USA-Panama betting preview: 'Pulisic to score will be be most-bet prop'
With a successful Copa América debut under its belt, the U.S. men’s national team is gearing up for match No. 2, against Panama. And once again, Team USA is a notable favorite in the betting market.
That’s not a surprise to BetMGM trading manager and soccer aficionado Seamus Magee.
"The Americans took care of business against a poor Bolivia side," Magee said of Sunday’s 2-0 victory. "I thought they played a good brand of soccer and were unlucky not to score more. The real litmus test will be when they play Uruguay. That’s when we’ll learn about this team."
But that match isn’t until Monday, as Panama is the next order of business for the USA. Magee provided his betting insights for this 6 p.m. ET Thursday match on FOX and the FOX Sports app.
Stretching Out
After Team USA’s Sunday shutout of Bolivia, BetMGM opened the three-way moneyline market at USA -225/Panama +600/Draw +333.
The American side stretched out to -310 at one point, and the three-way odds are now at USA -275/Panama +700/Draw +400.
As of Wednesday night, betting on this match is mimicking that of Sunday’s U.S.-Bolivia tilt.
"I anticipate a similar handle to the Bolivia game. Handle wasn’t as big as you’d think for that match," Magee said. "While the Panama match is important, it’s a game that most are expecting the U.S. to win with ease."
That said, as was the case Sunday against Bolivia, Magee expects USA tickets and money to pick up throughout the day Thursday, leading into the match at Atlanta’s Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
Other Ways To Play
A significant portion of Thursday’s action won’t be on the three-way moneyline. The public betting masses often aren’t keen on laying -275, meaning it takes a $275 bet to win $100 ($375 total payout). So the masses will look for more value in alternate markets, as they did on Sunday for the U.S.-Bolivia match.
Two options attractive to bettors: USA -1.5 goals, and the Over on the total of 2.5 goals. The price on the U.S. at -1.5 goals is even money, so a $100 bet would profit $100 ($200 total payout) if the USMNT wins by at least two goals. That’s much more appealing than Team USA’s -275 moneyline.
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The total of 2.5 is priced at Over -135/Under -105 at BetMGM.
"There’s going to be a lot of spread betting and a lot on Over 2.5 goals," Magee said.
Further, bettors are again jumping on player prop markets. Those who bet Christian Pulisic to score the match’s first goal or anytime goal on Sunday were nicely rewarded. The American star scored in the third minute vs. Bolivia, cashing both those tickets.
BetMGM has Pulisic +400 to be the first goalscorer in the USA-Panama match, so a $100 bet would profit $400 ($500 total payout) if he does that for the second straight match. Pulisic’s odds actually make him the fourth choice on that prop, behind three American teammates: Haji Wright, Ricardo Pepi and Folarin Bolagun, who are all at +360.
But Pulisic is the more-known brand, so he’ll be bet well to score the first goal.
On anytime goal, Pulisic is +150, which customers will also find attractive, as they did on Sunday.
"Anytime Pulisic takes the field, he’s going to take bets to score in the game. Pulisic to score will be be the most-bet prop on Thursday, given his form and [customers’] recent betting patterns," Magee said.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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