Week 8 DraftKings College Football Preview
Last week I was away, doing some signings for my new book, and a funny thing happened: America went into an outrage. All day Thursday, and all day Friday a bunch of you hit up my Twitter feed, asking one simple question: Dude, where's your OKTC DraftKings preview? I need it. You've got to make me rich!
Sure to some, that sounds like a lot of pressure... but much like Michigan State's punt block team I thrive under pressure! Coming off a personal bye week, I'm back and ready to make you some cash, with the Week 8 OKTC DraftKings preview!
As always, for those of you who aren't familiar with DraftKings, here are the details:
- Private contest for Outkick The Coverage readers
- Free for new users or $3 to enter
- Only 200 spots so join quickly!
- $600 in prizes
- First place wins $200
- Top 44 scores win money guaranteed
- Starts Sunday, October 25th at 1:00 PM EST
- Salary Cap Style Drafting. $50,000 to select 9 spots. 8 players and 1 defense.
- Roster Format: 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex and 1 Defense
You can sign up here.
And here are the picks that are destined to make you millions!
Quarterback:
Greg Ward Jr., Houston ($8,800)
Three weeks ago I told you about Ward Jr., the short, stocky, slow-witted bald man...
Woops, my bad. I think I just confused Houston's quarterback with George Costanza. Maybe I'm a bit rustier than I thought.
Either way, Ward Jr. is short and stocky... but he's also lightning quick, impossible to defend, and has arguably been the most consistent quarterback in daily fantasy all year. Who wouldn't want a quarterback who is averaging over 250 yards passing, 100 yards rushing, and just under four touchdowns a game?
Especially when that same player is going up against arguably the worst defense he'll see all year, an 0-7 club which has quit on its coach (or has their coach quit on them? I can't remember), quit on its season and has allowed an average of 36 points over the last four games?
Umm, yeah, I'll take that guy please!
And you should too.
DeShaun Watson, Clemson ($8,000)
You're also going to want to start DeShaun Watson, and you're going to want to do it for two reasons.
The first, is that Miami's pass defense is horrible. Sure, the numbers say they're alright, but as we all know, numbers can be misleading.
Take Miami's pass defense for example.
Sure they rank "53rd nationally" but those numbers are skewed by playing a couple lousy teams. And what those numbers also don't tell you is that when the Hurricanes play real teams, they struggle to stop the pass.
Miami allowed just under 300 yards to a backup quarterback from Cincinnati a few weeks ago. They allowed well over 300 yards to Tommie Armstrong Jr. and Nebraska, even though the Cornhuskers had no choice but to pass for about the last 35 minutes of the game. And they also gave up 291 yards passing to Florida State and Everett Golson a few weeks ago... which, by the way, is the same number of yards Golson threw for during his entire time at Notre Dame.
Also, in addition to all that, the other reason I am starting Watson this week is because of this: As bad as Miami's pass defense is their offense is actually kinda, sorta good. Not necessarily good enough to pull off the win Saturday. But good enough to keep the game close, and force Watson to throw the ball late into the fourth quarter.
Add it all up, and it means that Clemson probably wins by a score of like 38-28, Watson ends up throwing for around 300 yards passing and three TD's, and you end up holding up one of those big checks on a DraftKings commercial, and saying something like "I turned $11 into $1 million... thanks DraftKings!"
Not bad, right? Well it will only happen if you put DeShaun Watson in your starting lineup.
Running back:
Samaje Perine, Oklahoma ($5,400)
I already know what you're thinking: "Really Torres? You're putting Samaje Perine in your starting lineup? Have you seen the guy this year? He's been worse than Butch Jones' play-calling in the fourth quarter."
First of all, that hurts.
Secondly, if there was ever a game that Perine was due to break out, it'd have to be this one, right?
For starters, he's going against a terrible Texas Tech run defense (they rank 123rd nationally out of 128 teams), and a terrible Texas Tech run defense that has specifically struggled with running backs just like Perine, who run right at you.
Remember, Texas Tech is the same team that gave up 170 yards rushing to Alex Collins. They gave up 225 yards rushing to Shock Linwood. Crap, they gave up over 100 yards to some running back from Kansas last week, who's more likely to be working at Enterprise than playing football in a couple years.
