Is Gold Cup a harbinger for USMNT World Cup success?
More than five years have passed since the announcement was made, which means hardcore American soccer fans — as well as those who tune into the sport a little more sporadically — have had time to get used to the fact that the FIFA World Cup will be coming to these parts pretty soon.
The 2026 tournament will be a watershed moment in any number of ways — being the first with 48 teams, the first to have three hosts (with Mexico and Canada joining the party) and the first to be held here since 1994, back when soccer had little to no traction in America.
Given that the beautiful game now has a strong and increasingly upward-moving trajectory here, we can only imagine where the extra momentum of a home World Cup will lift things.
But while few doubt the World Cup will be a spectacular show with a loud, splashy, North American twist, the question everyone wants to know is the one for which there is incomplete information.
How will the United States men's team fare?
The possibilities are delicious, right? If, somehow, the USA could shine brightest at its own tournament and go on a run that captivated the country, the likes of Christian Pulisic and perhaps new stars smashing in the goals, it would be quite something.
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Working out the potential for that kind of outcome is a puzzle with many pieces — and the time to start paying attention is right now.
Assessing the future World Cup viability of any national team is a game played by fans of every team, everywhere, in the years separating every World Cup. In all honesty, there is always an element of guesswork and unpredictability attached to any such prognosis.
Yet when it comes to the United States this time, there will be a key difference. Being a host nation gets you an automatic bid and means you don't have to qualify for the tournament. The upside is you don't have to go through the gauntlet of the qualification process, a long and drawn-out rollercoaster that the USA was unable to pick its way through in 2018.
The downside is that said qualifiers are sometimes — but not always — an important barometer of a team's ability to handle pressure, its ability to gel as a unit and its prospects of performing at its best when World Cup time rolls around. The results from CONCACAF qualifying aren't always parallel to the performance of this region's teams in the World Cup, but going through the experience has long been seen as a key element of a player earning their national team stripes.
With qualifying removed, we need to look in different directions to figure out how the team will be looking under head coach Gregg Berhalter, who two weeks ago was signed up to a long-term deal that will run through the 2026 event.
And what's happening at this moment, with the ongoing CONCACAF Gold Cup being the first of three summer tournaments that will take place each year leading into the World Cup, is a crucial step.
[Takeaways from USMNT's 6-0 Gold Cup rout of Trinidad and Tobago]
"We're trying to expose as many players as possible to tournament competition," interim coach B.J. Callaghan told reporters. "Some have a lot of experiences that we continue to build on, while others are just starting out. In all cases, it will be valuable for the group moving forward."
The current Gold Cup is the first part of the journey. The squad for the tournament is a young group featuring several players who have designs on becoming established members of the set-up.
Shining brightest of all so far has been Jesus Ferreira, who rebounded from a testing World Cup experience to collect back-to-back hat-tricks, as the USA dominated St. Kitts and Nevis and Trinidad and Tobago to top Group A.
Winger Cade Cowell, just 19, also gave an exciting taste of what he has to offer and is firmly on the radar of several European clubs.
Next up is a quarterfinal clash Sunday against the second-place team from Group D — potentially regional rival Canada.
"The format mimics a lot of what you'll see at a World Cup, where you're moving into a city for two or three days and moving to the next city," Callaghan added. "Exposing some of the younger players to this will give them a great experience as they go through furthering their career, trying to make the 2026 World Cup team."
The key will be to try to build momentum throughout the path to 2026. Next summer, the Copa America (to be broadcast on FOX platforms) will provide a more stern test, as South America's continental tournament comes to the United States. Then, the Americans will have the chance to duel against heavyweights such as the fully stocked Argentina and Brazil squads.
In 2025, the Gold Cup is expected to expand and incorporate international teams invited from South America, Europe and Africa. A year out, that would be another powerful indicator of how Berhalter's group is looking in regard to the World Cup.
It was a little over six years ago that Bruce Arena, then the head coach of the team, dropped a big statement in a conference call with reporters. By 2026, Arena said, the team could be a real contender to win the whole thing.
Three years later, and with the 2018 debacle in the books, Arena walked back his comments and said it was "stupid" to think the USA could win a World Cup anytime soon.
It is an inexact science, truly. Which statement was true? We won't know for a while. But it's time to start taking notice.
Martin Rogers is a columnist for FOX Sports and the author of the FOX Sports Insider newsletter. Follow him on Twitter @MRogersFOX and subscribe to the daily newsletter.