WhatIfSports college football Week 2 predictions: Tennessee improves to 2-0

By foxsports
Published

Each Monday, WhatIfSports.com's college football simulation engine generates predictions for every Division I FBS game for the coming week. Our highly sophisticated algorithms simulate every play of every game to produce each team's likelihood to win. Each matchup is simulated 101 times.

Week 1 in Review

After a long offseason, our college football simulation engine shook off the cobwebs and accurately predicted 72 of 87 Week 1 games. The successes included a couple of upset picks, with Toledo (+3) taking down Arkansas State 31-10 and BYU (+1) knocking off Arizona 18-16. 

Nailed It: Minnesota 30 - Oregon State 23

Oddsmakers envisioned Minnesota to handle Oregon State, installing the Gophers as 13-point favorites. We predicted a closer game, however, picking Minnesota to win 56.4 percent of the time and outscoring the Beavers by an average margin of of 26.8-25.6. Two fourth-quarter touchdowns by Gophers erased a 23-17 deficit as the team won 30-23.

Wide Right: South Alabama 21 -€“ Mississippi State 20

When an SEC school plays a member of the Sun Belt, it's usually a safe assumption that the SEC team will triumph. We placed Mississippi State's odds to beat South Alabama at 74.3 percent. At the half, the Bulldogs led 17-0. Heading into the fourth quarter, the score was 20-7. But two fourth-quarter touchdowns by South Alabama, the second with 57 seconds remaining, delivered the Jaguars a huge 21-20 upset. 

Track our 2016 performance or view our accuracy last season, when we correctly picked the winner in 80.0 percent of all games involving FBS teams.

Week 2 Games to Watch

Arkansas at No. 13 TCU

Hunting for Top 25 matchups was a struggle this week, so we went with some solid games that may not have high-ranking aspirations. This battle between the Big 12 and SEC made the cut. Both of these teams were victorious last week, but allowed way too many points against weaker opponents. The Horned Frogs were locked up with South Dakota State until the third quarter before earning the 59-41 win. Arkansas needed a fourth-quarter comeback in order to defeat Louisiana Tech by a score of 21-20. Our simulation engines don't believe the Razorbacks can make another come-from-behind win. TCU wins 52.5 percent of the time by an average score of 26.9-25.6.

BYU at Utah

The Holy War has gone the way of Utah in the past five matchups, including twice last year (2015 Las Vegas Bowl). The Utes own the series overall record, too (58-34-4). Transfer quarterback Troy Williams won his first start for the Utes last week (24-0 over Southern Utah). Kalani Sitake won in his debut, as well. The new BYU head coach made the right move starting Taysom Hill at QB and earned the close 18-16 win over Arizona. One team will receive its first loss of the season and our computers say it will be the Cougars. Utah wins 56.4 percent of the simulations by an average score of 27.2-24.3.

Virginia Tech vs. No. 9 Tennessee

Gentlemen, start your engines! The Hokies and Volunteers square off at Bristol Motor Speedway in what is expected to be the largest crowd on-hand for a college football game (estimated attendance around 150,000). Tennessee might've had their sights on this game one week too soon. The Volunteers needed overtime to beat Appalachian State 20-13 at home. Virginia Tech won its opener thanks to new starting QB Jerod Evans (221 passing yards and four TDs). However, our computer simulations suggest the SEC will win this contest 59.4 percent of the time by an average score of 26.8-25.4, in favor of the Vols.

Week 3 Upset Pick

Penn State (+6) at Pittsburgh

Instate rivals Penn State and Pitt meet in Heinz Field (Pitt's home) on Saturday afternoon. Both won their first game of 2016 by at least 20 points. Both teams also rely heavily on their ground attack. The Nittany Lions have sophomore Saquon Barkley. He rushed for over 100 yards and a TD in Week 1. The Panthers have James Conner. He tallied 69 total yards and two TDs in his emotional return. Our computers give the edge to the Big 10 in this one 55.4 percent of the time by an average score of 26.2-24.8.

In addition, view our Week 2 power rankings or visit our college football archive for predictions from past weeks. For more statistics, view our weekly college football predictions.