MLS Cup Playoffs: FC Cincinnati eying first final appearance while LAFC looks to return

The two teams that will square off for the 2023 MLS Cup will be determined on Saturday in the Eastern and Western Conference championships, with FC Cincinnati hosting in-state rival Columbus Crew in the former and current Cup holder LAFC welcoming the upstart Houston Dynamo to Los Angeles in the nightcap.

With a trip to the Dec. 9 final (4 p.m. ET on FOX and FOX Deportes) at stake, here's how Saturday's playoff semifinals break down.

FC Cincinnati-Columbus Crew, 6 p.m. ET

As if either team needed extra motivation, the winner of Ohio's so-called "Hell is Real" grudge match will host MLS Cup — no small carrot for Supporters' Shield winner FCC or the 2020 Cup champion Crew.

Playing at home throughout the postseason as the No. 1 overall seed, Cincy is the obvious favorite. But that advantage might not count for much in a do-or-die derby, and Pat Noonan's team was dealt a significant blow on Wednesday when the league announced that FCC center back Matt Miazga — who last week was named MLS's defender of the year — would be suspended for the remainder of the playoffs for allegedly entering the referees' changing room following Cincinnati's first round win over the New York Red Bulls.

Noonan's side wasn't overly convincing in its controversial conference semifinal triumph over the Philadelphia Union. They were probably lucky to advance, as television replays appeared to show that Yerson Mosquera's game-winning goal should've been ruled offside.

Meantime, Columbus heads into Saturday's tilt riding high after beating Orlando City 2-0 in extra time in the quarters – the Lions' first loss at home in eight months. With star striker Cucho Hernández in blistering form — the Colombian has scored in each of his last three away games — the Crew are capable of pulling off another upset. But even with Miazga out, it won't be easy: the Yellow and Black are winless in their last five trips to the Queen City, including a 3-2 defeat in its most recent visit in May.

Prediction: 3-2 FC Cincinnati

LAFC-Houston Dynamo, 9:30 p.m. ET

As the lowest remaining seed, the Dynamo have been the Cinderella story of these playoffs.  Houston boasts a midfield led by longtime Mexican National Team mainstay Héctor Herrera. It was Herrera who set up Franco Escobar's game winner over Sporting Kansas City in the previous round with his 19th assist this year. The Texans also beat LAFC in both of the clubs' regular season meetings in 2023, both times by shutout, with one of those victories coming on the road. And under first year coach Ben Olsen, the Dynamo have already won a trophy, beating Inter Miami (minus the injured Lionel Messi) to claim the U.S. Open Cup in September.

Yet it's still hard to pick Houston against the defending champs. LAFC, which knocked out the Sounders in Seattle to get here despite not playing particularly well in that game, just seems to know how to succeed in the playoffs. After finishing on top of the MLS mountain in 2022, it feels as if Steve Cherundolo's side has been waiting for this moment all year.

Now all Carlos Vela-captained LAFC has to do is win one more game at home, where they posted an 11W-4L-3T record during the regular season and scored five times in their only playoff encounter this fall, to get back to the final.  Even with Herrera & Co. expected to control the bulk of the possession, LAFC has the best striker in the league up front in runaway Golden Boot winner Dénis Bouanga. Bouanga has proven to be the sort of player who can win a match by himself — even if he gets only one scoring chance. Bouanga has 10 goals in his last six games and four in three playoff contests so far. He could be the difference again. 

Prediction: 2-0 LAFC

Doug McIntyre is a soccer writer for FOX Sports. Before joining FOX Sports in 2021, he was a staff writer with ESPN and Yahoo Sports and he has covered United States men's and women's national teams at multiple FIFA World Cups. Follow him on Twitter @ByDougMcIntyre.