WhatIfSports college football Week 8 predictions: Bama keeps rolling against Texas A&M
Each Monday, WhatIfSports.com's college football simulation engine generates predictions for every Division I FBS game for the coming week. Our highly sophisticated algorithms simulate every play of every game to produce each team's likelihood to win. Each matchup is simulated 101 times.
Week 7 in Review
The computer predictions continue to produce around 80 percent winners. Last week, we correctly picked the Game of the Week (Ohio State over Wisconsin) and the Upset of the Week (Stanford over Notre Dame). The computer is now a remarkable 6-1 for the GotW.
Nailed It: Ohio State 30 - Wisconsin 23
We predicted the Buckeyes to remain undefeated in the Game of the Week. It took overtime, but Ohio State was victorious. OSU won 65.3 percent of the time, by an average score of 27.9-23.0. Also, with the spread being 10.5, our projections had the Badgers covering, which they did.
Wide Right: Syracuse 31 - Virginia Tech 17
The Hokies are a tough team to predict. In last week's post, this space was used for Virginia Tech 43 – North Carolina 3 (we had the Tar Heels winning 66 percent of the time). This time, we predicted VT to win 61.4 percent of the time, by an average score of 29.3-25.6 and they lost.
Track our 2016 performance or view our accuracy last season, when we correctly picked the winner in 80.0 percent of all games involving FBS teams.
Week 8 Top 25 vs. Top 25 Matchups
No. 6 Texas A&M at No. 1 Alabama
When the top team in college football plays, the game is always on the public's radar. When the opponent is in the Top 25 as well, a little more interest is put toward the game. When both teams are undefeated, and it's later in the season, you get all of the attention. The Tide rolled on Tennessee last week, 49-10, yet they are still tied with the Aggies at 4-0 in the SEC West standings. Texas A&M's last game was against the Vols, too. Both team produced at least 45 points against the common opponent, but Bama held Tennessee to 10 points and the Volunteers scored 38 points against the Aggies. Both teams also defeated Arkansas, this time by similar margins. Bama's biggest strength is its defense. Teams are averaging 274 total yards per game when facing Alabama (fifth in the nation) and scoring only 15 points per game. A&M's quarterback, Trevor Knight, has thrown for at least 200 yards and helped the offense produce at least 24 points in each game this season. The outcome of our simulation was surprisingly close. Alabama wins 55.9 percent of the time, by an average score of 27.5-26.3.
No. 17 Arkansas at No. 21 Auburn
The Razorbacks' only two losses this season have come to undefeated teams (Texas A&M and Alabama). Auburn is in the same boat. A&M and Clemson gave the Tigers their only losses of 2016. When a team gets its third loss, the wheels tend to fall off and programs start planning for next season. If Arkansas wants to win, it needs to get the ball into the hands of Rawleigh Williams. In both losses, RW3 rushed for under 80 yards. Auburn has two RBs to work with: Kerryon Johnson and Kamryn Pettway. KJ missed last week's game with a leg injury, but has returned to practice for this week's contest. KP filled in nicely in the win over Mississippi State on Saturday: 39 carries, 169 yards and three TDs. With that duo, Auburn wins the simulations 54.4 percent of the time, by an average score of 26.7-25.2.
No. 23 Ole Miss at No. 25 LSU
That dreaded third loss I was eluding to earlier could impact the Rebels this week. They lost a 34-30 battle with Arkansas last week and the wind could be completely taken out of their sails as they travel to LSU. After losing to Auburn, and firing Les Miles, the Tigers have won back-to-back games and have carved up their opponents with their ground attack. They've also been doing it without Leonard Fournette. Sophomore Derrius Guice has tallied 325 yards and five TDs in the past two games. Fournette is already expected to play this week, but Guice will be ready to take advantage of his opportunities, too. LSU wins 52.5 percent of the simulations, by an average score of 28.1-27.4.
Week 8 Upset Pick
Akron (+2) over Ball State
There's always that one game when scrolling through the Vegas lines and you think, "That doesn't look right." That's the case for this matchup. The Zips have lost three times this season. First, they were whopped by the Badgers (54-10). Then, FBS-buster, Appalachian State narrowly beat Akron (45-38). Finally, last week, undefeated (and ranked) Western Michigan destroyed the Zips, 41-0. Three, albeit bad, losses to good programs. Yet, Akron is a two-point underdog to Ball State. The computers expect the Zips to bounce-back as Akron wins 57.1 percent of the simulations, by an average score of 30.9-29.1.
