Will the Indians keep Jimenez?

Over the past month, one of the hottest pitchers in the American League has been Cleveland Indians pitcher Ubaldo Jimenez.
The numbers speak for themselves - Jimenez is 2-3 with a 2.32 ERA over his last five outings, with an average of 10.7 strikeouts per nine innings. Since the All Star break, he is 3-5 with a 2.22 ERA in eight starts, and overall he is 10-9 with a 3.79 ERA.
Not bad for a pitcher that struggled mightily in 2012 - he finished 9-17 with a 5.40 ERA – which included a brutal second half, going 1-10 with a 6.62 ERA.
The turnaround in Jimenez’s performance is a big reason why the Indians have found success in 2013. With fellow right-handed starter Justin Masterson out with an injury, Jimenez will have to carry an even bigger load the rest of the way.
Jimenez is now pitching the way the Indians envisioned they were getting when they traded for him in 2011. They dealt away two promising pitching prospects, Drew Pomeranz and Alex White, along with two others to acquire Jimenez. They felt he would become the anchor of the staff for the rest of 2011 and the two seasons after it.
But Jimenez struggled at the end of 2011, going 4-4 with a 5.10 ERA - that poor performance carried into the 2012 season. Faith had been lost in him heading into this season, primarily because of significant loss of velocity on his fastball and the high amount of baserunners he allowed.
Enter Mickey Callaway.
When the Indians hired Terry Francona to be their new manager, one of the first orders of business was to appoint Callaway as his pitching coach. He has since done a magnificent job with the entire starting staff - with Jimenez' resurgence, getting Masterson back on track, helping Corey Kluber and Zach McAllister take steps forward as major league pitchers.
Callaway got Jimenez to eliminate several pitches in his repertoire, and got him to be faster in his delivery. The biggest change was to significantly cut the use of his curveball (8.8% in 2012, 3.2% in 2013) and changeup (13.0% in 2012, 8.8% in 2013) and increase the use of his slider (15.8% in 2012, 24.4% in 2013) and splitter (4.9% in 2012, 10.2% in 2013).
That slight change of delivery and modification hasn’t helped Jimenez’s command, as he is still walking a good amount of hitters (4.8 BB/9 in 2012, 4.6 BB/9 in 2013) but it has helped get him more swing and miss (7.3 K/9 in 2012, 9.0 K/9 in 2013), limit hits (.271 AVG in 2012, .231 AVG in 2013) and induce weaker contact (38.4% groundballs in 2012, 43.2% groundballs in 2013).
These changes have made Jimenez an effective, reliable middle-of-the-rotation starter. The Indians are going to lean on him heavily the last few weeks of the season. If the Tribe has to play a one-game wildcard playoff game, you can bet that Jimenez would be given strong consideration to make that start. The team has that much confidence in him right now.
Conveniently, Jimenez’s turnaround coincides with him being in a free agent year. The Indians have a mutual $8 million option on him next season, one they will surely pick up. However, because it is a mutual option, it means Jimenez can decline it - he very likely will - and enter free agency to get a pretty hefty contract.
What Jimenez may ultimately get in free agency is tough to pinpoint at this time, but one thing to remember is teams significantly overpay for starting pitching in free agency – even average starting pitching.
Take for example the deals that Jeremy Guthrie (3 years, $25 million), Edwin Jackson (4 years, $52 million) and Anibal Sanchez (5 years, $80 million) signed last offseason. These are three very good comparisons for Jimenez and likely the ones that his agent will use when attempting to establish his market this offseason. Guthrie’s deal is probably the floor and Sanchez’s deal is probably the ceiling.
The Indians will be faced with a tough decision, and the biggest of all could be whether they decide to offer Jimenez the qualifying offer or not. If Jimenez declines his part in the mutual option, the Indians can still extend the qualifying offer, but by doing so they would guarantee him a 2014 salary for one season at about $14 million if he accepts it.
That’s a significant chunk of change to give to anyone, especially when the team will have limited resources this coming offseason, but a gamble they may take to retain him or at least ensure they get draft pick compensation if he signs elsewhere.  As we saw last offseason, no team wants to lose a first round pick to sign a player, and that is what a team would lose if they signed Jimenez.
Bottom line, the Indians may ultimately have to pass on Jimenez long term. If he accepts his option for next season then fine, but paying him $14 million next season when they need to make improvements to the roster may not be wise. Also, the Indians will need all available resources for the following offseason because Masterson is up for free agency after next season and he is far more important to resign.
In the meantime, keep rooting for Jimenez to dominate down the stretch. His price tag this offseason may continue to go up with each great start, but at the same time he is improving the Indians chances of making the playoffs.