Euro 2016: Scotland under pressure against a reenergized Germany
Germany's return to top-spot in their Euro 2016 qualifying group was precisely what Joachim Low had demanded this week ahead of a trip to Scotland on Monday. A much-needed double for Bayern Munich's Mario Gotze and one for Thomas Muller secured a 3-1 win over Poland who scored through Robert Lewandowski. For the Germans, Friday's encounter versus the Poles was enormous, a match that would ultimately define the mood going into the Championships next summer.
But that result, combined with Scotland's disappointing 1-0 loss to Georgia, makes Monday's game (live from 2 ET, FS1) a critical one for both teams.
Germany now leads Group D on 16 points from seven matches, while Poland's promising start has essentially secured a place in France next summer. The battle between Scotland and the Republic of Ireland is fascinating --€“ the pair are separated by one point with the Scots leading on head-to-head following a 1-0 home win and 1-1 draw in Dublin.
But with home games against Germany and Poland to come, Scotland will need to turn it on at Hampden. Germany's arrival in Scotland is highly-anticipated; feeding the energy of what will be a 50,000 sell-out at Hampden Park. "We know the atmosphere in Scotland will be intense," said Joachim Low this week.
The last encounter in Dortmund was a 2-1 win for Germany, and in 2003, their last visit to Glasgow was a 1-1 draw in qualifying for the 2004 European Championships. Scotland's last home win against the Germans was in May 1959, a 3-2 win.
Staying on top
Described as a 'below-par' year for the world champions since their triumph in Rio, Germany's campaign had threatened to go off-the-rails with a 2-0 defeat in Warsaw and a 1-1 draw at home to the Republic of Ireland. Performances in wins over Gibraltar away and at home to Scotland resembled a team fatigued and needing some tweaking.
For most of the World Cup-winning side, this summer has provided a welcome break from the exhausting demands of club and international football. Since then, there has been a difference in how Germany are able to manage their intensity for 90 minutes rather than in short bursts. Additionally, minor tactical tweaks make Germany look reenergized.
The introduction of Jonas Hector of Cologne at left-back, replacing Benedikt Howedes, has created an improved equilibrium in what has been a shaky defense of late. The 25-year-old has carried his brilliant form from his Bundesliga side into the national team where his marauding runs down the wing and good support play should have cemented his place in the team. But as Muller noted after the match, "Poland had enough chances to win five games."
In midfield, Toni Kroos and Bastian Schweinsteiger remain the main enforcers, but the resurgence of Borussia Dortmund's Ilkay Gundogan adds an extra dimension to Low's options. Gundogan, returning from 18 months of injury troubles, provides power and thrust in midfield and was an impressive substitute in the win over Poland.
The three points in Frankfurt puts Germany in pole position for France, a serious confidence-booster for the world champions who had endured a fairly challenging 12 months.
Pressure turns on Scots
Scotland's defeat in Georgia, meanwhile, has plunged the side into a problematic situation. The defeat in Tbilisi means that if results go according to plan for them and Ireland, there will be little between the sides going into the final two matchdays of the qualifying campaign. Scotland will more than likely have to take something from Poland or Germany on home soil.
The loss in Georgia was akin to the 2007 defeat to Georgia where Scotland was similarly closing on qualification until the surprise defeat. Strachan's team failed to hit the target with a shot over 90 minutes and showed the same signs of naivety as Scottish clubs teams who compete in European competition.
Preparations won't be significantly disrupted by delayed travel to Glasgow from Georgia this weekend, but the several hours in the air won't be ideal given the criticism coming their way in the aftermath of the loss. Strachan's tactics were called into question, while the insipid attacking play has been consistent throughout the campaign.
What happens next for the Dark Blues will decide their fate in this campaign. Scotland's squad offers the coach little room for maneuvring tactically, with the Scots looking to be strong on the counterattack on Monday.
With the group now shaping up as most expected, Scotland's match with Germany has grown in extra significance -- if it needed to -- as they look to reach a major finals for the first time since the 1998 World Cup in France.