Week 9 Team OddsShark SuperContest NFL Tips and Trends
Each week during the 2015 NFL season, FOX Sports fantasy editor Ryan Fowler and WhatIfSports.com's NFL simulation engine, both part of Team OddsShark, will share three of their five Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest picks. Deadline for entering picks is 8pm ET Fridays.
Follow Team OddsShark's performance all season long with weekly picks (posted each Saturday afternoon) and current standings.
Picks subject to change after initial publication.
Ryan Fowler - FOX Fantasy
Patriots (-13.5) over Redskins
Broncos (-5) over Colts
Steelers (-4) over Raiders
WhatIfSports NFL Simulation Engine
Falcons (-7) cover against 49ers
After a 5-0 start, Atlanta has dropped two of three, including last week’s overtime loss to Tampa Bay. However, if there is an opponent that can help reverse that trend, it may be the 49ers. San Francisco is 2-6, most recently losing to St. Louis by 21 points. The situation is dire enough that Colin Kaepernick has been benched in favor of Blaine Gabbert. If WhatIfSports.com’s Week 9 predictions are correct, that isn’t a recipe for success. In 501 simulations of Falcons vs. 49ers, Atlanta won 83.0 percent of the time, outscoring San Francisco by an average score of 31-18. The Falcons covered the spread 61.9 percent of the time.
Panthers (+2.5) over Packers
Perhaps the highlight of the Week 9 schedule, 7-0 Carolina faces its toughest test of the season against 6-1 Green Bay. The odds favor the Packers by two and a half points, but our NFL simulation engine likes the Panthers to protect home field. Carolina won 52.1 percent of simulations, edging the Packers by an average score of 21-20. While the engine isn’t putting a tremendous amount of confidence in Carolina, it does like the Panthers to cover the spread 56.9 percent of the time.
Broncos (-5) cover against Colts
Peyton Manning appears to have lost a step this season, but he’s supported by perhaps the NFL’s best defense. Denver’s undefeated record survived a Week 8 showdown with Green Bay in which the team held Aaron Rodgers to 77 yards passing. If that same squad shows up against Andrew Luck, who’s tossed a league-high 12 interceptions, the game could quickly turn into a route. Our simulations predict Denver to come out on top 72.8 percent of the time by an average score of 28-19. The Broncos covered the five-point spread in 60.7 percent of simulations.
Browns at Bengals
The Bengals sit at 11.5 favorites over the Browns, largest spread in their favor since 2009, Bengals are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games when favored by 11 points or more dating back to 1990.
The Bengals are 8-1 SU in their last nine games after winning as an underdog.
The Browns are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games as underdogs against the Bengals.
The Browns are 2-9 SU in their last 11 games on the road in November.
The Browns are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as road underdogs.
The Bengals are 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in their last four games in November.
The home team is 8-3 in the last 11 games in this matchup.
Dolphins at Bills
The Bills are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games after losing as favorite.
The Dolphins are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games in Week 9.
The Dolphins are 7-3 SU in their last 10 games after a loss.
The Bills are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games after consecutive losses.
The Bills are 0-5 SU in their last five games in Week 9.
The Dolphins are 4-10 SU and ATS in their last 14 games against the Bills in November.
The Dolphins are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as road underdogs in November.
Packers at Panthers
The Packers are 6-1 SU in their last seven games after losing as favorite.
The Panthers are 3-8 SU in their last 11 games in Week 9.
The Packers are 5-0 SU in their last five games after a loss.
The Packers are 6-2 SU in their last eight games against the Panthers.
The Panthers are 2-7 SU in their last nine games at home in November.
The Packers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games in November.
Rams at Vikings
The away team is 4-0 SU and ATS in the last four games in this matchup.
The Rams are 1-6 SU and ATS in their last seven games in Week 9.
The Vikings are 1-5 SU in their last six games after consecutive wins.
The Rams are 1-11 SU in their last 12 games after consecutive wins.
The Rams are 0-3 SU and ATS in their last three games against the Vikings.
The Rams are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as road underdogs in November.
The Vikings are 14-3 SU in their last 17 games at home in November.
