What's next for USA? Mapping out its daunting path to Women's World Cup final
It so, so nearly wasn't the case, but the United States is alive and kicking at this Women's World Cup — even if the aforementioned kicking wasn't particularly accurate, cohesive or confidence-inducing during the team's disappointing 0-0 draw against Portugal.
Survival is the name of the game in the group stage of any major tournament, but the Americans stretched that theory to its absolute limit, hanging on grimly to book a place in the Round of 16, and now embark on what they hope will be a brand-new journey with a markedly different script.
Up next will be Olympic silver medalist Sweden (coverage begins at 4 a.m. ET, with kickoff at 5 a.m. ET on FOX and the FOX Sports app). After that, do we even dare look ahead, given that Sweden is the world No. 2, beat the USA in both the Rio and Tokyo Olympics, and just rattled off a comprehensive thumping of Italy?
Yes, we do.
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Vlatko Andonovski's squad is struggling and stuttering, no question about it, but this is still the two-time defending World Cup champion we are talking about here, and whatever the current prevailing narrative, the USA sits only four games removed from an historic three-peat.
So, let’s plot it out. If the Sweden showdown can be successfully navigated, a quarterfinal would beckon between the USWNT and the winner of the meeting between Japan and Norway, a Round of 16 clash in which Japan will be a massive favorite, on account of its stunning performance in group play.
Japan, 2015 World Cup runner-up and 2012 Olympic finalist, and No. 1 in the current FoxSports.com Women's World Cup power rankings, would be a massive challenge.
Beyond that, a semifinal in Auckland would be in front of them, featuring possibly the looming specter of Spain, which headed into the tournament as second-favorite and with the star power of Alexia Putellas and Aitana Bonmati.
Or possibly a rematch with the Netherlands, which gave the Americans such a hard time in the group.
[Portugal draw makes it clear: The world no longer fears the USWNT]
That's who the Americans need to get by to get to the final. Here's what they need to do to accomplish it. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to tell you drastic improvement is required.
The team needs to find its mojo, while former captain Carli Lloyd says a lack of passion is an issue and also questioned whether the players' fitness levels were where they should be.
"They're playing to not lose versus playing to win," Lloyd told FOX's post-game show. "That's the difference that I see. I am just not seeing that passion. I am just seeing a very lackluster (showing), uninspiring, taking it for granted."
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A lift, both in terms of emotion and raw performance, is an absolute must. There is some recent precedent, the 2015 squad came in for early criticism, before coach Jill Ellis shifted Lloyd's role — and the rest is history.
Could a tactical tweak here have a similar effect? After a third straight disappointing performance, Alex Morgan's place in the lineup will come under further question, while the inability of the midfield to consistently win and keep hold of possession is deeply troubling.
And all this talk of a route to the final will count for nothing unless Sweden is handled in Melbourne on Sunday (5 a.m. on FOX and the FOX Sports app, with coverage beginning at 4 a.m. ET).
[Can USA still flip the switch? 'It's not like we don't have the pieces']
The Scandinavian side had a rough start to the competition, falling behind against South Africa before squeezing to a 2-1 victory thanks to a late winner.
The improvement to game two was massive, overwhelming Italy with an early burst and continuing to pile on the goals, five of them, unanswered.
Stina Blackstenius and Kosovare Asllani provide a ton of quality and experience up front, while the backline, marshalled by Amanda Ilestedt and Magdalena Eriksson, is solid and dependable.
Coach Peter Gerhardsson has often repeated how much confidence he has in his group, and it is that specific trait, for long a hallmark of the USWNT program, that needs to be rediscovered by the Americans again now.
"(We need to be) a little bit calmer," veteran Megan Rapinoe told FOX's Jenny Taft. "Obviously put our chances away when we get them. But yeah, big game. Big game next time."
Martin Rogers is a columnist for FOX Sports and the author of the FOX Sports Insider newsletter. Follow him on Twitter @MRogersFOX and subscribe to the daily newsletter.