Look, daily fantasy is all about value.
And you're never going to get Perine at a better value than you will this week.
Rawleigh Williams III, Arkansas ($3,400)
I love Rawleigh Williams at this price.
For those of you who haven't been paying attention, Williams has become a legitimate second option in the Arkansas' running game, the guy who puts up huge stats when defenses get worn down in the fourth quarter, and get tired of trying to tackle Alex Collins. Outside of the Alabama game two weeks ago (when nothing went right for the Hogs) Williams has been getting better every week (including 100 yards against Tennessee) and with a week off, both he and the Arkansas offensive line should be at their best.
Add in the fact that the Razorbacks are facing an Auburn defense that's apathetic to tackling, and it could be a huge day for Williams.
Wide receiver:
Aaron Burbridge, Michigan State ($6,700)
For starters, let's get one this clear: Burbridge's selection has nothing to do with "Michigan State riding momentum off their big win against Michigan." Nope, the Spartans still stink. And yes, they were lucky to get a win last Saturday.
But with that said, one thing that we also know about Michigan State is that Burbridge is by far their best wide receiver. That's also what made his performance against Michigan last week --- nine catches for 132 yards --- so darn impressive. When one of the best defenses in college football knows that you're the best (and at times only) passing option for your team, and you still go for over 100 yards, you're doing something pretty special.
It also leads me to this question: If Burbridge went for 132 yards on nine catches against a really good Michigan defense, what the hell is he going to do against Indiana, which ranks 127th nationally in passing defense?
Ricardo Louis, Auburn ($5,000)
I'm not quite ready to say that Auburn kicking Duke Williams off their team was "addition by subtraction"... but it sure looked like it last Thursday against Kentucky. It also looked like the offense found balance, and that Louis emerged as the unquestioned No. 1 receiver for the Tigers.
The Tigers finally got into a groove against Kentucky, which also coincided with a breakout game from Louis, who had 154 yards on seven catches.
Again, we're going for value here; for the price you're getting Louis, you can't beat it.
I doubt he's this cheap in coming weeks.
Get him at this price while you can.
Dede Westbrook, Oklahoma ($5,300)
This one is really about simple math: Dede Westbrook is the second best receiver on Oklahoma. Oklahoma is playing Texas Tech this week. When just about any team plays Texas Tech's defense, their second best receiver puts up "best receiver in any other game," type numbers.
So basically, you're getting JuJu Smith or Christian Kirk type production...without having to, you know, pay for JuJu Smith or Christian Kirk.
To which I ask: What's better than that?
FLEX:
Terry Swanson, Toledo ($4,400)
There are a couple traditions I hold sacred in life: Make sure to attend church on Christmas Eve. Never swear around women. And always figure out who is playing UMass, and start their running back in DraftKings that week.
Ok, so I definitely don't follow the first two traditions.... but the third one, I do in fact hold sacred. And it's paid dividends so far this season.
Three weeks ago I started Bowling Green's Travis Greene (no relation that I know of) and he tallied 122 yards on 15 carries, and this week, I suspect Swanson will put up similar numbers. He's averaged 129 yards in the last three games, and again, is going up against a UMass run defense which allows more than 230 yards per game.
I don't care if you've never heard of Swanson.
I don't care if the name "Terry Swanson" sounds more like a character from one of those "Police Academy" movies than a major college football player.
Trust me on this one: You want him in your lineup.
DeAnthony Arnett, Michigan State ($3,000)
I'll be blunt: Much like Louisville's basketball coaching staff, it's the end of the night (I'm writing this at roughly 1am on Wednesday), and I need someone cheap who can get the job done.
Arnett only has five catches all year, but two have gone for touchdowns, and again, the Spartans are facing the second worst pass defense in college football this weekend.
Am I proud of taking Arnett here?
No. But desperate times call for desperate measures.
And much like Rick Pitino trying to land a three-star recruit, I'm desperate right now.
Aaron Torres is a contributor to Outkick the Coverage and FOXSports.com. Follow him on Twitter @Aaron_Torres, Facebook or e-mail at ATorres00@gmail.com.