Redskins at Patriots
The Patriots sit at 15 point favorites over Redskins, this is the biggest underdog the Redskins have been since 1995; they were +14.5 also at New England Oct 28, 2007 and lost 52-7.
It's also the biggest favorite for the Patriots since 2011.
The Redskins are 1-6 SU and ATS in their last seven games after the bye.
The Redskins are 1-9 SU in their last 10 games after a win.
The Redskins are 5-2 SU in their seven games against the Patriots since 1980.
The Patriots are 5-0 ATS in their last five games at home in November.
The Patriots are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games when favored by two touchdowns or more.
Titans at Saints
The Saints are 33-12 SU in their last 45 games after consecutive wins.
The Saints are 12-4 SU in their last 16 games at home in November.
The Titans are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games on the road.
The Titans are 0-6 SU in their last six games.
The Saints are 7-1 SU in their last eight games in Week 9.
Jaguars at Jets
The Jaguars are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games against the Jets.
The Jaguars are 0-4 SU and ATS in their last four games after winning as an underdog.
The Jets are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games after losing as favorite.
The Jets are 18-6-1 ATS in their last 25 games in Week 9.
The total has gone under in four of the Jets' last five games in November.
The Jets are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games.
Raiders at Steelers
The Raiders are 2-10 SU and ATS in their last 12 games after winning as an underdog.
The Steelers are 8-2 SU and 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games after a loss.
The total has gone over in seven of the Raiders' last eight games after an ATS win.
The Raiders are 4-1 SU in their last five games against the Steelers.
The Raiders are 5-1 ATS in their last six games against the Steelers.
The Steelers are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games as home favorites in November.
The Raiders are 3-17 SU in their last 20 games as road underdogs.
Falcons at 49ers
The home team is 11-4 in the last 15 games in this matchup.
The 49ers are 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS in their last five games before the bye at home.
The Falcons are 2-7 SU in their last nine games after consecutive ATS losses.
The total has gone under in 12 of the Falcons' last 14 games in Week 9.
The Falcons are 2-11 SU in their last 13 games on the road against the 49ers.
The Falcons are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games on the road against the 49ers.
The 49ers are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games at home.
The Falcons are 12-3 SU in their last 15 games as road favorites in November.
Giants at Buccaneers
The Buccaneers are 0-6 SU in their last six games after a win.
The Giants are 20-8 SU in their last 28 games in Week 9.
The Giants are 0-5 ATS in their last five games against the Buccaneers in November.
The Buccaneers are 1-11 SU and 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games at home.
The Buccaneers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games in November.
The Giants are 0-7 SU in their last seven games in November.
The total has gone under in five of the Giants' last six games as road favorites.
Broncos at Colts
The home team is 7-3 SU in the last 10 games in this matchup.
The Broncos are 8-1 SU in their last nine games after winning as an underdog.
The Colts are 3-0 SU and ATS in their last three games in Week 9.
The Broncos are 1-7 SU and 0-8 ATS in their last eight games against the Colts.
The Colts are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games at home in November.
The Broncos are 9-3 SU in their last 12 games on the road in November.
Eagles at Cowboys
The away team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight games in this matchup.
The Cowboys are 11-3 SU and ATS in their last 14 games after consecutive losses.
The Eagles are 9-3 SU and ATS in their last 12 games after a loss.
The Cowboys are 0-5 ATS in their last five games in Week 9.
The Eagles are 2-5 SU in their last seven games against the Cowboys.
The total has gone over in 10 of the Cowboys' last 14 games as underdogs in November.
The Cowboys are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games at home in November.
The Eagles are 7-1 SU and ATS in their last eight games in November.
Bears at Chargers
The Chargers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games after an ATS win.
The Bears are 4-0 SU in their last four games in Week 9.
The Bears are 4-0 SU and ATS in their last four games against the Chargers in November.
The Chargers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games as favorites.
The total has gone over in seven of the Bears' last eight games on the road in November.
The Bears are 0-5 SU and ATS in their last five games as underdogs in November.
The Chargers are 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games.