europe and Africa (not to mention the two intercontinental playoffs in June) haven’t happened yet, it’s difficult to handicap this field. We still have no idea who will play whom.

What we do know is that a team such as four-time champion Italy, which just won the Euros, is in danger of not qualifying for the second World Cup in a row. Sweden topped the Azzurri over two legs in the playoffs last time before going on a deep run at the main event in Russia. The Swedes are also back for another two-leg, all-or-nothing series.

The 10 remaining African teams will play home-and-homes next year to determine that continent’s five reps; Ivory Coast, historically one of Africa’s better squads, are already out.

Meanwhile, Australia could have to beat another team from the Asian region before even getting to an intercontinental playoff, where they could face two matches against a battle-tested South American foe.

Tier 4: The long shots

Czech Republic, Mali, New Zealand, Panama, Peru, Poland, Russia, Scotland, Turkey, Wales

Everyone remembers the Cinderella stories, such as Trinidad and Tobago’s first World Cup trip in 2006 or tiny Iceland not only making the cut in 2018, but also tying Messi’s Argentina in the group stage en route to the knockout round.

They’re unforgettable because they’re rare. The 10 teams listed above aren’t the same sort of minnows; with the exception of Mali, all of them have been to a World Cup before. Many, though, have waited a long time.

The Czechs have been bounced in qualifying in each of the past three cycles. Turkey haven't been back since somehow finishing third in 2002. Scotland, once a perennial participant, are looking for their first World Cup berth since 1998, while Wales’ one and only appearance came 30 years before that.

Whatever the matchups in those high-stakes playoff series, goals will be difficult to come by. That probably means a team such as Poland — which boasts perhaps the purest scorer in the game in Bayern Munich striker Robert Lewandowski — probably stands as good a chance as anyone of defying the odds.

One of the most prominent soccer journalists in North America, Doug McIntyre has covered United States men’s and women’s national teams in more than a dozen countries, including multiple FIFA World Cups. Before joining FOX Sports, the New York City native was a staff writer for Yahoo Sports and ESPN. Follow him on Twitter @ByDougMcIntyre.