College Football Week 8 Predictions
| |||
---|---|---|---|
Matchup | Win % | Avg. Score | |
North Carolina State Wolfpack | 34.7 | 23.3 | Box Score |
@ Louisville Cardinals | 65.3 | 27.6 | |
Miami (FL) Hurricanes | 41.1 | 27.3 | Box Score |
@ Virginia Tech Hokies | 58.9 | 28.3 | |
Syracuse Orange | 48.0 | 22.8 | Box Score |
@ Boston College Eagles | 52.0 | 23.2 | |
North Carolina Tar Heels | 55.4 | 29.7 | Box Score |
@ Virginia Cavaliers | 44.6 | 28.2 | |
Illinois Fighting Illini | 15.8 | 21.3 | Box Score |
@ Michigan Wolverines | 84.2 | 32.6 | |
Purdue Boilermakers | 29.2 | 24.8 | Box Score |
@ Nebraska Cornhuskers | 70.8 | 31.2 | |
Indiana Hoosiers | 38.7 | 24.9 | Box Score |
@ Northwestern Wildcats | 61.3 | 28.2 | |
Rutgers Scarlet Knights | 43.4 | 25.1 | Box Score |
@ Minnesota Golden Gophers | 56.6 | 27.9 | |
Michigan State Spartans | 60.1 | 27.1 | Box Score |
@ Maryland Terrapins | 39.9 | 24.9 | |
Wisconsin Badgers | 60.9 | 26.7 | Box Score |
@ Iowa Hawkeyes | 39.1 | 22.4 | |
Ohio State Buckeyes | 74.3 | 30.6 | Box Score |
@ Penn State Nittany Lions | 25.7 | 22.2 | |
Buffalo Bulls | 38.1 | 26.1 | Box Score |
@ Northern Illinois Huskies | 61.9 | 30.3 | |
Eastern Michigan Eagles | 40.6 | 29.5 | Box Score |
@ Western Michigan Broncos | 59.4 | 34.1 | |
Central Michigan Chippewas | 44.6 | 29.6 | Box Score |
@ Toledo Rockets | 55.4 | 31.6 | |
Miami (OH) RedHawks | 45.1 | 28.7 | Box Score |
@ Bowling Green Falcons | 54.9 | 30.2 | |
Akron Zips | 57.1 | 30.9 | Box Score |
@ Ball State Cardinals | 42.9 | 29.1 | |
Ohio Bobcats | 59.4 | 28.7 | Box Score |
@ Kent State Golden Flashes | 40.6 | 26.5 | |
Oregon State Beavers | 31.2 | 23.0 | Box Score |
@ Washington Huskies | 68.8 | 30.3 | |
Oregon Ducks | 48.2 | 32.9 | Box Score |
@ California Golden Bears | 51.8 | 33.2 | |
Colorado Buffaloes | 48.3 | 28.2 | Box Score |
@ Stanford Cardinal | 51.7 | 28.7 | |
Utah Utes | 51.2 | 27.4 | Box Score |
@ UCLA Bruins | 48.8 | 27.1 | |
Washington State Cougars | 58.4 | 32.5 | Box Score |
@ Arizona State Sun Devils | 41.6 | 30.5 | |
Tennessee State Tigers | 5.0 | 8.6 | Box Score |
@ Vanderbilt Commodores | 95.0 | 44.0 | |
Massachusetts Minutemen | 32.7 | 25.4 | Box Score |
@ South Carolina Gamecocks | 67.3 | 32.1 | |
Texas A&M Aggies | 44.1 | 26.3 | Box Score |
@ Alabama Crimson Tide | 55.9 | 27.5 | |
Arkansas Razorbacks | 45.6 | 25.2 | Box Score |
@ Auburn Tigers | 54.4 | 26.7 | |
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | 46.0 | 26.3 | Box Score |
@ Missouri Tigers | 54.0 | 27.6 | |
Ole Miss Rebels | 47.5 | 27.4 | Box Score |
@ LSU Tigers | 52.5 | 28.1 | |
Mississippi State Bulldogs | 55.4 | 30.2 | Box Score |
@ Kentucky Wildcats | 44.6 | 26.4 | |
North Texas Mean Green | 48.7 | 26.9 | Box Score |
