WhatIfSports college football Week 4 predictions: UCLA stays unbeaten at Arizona
Each Monday, WhatIfSports.com's college football simulation engine generates predictions for every Division I FBS game for the coming week. Our highly sophisticated algorithms simulate every play of every game to produce each team's likelihood to win. Each matchup is simulated 101 times.
Week 3 in Review
Our computers continue to print out winners. Last week, we won 85.5 percent of the games (59-10). When it came to teams in the Top 25, the computer was 18-6 (75 percent winners). The simulator even predicted my Toledo Rockets would beat Iowa State.
Track our 2015 performance or view our accuracy last season, when we correctly picked the winner in 77.6 percent of all games involving FBS teams.
Week 3 Highlight: Air Force at Michigan State
One of the top teams in the country, the Spartans, was a strong favorite (-24.5) against the Falcons. However, our simulation machine saw this game being closer than the experts predicted. The final score was 35-21. The computer said 32.2-21.6, Michigan State.
Week 3 Lowlight: Ole Miss at Alabama
On the down side, Alabama was predicted to beat the Rebels by an average score of 28.2-23.5. However, Ole Miss shocked the system and the college football world (other than those in Oxford, MS) by defeating the Crimson Tide, 43-37. Chad Kelly threw for 341 yards and 3 TDs and is now 3-0.
Week 4 Top 25 vs. Top 25 Matchups
No. 9 UCLA at No. 16 Arizona
Two undefeated Pac-12 South teams square off in Tuscon. Arizona has scored at least 42 points in each of its three games this season, but has yet to face a tough opponent. The Bruins are also 3-0 and narrowly avoided defeat by BYU last week (24-23). After 101 simulations, our computers say UCLA will be victorious 53.8 percent of the time by an average score of 30.4-29.8.
No. 18 Utah at No. 13 Oregon
The third undefeated team in the Pac-12 South, Utah, also faces a ranked opponent in Week 4, the Ducks. Oregon credits Michigan State with its only loss of the season. However, like the Wildcats, Oregon has beaten subpar squads. The Utes conquered Michigan and Fresno State amongst their three wins. With the computers playing this matchup 101 times, the Ducks won a surprising 64.4 percent of the time by an average score of 30.9-27.0.
Week 4 Upset Pick
Tennessee (+2) at Florida
The Gators are 3-0 and host the 2-1 Volunteers in Week 4. Vegas has Florida as a two-point favorite at home. The computers see it differently. Tennessee wins 66.3 percent of the simulations by a final score of 26.8-25.0. While Florida is without a loss, it barely defeated East Carolina (31-24) and Kentucky (14-9). The Volunteers’ only loss is to Oklahoma. In their other contests, Tennessee produced at least 55 points.
College Football Week 4 Predictions
| |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Matchup | Win % | Avg. Score | |
| Samford Bulldogs | 5.0 | 6.3 | Box Score |
| @ Louisville Cardinals | 95.0 | 45.3 | |
| Delaware Fightin' Blue Hens | 5.0 | 6.7 | Box Score |
| @ North Carolina Tar Heels | 95.0 | 50.8 | |
| Northern Illinois Huskies | 47.5 | 25.6 | Box Score |
| @ Boston College Eagles | 52.5 | 26.4 | |
| Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets | 58.4 | 29.2 | Box Score |
| @ Duke Blue Devils | 41.6 | 26.3 | |
| Boise State Broncos | 62.4 | 25.8 | Box Score |
| @ Virginia Cavaliers | 37.6 | 24.9 | |
| Indiana Hoosiers | 66.8 | 29.5 | Box Score |
| @ Wake Forest Demon Deacons | 33.2 | 24.8 | |
| LSU Tigers | 79.2 | 31.1 | Box Score |
| @ Syracuse Orange | 20.8 | 21.0 | |
| Central Michigan Chippewas | 17.8 | 22.3 | Box Score |
| @ Michigan State Spartans | 82.2 | 33.8 | |
| Western Michigan Broncos | 19.8 | 25.2 | Box Score |
| @ Ohio State Buckeyes | 80.2 | 37.5 | |
| North Texas Mean Green | 24.8 | 20.8 | Box Score |
| @ Iowa Hawkeyes | 75.2 | 29.8 | |
| Ohio Bobcats | 28.7 | 23.2 | Box Score |
| @ Minnesota Golden Gophers | 71.3 | 29.7 | |
| Ball State Cardinals | 28.7 | 24.9 | Box Score |
| @ Northwestern Wildcats | 71.3 | 31.0 | |
| San Diego State Aztecs | 31.2 | 21.8 | Box Score |
| @ Penn State Nittany Lions | 68.8 | 27.9 | |
| Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 32.7 | 25.1 | Box Score |
| @ Wisconsin Badgers | 67.3 | 30.2 | |
| Southern Miss Golden Eagles | 35.6 | 28.0 | Box Score |
