2026 World Cup Odds: 'USA Winning On Penalties Would Be Best Outcome'
Oddsmakers at American sportsbooks expected substantial support for the USA in World Cup odds.
However, wagering went well beyond substantial in the group stage, and it’s continuing in the USA vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina odds for Wednesday night’s Round of 32 match.
"Early signs were there, before the tournament, that there was a bit of patriotic money," Caesars Sports head of soccer trading Mark Bickerdike said. "Then given how the U.S. started, we saw quite an influx.
"It’s half understandable, but equally, we were surprised to see the scale of action. It’s great to see this level of engagement, though."
Bickerdike helps dive into USA-Bosnia odds and the status of the U.S. in World Cup futures odds.
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Market Settles
Following the USA’s 3-2 loss to Türkiye on a goal in the waning moments of second-half injury time, Caesars Sports quickly posted USA-Bosnia and Herzegovina odds.
With the tournament now at the knockout stage, there were two main markets: the three-way moneyline for 90 minutes plus injury time and To Qualify, for which team advances to the Round of 16.
The three-way moneyline opened at USA -190/Bosnia and Herzegovina +525/Draw +295. But those odds proved to be too light.
"The market overreacted to the Türkiye defeat," Bickerdike said, noting the U.S. should’ve been a larger favorite.
That’s now the case. As of Tuesday evening, about a day before Wednesday’s 8 p.m. ET kickoff on FOX, it’s USA -275/Bosnia and Herzegovina +750/Draw +370.
"It took a little time for the market to settle," Bickerdike said. "It’s also likely that Christian Pulisic is going to start, as well. So it’s now a fairer reflection of what the prices should be."
In the To Qualify odds, Caesars opened at USA -390/Bosnia and Herzegovina +305 and stretched as far as USA -625/Bosnia and Herzegovina +425.
On Tuesday night, it’s USA -560/Bosnia and Herzegovina +360.
Money From The Masses
Once again, the public betting masses are firing away on the USA.
"Particularly in the To Qualify market, where 91.4% of money is on the USA. It’s one-way traffic," Bickerdike said. "On the three-way, there’s a little bit more on Bosnia, 24% of tickets and 14% of money.
"That’s the highest percentage opposing the USA so far in this tournament."
Team USA is taking 68% of tickets and 82% of money in three-way action, with Draw collecting the final 8% of tickets and 4% of money.
"It’s a good matchup for the U.S., in terms of playing styles. I’d be confident if I was a U.S. fan," Bickerdike said.
Caesars has the total at 2.5 goals, with the Over a plenty popular -132 favorite. In fact, bettors are also hitting the Over on alternate totals, as well.
"Most of our liability is on Over 2.5. And we have quite a bit of liability on Over 4.5," Bickerdike said.
So Caesars is certainly looking for a low-scoring match. More so, though, the book wants overtime.
"Absolutely, a draw in 90 minutes is preferred, regardless of the result after that," Bickerdike said. "For continued engagement, the USA winning on penalties would be the best outcome."
Futures Forecast
When this 48-team tournament began on June 11, Team USA was +5000 in Caesars’ World Cup championship futures odds. The Americans improved to +4000 after the 4-1 win over Paraguay, then to +3000 after the 2-0 win vs. Australia.
With the 3-2 loss to Türkiye in the final group match, the U.S. slid out slightly to +3000.
"This adjustment reflects both their loss to Türkiye and a tougher projected route to the final," Bickerdike said. "Despite this, customer support has remained strong, and the USA continues to be one of the most popular selections in the futures market.
"The USA represents our biggest liability."
Thanks to Germany and the Netherlands suffering upset losses on Monday — to Paraguay and Morocco, respectively — the Americans are now top 10 in World Cup futures. The USA and Colombia are the co-ninth choice at Caesars.