@ Army West Point Black Knights | 51.3 | 27.6 | |
TCU Horned Frogs | 47.4 | 27.0 | Box Score |
@ West Virginia Mountaineers | 52.6 | 27.7 | |
Texas Longhorns | 53.4 | 25.9 | Box Score |
@ Kansas State Wildcats | 46.6 | 24.7 | |
Oklahoma Sooners | 65.3 | 32.3 | Box Score |
@ Texas Tech Red Raiders | 34.7 | 29.0 | |
Oklahoma State Cowboys | 74.3 | 34.7 | Box Score |
@ Kansas Jayhawks | 25.7 | 23.9 | |
Prairie View A&M Panthers | 5.0 | 9.8 | Box Score |
@ Rice Owls | 95.0 | 43.7 | |
Old Dominion Monarchs | 37.6 | 31.0 | Box Score |
@ Western Kentucky Hilltoppers | 62.4 | 35.7 | |
UTEP Miners | 40.6 | 27.6 | Box Score |
@ UTSA Roadrunners | 59.4 | 30.8 | |
Charlotte 49ers | 41.7 | 25.5 | Box Score |
@ Marshall Thundering Herd | 58.3 | 28.5 | |
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs | 57.4 | 32.1 | Box Score |
@ FIU Golden Panthers | 42.6 | 29.9 | |
San Jose State Spartans | 23.8 | 24.7 | Box Score |
@ San Diego State Aztecs | 76.2 | 31.2 | |
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 37.6 | 26.4 | Box Score |
@ Air Force Falcons | 62.4 | 29.3 | |
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks | 38.6 | 26.6 | Box Score |
@ New Mexico Lobos | 61.4 | 29.4 | |
Fresno State Bulldogs | 43.6 | 28.2 | Box Score |
@ Utah State Aggies | 56.4 | 30.1 | |
BYU Cougars | 46.8 | 28.1 | Box Score |
@ Boise State Broncos | 53.2 | 28.8 | |
Colorado State Rams | 53.4 | 29.5 | Box Score |
@ UNLV Rebels | 46.6 | 28.3 | |
Wyoming Cowboys | 55.1 | 29.9 | Box Score |
@ Nevada Wolf Pack | 44.9 | 28.4 | |
UT Martin Skyhawks | 5.0 | 8.9 | Box Score |
@ Georgia State Panthers | 95.0 | 42.5 | |
Idaho Vandals | 34.2 | 26.0 | Box Score |
@ Appalachian State Mountaineers | 65.8 | 32.3 | |
Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns | 51.3 | 33.4 | Box Score |
@ Texas State Bobcats | 48.7 | 32.2 | |
Troy Trojans | 58.4 | 30.4 | Box Score |
@ South Alabama Jaguars | 41.6 | 27.5 | |
Georgia Southern Eagles | 61.4 | 34.4 | Box Score |
@ New Mexico State Aggies | 38.6 | 29.7 | |
Tulane Green Wave | 36.6 | 26.1 | Box Score |
@ Tulsa Golden Hurricane | 63.4 | 30.4 | |
East Carolina Pirates | 42.9 | 28.3 | Box Score |
@ Cincinnati Bearcats | 57.1 | 30.1 | |
UCF Knights | 47.9 | 26.8 | Box Score |
@ Connecticut Huskies | 52.1 | 27.1 | |
Memphis Tigers | 51.9 | 28.1 | Box Score |
@ Navy Midshipmen | 48.1 | 27.9 | |
South Florida Bulls | 54.5 | 28.6 | Box Score |
@ Temple Owls | 45.5 | 26.2 | |
Houston Cougars | 68.3 | 31.4 | Box Score |
@ SMU Mustangs | 31.7 | 24.5 |
In addition, view our Week 8 power rankings or visit our college football archive for predictions from past weeks. For more statistics, view our weekly college football predictions.