| @ Nebraska Cornhuskers | 64.4 | 32.9 | |
| Kansas Jayhawks | 43.6 | 24.8 | Box Score |
| @ Rutgers Scarlet Knights | 56.4 | 27.0 | |
| Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | 45.5 | 28.9 | Box Score |
| @ Illinois Fighting Illini | 54.5 | 30.8 | |
| BYU Cougars | 49.4 | 25.7 | Box Score |
| @ Michigan Wolverines | 50.6 | 26.4 | |
| Bowling Green Falcons | 57.4 | 31.0 | Box Score |
| @ Purdue Boilermakers | 42.6 | 30.5 | |
| Army West Point Black Knights | 36.6 | 24.9 | Box Score |
| @ Eastern Michigan Eagles | 63.4 | 29.1 | |
| Nevada Wolf Pack | 45.0 | 30.3 | Box Score |
| @ Buffalo Bulls | 55.0 | 31.3 | |
| Arkansas State Red Wolves | 45.5 | 29.6 | Box Score |
| @ Toledo Rockets | 54.5 | 31.7 | |
| Marshall Thundering Herd | 62.4 | 32.7 | Box Score |
| @ Kent State Golden Flashes | 37.6 | 28.5 | |
| Nicholls Colonels | 5.0 | 7.2 | Box Score |
| @ Colorado Buffaloes | 95.0 | 46.2 | |
| Utah Utes | 35.6 | 27.0 | Box Score |
| @ Oregon Ducks | 64.4 | 30.9 | |
| USC Trojans | 53.5 | 29.8 | Box Score |
| @ Arizona State Sun Devils | 46.5 | 28.4 | |
| California Golden Bears | 53.7 | 31.0 | Box Score |
| @ Washington Huskies | 46.3 | 29.4 | |
| UCLA Bruins | 53.8 | 30.4 | Box Score |
| @ Arizona Wildcats | 46.2 | 29.8 | |
| Stanford Cardinal | 56.9 | 30.5 | Box Score |
| @ Oregon State Beavers | 43.1 | 28.0 | |
| Southern University Jaguars | 5.0 | 7.7 | Box Score |
| @ Georgia Bulldogs | 95.0 | 55.5 | |
| Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks | 11.9 | 19.3 | Box Score |
| @ Alabama Crimson Tide | 88.1 | 33.0 | |
| Vanderbilt Commodores | 22.8 | 21.9 | Box Score |
| @ Ole Miss Rebels | 77.2 | 30.8 | |
| UCF Knights | 33.7 | 22.4 | Box Score |
| @ South Carolina Gamecocks | 66.3 | 27.5 | |
| Mississippi State Bulldogs | 48.5 | 28.1 | Box Score |
| @ Auburn Tigers | 51.5 | 28.4 | |
| Missouri Tigers | 61.9 | 28.3 | Box Score |
| @ Kentucky Wildcats | 38.1 | 25.0 | |
| Texas A&M Aggies | 63.4 | 31.9 | Box Score |
| @ Arkansas Razorbacks | 36.6 | 27.9 | |
| Tennessee Volunteers | 66.3 | 26.8 | Box Score |
| @ Florida Gators | 33.7 | 22.8 | |
| Massachusetts Minutemen | 18.8 | 25.0 | Box Score |
| @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 81.2 | 35.8 | |
| Rice Owls | 23.8 | 25.4 | Box Score |
| @ Baylor Bears | 76.2 | 35.1 | |
| Maryland Terrapins | 42.6 | 24.7 | Box Score |
| @ West Virginia Mountaineers | 57.4 | 28.7 | |
| Oklahoma State Cowboys | 60.4 | 29.8 | Box Score |
| @ Texas Longhorns | 39.6 | 26.0 | |
| TCU Horned Frogs | 65.3 | 35.7 | Box Score |
| @ Texas Tech Red Raiders | 34.7 | 32.0 | |
| Incarnate Word Cardinals | 5.0 | 7.9 | Box Score |
| @ UTEP Miners | 95.0 | 44.5 | |
| Miami (OH) RedHawks | 33.7 | 30.5 | Box Score |
| @ Western Kentucky Hilltoppers | 66.3 | 35.1 | |
| FIU Golden Panthers | 42.6 | 26.3 | Box Score |
| @ Louisiana Tech Bulldogs | 57.4 | 29.0 | |
| Florida Atlantic Owls | 61.4 | 33.0 | Box Score |
| @ Charlotte 49ers | 38.6 | 28.3 | |
| Appalachian State Mountaineers | 65.3 | 33.1 | Box Score |
| @ Old Dominion Monarchs | 34.7 | 29.6 | |
| Colorado State Rams | 74.3 | 30.8 | Box Score |
| @ UTSA Roadrunners | 25.7 | 23.6 | |
| Idaho State Bengals | 5.0 | 8.3 | Box Score |
| @ UNLV Rebels | 95.0 | 41.3 | |
| New Mexico Lobos | 51.6 | 32.4 | Box Score |
| @ Wyoming Cowboys | 48.4 | 31.7 | |
| Fresno State Bulldogs | 54.5 | 31.3 | Box Score |
| @ San Jose State Spartans | 45.5 | 30.7 | |
| Akron Zips | 46.5 | 28.5 | Box Score |
| @ Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns | 53.5 | 30.5 | |
| North Carolina State Wolfpack | 58.9 | 30.9 | Box Score |
| @ South Alabama Jaguars | 41.1 | 27.3 | |
| Georgia Southern Eagles | 70.3 | 32.4 | Box Score |
| @ Idaho Vandals | 29.7 | 24.3 | |
| James Madison Dukes | 5.0 | 7.7 | Box Score |
| @ SMU Mustangs | 95.0 | 44.1 | |
| Texas State Bobcats | 33.7 | 27.9 | Box Score |
| @ Houston Cougars | 66.3 | 33.5 | |
| Cincinnati Bearcats | 45.5 | 31.9 | Box Score |
| @ Memphis Tigers | 54.5 | 32.3 | |
| Virginia Tech Hokies | 62.4 | 29.5 | Box Score |
| @ East Carolina Pirates | 37.6 | 24.7 | |
| Navy Midshipmen | 73.3 | 31.4 | Box Score |
| @ Connecticut Huskies | 26.7 | 24.7 |
In addition, view our Week 4 power rankings or visit our college football archive for predictions from past weeks. For more statistics, view our weekly college football predictions.