WhatIfSports 2015 NFL Playoff and Super Bowl Predictions
WhatIfSports.com used its NFL simulation engine to play every game of the 2015 season 501 times. The simulation generated division standings based on average win/loss records. We then simulated a playoff featuring the eight division winners and four Wild Card teams, again playing each matchup 501 times.
The simulation's projected conference standings can be viewed at the bottom of the article. Division winners in the AFC include the New England Patriots, Baltimore Ravens, Indianapolis Colts and Denver Broncos. The Pittsburgh Steelers and Houston Texans each advance to the playoffs as Wild Card participants. In the NFC, the Philadelphia Eagles, Green Bay Packers, New Orleans Saints and Seattle Seahawks are division winners, while the Dallas Cowboys and Detroit Lions capture Wild Card berths.
Wild Card Predictions
| |||
---|---|---|---|
Matchup | Win % | Avg. Score | |
Pittsburgh Steelers | 48.8 | 22.8 | |
@ Baltimore Ravens | 51.2 | 23.3 | Simulate Game |
Houston Texans | 29.4 | 17.3 | |
@ Denver Broncos | 70.6 | 24.7 | Simulate Game |
Dallas Cowboys | 57.9 | 24.1 | |
@ New Orleans Saints | 42.1 | 21.5 | Simulate Game |
Detroit Lions | 38.1 | 21.1 | |
@ Philadelphia Eagles | 61.9 | 24.6 | Simulate Game |
While the Steelers may have lost their bite on defense, Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown and Le'Veon Bell can light up the scoreboard against any opponent. However, the more well-rounded Ravens advance in this matchup of division foes.
The surprise AFC Wild Card participant is the Broncos. Peyton Manning's first three seasons in Denver produced first-round byes in the playoffs. Not the case this year, when the team's 11-5 record earned it the No. 3 seed in the AFC. The Broncos make easy work of the Texans though, winning by more than a touchdown per simulation.
In the NFC, Dallas lost the East division, but snagged a Wild Card spot with a 9-7 record. The Cowboys keep their season alive with a victory over the Saints, who managed a successful season in the post-Jimmy Graham era.
The Eagles take the final Wild Card game with a win over Detroit. Chip Kelly's retooled offense with Sam Bradford and DeMarco Murray stays as high-powered as ever and proves too much for the Lions D to contain.
Divisional Predictions
| |||
---|---|---|---|
Matchup | Win % | Avg. Score | |
Baltimore Ravens | 31.7 | 21.1 | |
@ Indianapolis Colts | 68.3 | 27.0 | Simulate Game |
Denver Broncos | 50.5 | 23.6 | |
@ New England Patriots | 49.5 | 23.0 | Simulate Game |
Dallas Cowboys | 42.9 | 21.0 | |
@ Green Bay Packers | 57.1 | 23.1 | Simulate Game |
Philadelphia Eagles | 48.2 | 21.3 | |
@ Seattle Seahawks | 51.8 | 21.5 | Simulate Game |
In the Divisional round, Chuck Pagano's Colts, well-rested and with the league's best record at 12-4, cruise past Baltimore and into the AFC Championship. This marks the second year in a row that the Ravens have won in the Wild Card round only to lose in Round 2.
Playing for the right to join the Colts in the AFC Championship are the Broncos and Patriots. The latest chapter in the Manning-Brady saga has a hero vs. villain storyline, with most of the country pulling for a Denver victory. Prayers are answered as the Broncos narrowly survive in Foxborough.
The Cowboys have spent a year stewing over last season's controversial playoff exit to the Packers, when a Dez Bryant fourth-down catch was overturned. A year later, Dallas again falls short as Aaron Rodgers navigates his squad back to the NFC Championship.
The other NFC Divisional matchup pits Pete Carroll against Chip Kelly and one of the league's most stalwart defenses against one of its best offensive attacks. Ultimately, the Seahawks' playoff experience carries the day as Seattle sets up a Conference Championship rematch with Green Bay.
Conference Championship Predictions
| |||
---|---|---|---|
Matchup | Win % | Avg. Score | |
Denver Broncos | 45.2 | 24.8 | |
@ Indianapolis Colts | 54.8 | 26.3 | Simulate Game |
Green Bay Packers | 45.3 | 20.9 | |
@ Seattle Seahawks | 54.7 | 22.6 | Simulate Game |
A season ago, the Colts eliminated the Broncos from the playoffs with a Divisional win at Mile High, Denver's only home loss of the season. A year later, the teams meet in the AFC Championship as Andrew Luck attempts to again best his predecessor. Perhaps it's fitting that the Colts prevail. If Peyton Manning hangs up the cleats after the season, his last game will have been in Indianapolis.
The Colts will be joined in the Super Bowl by Seattle, which again eliminates Green Bay in the NFC Championship. The Seahawks' success has officially reached historic levels, as they become the third team to play in three consecutive Super Bowls, joining the Miami Dolphins (1971-72 through 1973-74) and Buffalo Bills (1990-91 through 1993-94).
Super Bowl 50 Prediction
| |||
---|---|---|---|
Matchup | Win % | Avg. Score | |
Indianapolis Colts | 59.6 | 24.6 | |
vs. Seattle Seahawks | 40.4 | 21.8 | Simulate Game |
Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California hosts Super Bowl 50, as the Seahawks look to regain their perch as the league's best team, while the Colts seek their first championship since Super Bowl XLII.
The NFL simulation engine envisions the Colts to capture the Lombardi Trophy, beating the Seahawks by nearly a field goal per simulation. The new additions of Andre Johnson and Frank Gore are enough tools for Luck to complete his ascension as one of the league's great quarterbacks.
Be sure to follow WhatIfSports.com's NFL predictions throughout the season, including our Week 1 picks.
2015 Projected Conference Standings | ||
---|---|---|
AFC East | Wins | Losses |
New England Patriots* | 11 | 5 |
Miami Dolphins | 9 | 7 |
Buffalo Bills | 8 | 8 |
Nerw York Jets | 6 | 10 |
AFC North | Wins | Losses |
Baltimore Ravens* | 9 | 7 |
Pittsburgh Steelers+ | 9 | 7 |
Cincinnati Bengals | 9 | 7 |
Cleveland Browns | 5 | 11 |
AFC South | Wins | Losses |
Indianapolis Colts* | 12 | 4 |
Houston Texans+ | 9 | 7 |
Tennessee Titans | 6 | 10 |
Jacksonville Jaguars | 5 | 11 |
AFC West | Wins | Losses |
Denver Broncos* | 11 | 5 |
Kansas City Chiefs | 8 | 8 |
San Diego Chargers | 7 | 9 |
Oakland Raiders | 6 | 10 |
NFC East | Wins | Losses |
Philadelphia Eagles* | 11 | 5 |
Dallas Cowboys+ | 9 | 7 |
New York Giants | 8 | 8 |
Washington Redskins | 6 | 10 |
NFC North | Wins | Losses |
Green Bay Packers* | 11 | 5 |
Detroit Lions+ | 8 | 8 |
Minnesota Vikings | 7 | 9 |
Chicago Bears | 6 | 10 |
NFC South | Wins | Losses |
New Orleans Saints* | 9 | 7 |
Atlanta Falcons | 8 | 8 |
Carolina Panthers | 6 | 10 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 6 | 10 |
NFC West | Wins | Losses |
Seattle Seahawks* | 11 | 5 |
Arizona Cardinals | 8 | 8 |
San Francisco 49ers | 6 | 10 |
St. Louis Rams | 6 | 10 |
Playoff participants are denoted by * (division winners) and + (wild card recipients). Tie breakers are based on projected win percentage.