Week 5 Draftkings GPP Lineup Analysis

Oct 9, 2016; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver Sammie Coates (14) catches a pass for a seventy-two yard touchdown against the New York Jets during the first quarter at Heinz Field. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

With Week 5 in the books, I am forced to suffer through another week of someone else winning the Millionaire Maker guaranteed prize pool. No limo, no photo shoot and definitely no 10 foot long million dollar check. “Wait till next week” is my rallying cry, along with 256,902 other players! That’s not to say I didn’t have some GPP success this week. A number of my other GPP lineups cashed in other GPP tournaments. My best millionaire maker lineup (I entered 3) cashed out for $30 with a tally of 160.68. But, my most successful lineup of the day (208.44), which I felt was strong enough to enter in GPP and cash games, made it a very successful weekend.

I have scored in the 200’s a number of times before with my best being a 221.86 which was good enough for 145th place in last year’s Millionaire Maker season finale. I would have placed higher if Adrian Peterson didn’t go down with an injury in the Sunday night game in the first quarter! My point is simple: constructing a GPP lineup is 2 parts skill and 1 part luck. We have very little control over various intangibles such as: injuries, weather, new defensive schemes, offensive play calling and game flow. Therefore, we have to put ourselves in the best position to win based on the skill part and hope for the best in the luck part.

Week 5 GPP Lineup: Most GPP lineups can hit big or flop based upon the performance of your contrarian picks. But, flopping is relative because week 5’s GPP Lineup score of 139.96 could be considered a flop in tournament play but, could have a good win rate in cash games. Either way, to be competitive, or at least cash out in GPP, we need to be above 150. However, to achieve a significant “cash-out” we need to be above 200. So since we didn’t meet either of those criteria with my published lineup, I deem it a fail. Let’s examine where we came up short:

Stacks: my first stack of Sammie Coates and Antonio Brown paid off well with 34.9 & 22.8 points, respectively. However, my Giants stack of Eli Manning and Odell Beckham, Jr. didn’t fare so well with an output of 11.06 & 16.6, respectively. A GPP lineup cannot recover from a QB/WR stack that doesn’t produce; Sammie Coates outscored this stacks total of 27.66. This alone is the biggest reason for the failure of this lineup but, there certainly was other contributing factors.

Dolphins inept passing offense: while doing my due diligence a stat stood out that showed how well the number 2 receiver was doing against the Titans secondary. In weeks 3 & 4, Will Fuller & Michael Crabtree soared, while DeAndre Hopkins & Amari Cooper floundered. So by that matchup logic, Jarvis Landry would have a bad day and the #2 receiver for the Dolphins should do well against the Titans #2 corner.

Now it was simply a matter of choosing between Kenny Stills and DeVante Parker. It ended up being a moot point as the entire Dolphins receiving corp took the day off with their QB. Ultimately, my choice of Stills, which was a pricing decision, provided a big “Goose Egg!” Now, I believe it is possible to survive one bad play. My 208.44 lineup had Steve Smith Sr.and he went down to injury early. But, to place in the top 100, you need to average at least 25 FP’s per slot.

Overrating a rookie: I, like many others, am guilty of falling into the “Rookie” trap. I overvalued Carson Wentz which in turn affected my Ertz play. I am confident that Bradford would have had Ertz significantly higher than 6.7 FP’s. Wentz is still showing signs of not being able to make his progression read adequately. He is quick to check down to his running backs, which were targeted more than his Wide Receivers this week. Monitoring Wentz’s progression going forward would be wise if considering playing Ertz or Matthews. Especially considering this poor performance came at the hands of the 23rd ranked passing defense.

Wrap-up: We need to strive for a good balance of consistent picks and contrarian picks when filling out our GPP lineups. Does that mean having a 7 to 2 ratio of consistent to contrarian picks…or a 6 to 3, or 8 to 1? There is no magic formula to a winning GPP lineup, so you need to read the weekly landscape. This week’s Millionaire Maker winner only had 2 “contrarian” picks in Sammie Coates and Randall Cobb. All the other selections were the # 1 for each team (I consider Martellus Bennett a # 1 this week as Gronkowski is still hobbled) and it paid off well for Jamal07.

Remember, it may only take 1 pick to differentiate yourself, depending on the ownership percentage. Weigh your options at each position and decide what will be necessary to stand out if your lineup hits big. Good luck to all in week 6, look me up on DK and friend/challenge me. My Draftkings username is LWRG-Men. Keep an eye out for my next article where we will be addressing Week 6 in Daily Fantasy Football.