WhatIfSports 2014 College Football Week 10 Predictions

By foxsports
Published

Each Monday, WhatIfSports.com's NCAA college football simulation engine provides game predictions for every D-1 FBS game that upcoming week. The college football simulation engine generates detailed information for each game including each team's chances of winning (Win%) and the average points scored for both teams. 

Check out our 2014 College Football Season-to-Date page to follow our accuracy and for Upsets of the Week.

The statistical inputs to the thousands of college football simulations are based on rigorous analysis of each team's roster, depth charts and statistically based player rankings. Roster modifications are made in cases of injury or suspension and those players are removed from their team's game simulation for that week.

Game of the Week: Auburn at Ole Miss

It's time to review what statistically went wrong for Ole Miss in their Week 9 game against LSU and what went right within our simulation engine.

Heading into the game, the Rebels allowed about 97 rush yards per game. The Tigers racked up 264 yards on 55 carries (4.8 YPR) led by freshman tailback Leonard Fournette's 113 yards. That was a heavy statistical swing in favor of Les Miles' squad. That was the bad.

But LSU's four turnovers truly evened the statistical playing field and flipped the simulation script in favor of the Rebels. The problem was Ole Miss could only muster seven first-quarter points off those four extra possessions. Bo Wallace's first interception thrown in conference play - in the game's final seconds - was Mississippi's only turnover of the game and cost them a shot at a last-second field goal to tie.

For more statistical resume info with a larger sample size of data on Ole Miss, be sure to review our Week 9 Game of the Week college football preview.

The Rebels highly touted rush defense - now ranked 18th in the nation at 118 YAPG - better catch a case of sports amnesia as our Week 10 featured matchup has Ole Miss facing Auburn and their 10th-ranked rush offense averaging 281 yards per contest. The Tigers rank 25th in scoring defense at just under 21 points allowed per game. However, where Bo Wallace and company can take advantage of their defensive Achilles' heel is via the pass, where Auburn ranks 76th at 242 pass yards allowed per game.

On offense, Auburn quarterback Nick Marshall has contributed in the passing and rushing attack through the first nine weeks of the season. He's completed over 58 percent of his passes for over 1,100 yards with 11 touchdowns and three interceptions in the rush-first offense. Marshall is the second-leading rusher on the team with 581 yards and a team-high seven rushing touchdowns. Lead running back, Cameron Artis-Payne ranks 19th in the nation at 118 rush yards per game with six scores to this point.

We simulated the Rebels and Tigers 101 times and the simulation engine likes Auburn to win 59.9 percent of the time by an average score of 22.8-21.7.

For additional statistics, view our weekly college football predictions.