Penalty takers are finding success down the middle at World Cup 2022
DOHA, Qatar — There will be detailed, precise, algorithmic, intrinsic studies done on the penalty shootouts that have taken place during this World Cup, because that’s the way of things now with saber metrics having invaded soccer and tightening its grip with each passing day.
Just so you know, this is not one of those studies.
This piece of research masquerading as a hopefully entertaining column is more of the scribble-your-findings-on-a-scrap-of-paper variety, but, barring human error or faulty eyesight, it has produced a clear guideline for any player blessed/cursed with the chance to take one from the spot over the tournament’s remaining games.
Send it down the middle.
It doesn’t matter how. Crash it into the underside of the net’s roof. Slide it gently along the turf. Clip it deftly, Panenka-style, in the mold of ice-willed Moroccan Achraf Hakimi, who used that exact method to dump Spain out of the event in the round of 16.
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Get it there however you like, but if you want an iron clad way of ensuring you score for your team, don’t shoot to the left. And don’t shoot to the right. Stick it down the center, exactly where the goalkeeper is standing, because by the time you strike it they'll already be diving out of the way.
Over the course of the knockout bracket so far, there have been four penalty shootouts necessitated by the teams being tied at the end of both regulation and an additional period of 30 minutes extra-time.
In those four shootouts there have been a total of 33 penalties taken. Of those, 20 have been scored, 13 missed or saved. Each has seen a heroic goalkeeping stand, all memorable, from Croatia’s Dominik Livaković (twice), Argentina’s Emi Martínez and Morocco hero Bono.
There have been some unforgettable misses, too. Brazil fans will never be able to clear the sight — and sound — of Marquinhos rattling his effort against the post as his team went down.
The emotions are real and raw, but the numbers are chillingly striking. Only seven of those 33 kicks have gone down the middle and every one of the seven has scored.
Any other location and it is virtually a coin flip. When the kicker aims to the left of the goal there is a success rate of 9 from 17. Shooting to the right has offered a paltry return of four scores from nine attempts.
Every winning team in the shootouts so far has attempted and scored at least one in the center of the goal. Of the four losers, only Brazil tried it, when Pedro knocked one in.
It was good enough for one of the best players ever, as Lionel Messi rolled his straight and slow against the Netherlands, with giant goalkeeper Andries Noppert fooled into going to his left.
"I wanted to give us the best start I could," Messi said later, having followed his successful kick with a roar, fists clenched, toward the Argentina fans and words of encouragement his own goalkeeper Martínez.
As with any trend, things can change, especially if a niche tactic starts to get too popular.
However, staying put in the middle provides a significant mental hurdle for goalkeepers to overcome. Subconsciously, a player desperate to do all he can to help his team may have a hard time standing still and doing nothing, as opposed to diving with all his might as picking one side or the other.
"It is difficult," former Manchester United goalkeeper Peter Schmeichel told RT in a discussion on the topic during the 2018 World Cup. "Especially if it is the last penalty. You don’t want to be just left standing there as your country goes out of the World Cup."
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Martin Rogers is a columnist for FOX Sports and the author of the FOX Sports Insider newsletter. Follow him on Twitter @MRogersFOX and subscribe to the daily newsletter.