WhatIfSports college football Week 13 predictions: Gators defend home turf
Each Monday, WhatIfSports.com's college football simulation engine generates predictions for every Division I FBS game for the coming week. Our highly sophisticated algorithms simulate every play of every game to produce each team's likelihood to win. Each matchup is simulated 101 times.
Week 12 in Review
It was a rough week for the highlighted games. We ended our winning streak on both the Game of the Week (Ohio State losing to Michigan State) and the Upset of the Week (Duke lost to Virginia). As for the AP Top 25 matchups, we only correctly predicted 68 percent of the games (17-8). Time to rebound in Week 13.
Week 12 Highlight: Oklahoma 30, TCU 29
We predicted that the Sooners would win by one point (29-28), even though they were 19-point favorites.
Week 12 Lowlight: Virginia 42, Duke 34
We had Duke upsetting Virginia, but it was the Cavs who were victorious. Virginia's 21-point first quarter was enough to go into cruise control and defeat Duke.
Track our 2015 performance or view our accuracy last season, when we correctly picked the winner in 77.6 percent of all games involving FBS teams.
Week 13 Top 25 vs. Top 25 Matchups
No. 8 Ohio State vs. No. 12 Michigan
Well, the streak ended on Saturday night. The Buckeyes won 23 straight games and then the Spartans went into Columbus and dethroned the champs. Now, Ohio State must pick up the pieces and head into its rivalry game against the hungry Wolverines. Michigan had its game all but won when it played Connor Cook and Michigan State. Then, a botched punt on the final play swung the game in the other direction. Jim Harbaugh's boys recovered by winning four straight. Currently, Ohio State has won three consecutive contests in arguably the best rivalry in college football (Buckeyes have won 10 of the past 11). Will Urban Meyer's club right the ship or will the dream season have a nightmarish ending? Our SIM machine suggests Ohio State, the underdog, will win 56.4 percent of contests by an average score of 25.2-23.2.
No. 16 Navy vs. No. 21 Houston
The Cougars were another unbeaten team in the driver's seat of their own conference division who encountered their first stumble in Week 12. Greg Ward Jr. wasn't able to start last week against UConn, but tried to make an impact in the final quarter with his Cougs trailing by three. But he threw an interception in the final minute of the game. Houston is now 6-1 in the AAC and will battle a 7-0 Navy team that has won five straight and has lost only to Notre Dame. Keenan Reynolds leads the Midshipman with 652 passing yards and 1,009 rushing yards this season. The home Cougars are predicted to win by an average score of 30.6-28.2, coming out on top in 60.4 percent of sims.
No. 7 Baylor vs. No. 15 TCU
At the end of October, both of these teams were undefeated and had visions of competing for the national championship. Then, both teams suffered injuries to their respective quarterbacks and suffered defeats. Last week, the Horned Frogs lost a heartbreaker to the Sooners. Coach Gary Patterson decided to go for two in a scenario where they were on the road and without Trevone Boykin and Josh Doctson. It didn't end well. Foster Sawyer got the start in Boykin's absence and didn't produce. Sawyer was 8-for-18 for 107 passing yards and three interceptions. Bram Kohlhausen got his chance and made the most of his opportunity. He threw for 122 yards and two TDs while nearly overcoming a 17-point deficit. Baylor had Jarrett Stidham making his third start of the season. However, he suffered an injury just before halftime. Enter Chris Johnson. He compiled 180 total yards of offense and accounted for three touchdowns in the win against Oklahoma State. In a razor-thin margin, the Bears are projected to win by an average score of 30.4-30.2.
No. 19 Ole Miss vs. No. 23 Mississippi State
It's the Egg Bowl where these teams have exchanged wins and losses over the past four meetings. Ole Miss still owns the overall record (60-42-5). Both teams won last week after losing in prior meetings. Also, both teams scored into the 50s when playing against Arkansas. Ole Miss lost its shootout by one, while MSU won by one. Dak Prescott threw five TDs last week after producing zero TDs against Alabama. Chad Kelly has accounted for 10 total TDs in the past two games. Ole Miss is expected to win by an average of one (28.8-27.8) in 54.5 percent of the sims.
No. 14 Florida State vs. No. 10 Florida
While one team in the state of Florida devoured its "cupcake" opponent last week, the Gators needed overtime to win their matchup. Florida won 20-14 aganst lowly Florida Atlantic, earning its fourth straight win. Possibly, Florida had this week's game already in mind before the Week 12 game began. The Seminoles have won back-to-back games after losing to Clemson. However, they have lost their last two road games. This game could be a low-scoring affair. Florida State is allowing an average of 17 points per game. The Gators have the third-best defense when it comes to points allowed (14.5 ppg). Florida is favored according to the computers by an average of 27.0-26.2, winning 53.5 percent of simulations.
No. 4 Notre Dame vs. No. 13 Stanford
The Fighting Irish have one more chance to prove that they belong in one of the final four spots for the title, but they must beat the Cardinal. After losing to Northwestern in the season opener, Stanford stumbled to Oregon in Week 11. But, they are still a team in a Power 5 conference with an impressive record. Notre Dame was up by 16 against Boston College, but only won 19-16. The two-point loss to Clemson, on the road, should keep Notre Dame among the best one-loss teams seeking a playoff spot. Stanford's win in Week 12 solidified its spot in the Pac-12 title game. A win over a Top 5 program, along with the potential win in the Pac-12 Championship, might be enough to boost the Cardinal to a final-four spot. In 101 simulations, Stanford was victorious 51.0 percent of the time, winning by an average score of 28.8-28.6.
No. 5 Oklahoma vs. No. 9 Oklahoma State
It truly will be bedlam in Oklahoma, and in the Big 12, if the Sooners lose this game. A member of the Big 12 missed a spot in the College Football Playoff last year, likely because of the lack of a conference title game. Three teams have one loss in the Big 12. Oklahoma would make this easy if they win this week, since they already beat Baylor. If not, they could be in the same predicament as last season. News was released on Monday that Sooners QB Baker Mayfield passed concussion tests and could play in this game. The college football simulation engine has the Sooners winning 53.5 percent of the time by an average score of 27.8-25.8.
Week 13 Upset Pick
UCLA (+3) over USC
USC has won the majority of the games between these two teams. However, UCLA has won three straight in this rivalry. The Trojans are three-point favorites, but it is the Bruins who are projected to win by an average score of 30.7-27.8.
In addition, view our Week 13 power rankings or visit our college football archive for predictions from past weeks. For more statistics, view our weekly college football predictions.