Which All-Stars will falter in second half?

(Note: all stats are prior to Wednesday’s games.)

In the sports realm, early July is a barren desert of idleness and indifference. Baseball’s trade deadline and golf’s British Open linger in the distance. The occasional hockey signing will come and pass with little pageantry. The opening of NFL training camps and NBA’s free-agency period normally facilitates fanfare; alas, labor disputes have put those annual activities on hiatus. The All England Club hosts the prestigious Wimbledon, but for the life of me, I don’t know anyone under the age of 30 who regularly watches tennis.

Luckily, the release of rosters for the MLB All-Star Game perpetually serves as conversation fodder on multiple fronts. Among the inevitable itinerary of issues up for discussion: what undeserving players were chosen (cough cough Derek Jeter) and which stars were overlooked (Andrew McCutchen); the integrity, or sometimes lack thereof, of managers selecting their own players; the principle of each team being represented in the game; and, of course, the absurd premise that the game’s outcome dictates home-field advantage in the World Series.

Yet one prattle point that is often omitted is forecasting the second-half performances of the All-Star selections. Thanks to the plethora of variables affecting a ballplayer’s production, the Midsummer Classic seemingly features more players in the midst of fluke seasons than other All-Star events. But while the occasional argument will arise over an All-Star’s merits, few offer the analysis to illustrate why certain players flourished, and as a corollary, why they will fizzle.

That is, until now. Utilizing a mixture of standard statistics and sabermetrics, here is a projection of which All-Stars are likely to falter in the second half.

Josh Beckett
If it wasn’t for Justin Verlander, Beckett would be the favorite for the Cy Young in the American League. Ranking second in the AL in WHIP (0.91) and ERA (2.12), Beckett is 7-3 with 91 punch-outs in 16 starts (106 innings) this season. But Beckett’s .216 BABIP is baseball’s bottom figure, and his HR/9 ratio of 0.51 is the lowest it’s been since 2003. With those numbers likely to increase (especially regarding BABIP, where Beckett has a career mark of .294), a correlating upsurge in Beckett’s ERA and WHIP should be expected. Additionally, Beckett has historically experienced a slight decrease in his second half output, with a rise in batting average (.235 to .250), ERA (3.78 to 3.91) and WHIP (1.19 to 1.26).

Matt Joyce
With a batting average of .414 in May serving as catalyst, Joyce entered June with a league-leading .370 average to go along with a robust .430 OBP. Few anticipated Joyce continuing this batting barrage, and Joyce’s mark of .160 since June 1 certainly seems to validate this claim. Yet with these two performances sitting on opposite sides of the spectrum, how will the rest of the season unfold for the Tampa Bay outfielder? Joyce’s line drive percentage of 23.3, about five percent above the league average, is a major influence in Joyce’s .293 batting figure on the season. (Note: more line drives associate with more hits.) In 180 big league ballgames prior to 2011, Joyce’s line drive percentage was just under the league mean. If Joyce returns to this inclination, his batting average will continue to digress. Additionally, Joyce’s BABIP (.340) remains relatively high. Although not the best forecasting tool for batters, this high number is another indication to Joyce’s continued downward spiral.

Ryan Vogelsong
Vogelsong has been one of the more heartwarming stories in baseball, as the journeyman had been out of the bigs since 2006 with pit stops in Japan and the minors until receiving a call-up on April 17. Vogelsong’s 2.13 ERA and 1.15 WHIP should not be disregarded. Nevertheless, the discrepancy between the San Fran starter’s home and away splits are disconcerting. Vogelsong has been unhittable in the friendly confines of AT&T Park, brandishing a 1.01 ERA and 0.90 WHIP while holding opponents to a .195 average in seven appearances (six starts). On the road? Not so assertive, posting a pedestrian 3.40 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in 39.2 innings this season. Vogelsong also possesses a .256 BABIP, astonishing when accounting for the Giants’ porous defense.

Lance Berkman
Berkman has bounced back from a dreadful 2010 campaign, leading the Senior Circuit with 23 homers, .612 SLG and 1.018 OPS. While the power has been present, Berkman has seen a steady decline in his batting average. Hitting .393 after April 30, Berkman submitted months of .262 and .221 in May and June. Berkman’s batted ball metrics point to a further fall, as his 21.2 line drive percentage is the highest it’s been since 2005, and his infield fly ball percentage and home run to fly ball ratio are currently career-bests. Whereas 35-year-olds having transcendent seasons was a stigma of the steroid era, one would like to think those days are over. Translation: don’t count on Berkman to continue his preeminence of power.

Jose Reyes
Reyes is pacing the majors with a .354 batting average and 15 triples to go along with 65 runs and 30 swipes. Reyes’ upcoming free-agency in undoubtedly a positive component in his performance, but continued dominance is anything but a sure thing from the Mets shortstop. Reyes’ previous career-high in average for a full season sits at .300 from 2006. A cut down in strikeouts (just 7.4 strikeout percentage) could explain this advance in average. However, a ridiculous .375 BABIP has indisputably acted as a stimulus for Reyes, a number that, despite his speed, will definitely drop. And that’s before computing the severity of Reyes’ hamstring injury into the equation.

Placido Polanco
Polanco had a splendid spring, hitting .398 with 19 RBI and 18 runs in April. But the Philly third baseman fell back to Earth with a .248/.289/.294 May, and is just 20-for-109 at the plate since June 1. Amazingly, Polanco owns a 23.7 line drive percentage, his highest ratio since 2007. Polanco has historically hit in the second half, batting .307 in the late summer months in his career, but it appears Father Time is starting to take its toll on Polanco.

Brandon League
The Seattle closer’s 3.44 ERA is bloated thanks to a disastrous stretch in early May, recently ending a streak of 20 straight appearances without conceding a run. League maintains a 1.09 WHIP and his BABIP of .283 doesn’t convey an obscene amount of luck. Yet, like Vogelsong, League has benefited from a pitcher’s paradise, sporting a 0.77 WHIP and 1.31 ERA in Safeco Field compared to a 1.50 WHIP and 6.19 ERA on the road. League has additionally benefitted from an enormous jump in infield fly ball percentage, with a 10.0 ratio this season versus a 4.1 mark in 2010. Expect the former figure to gravitate toward the latter in the second half.

Aaron Crow
Granted, Crow didn’t deserve the selection in the first place, and his forgettable outing against the White Sox on Independence Day (1.2 innings, three hits, two walks, three runs) didn’t alleviate the unearned sentiment. Including the smackdown delivered by Chicago, Crow has now relinquished seven earned runs in his last 15.2 innings (4.02 ERA) after posting a 0.70 ERA in his first 25.2 innings of work. Not to keep pouring the Haterade, but Crow’s miniscule line drive and BABIP figures project for a rough second half.