Updating Mike Trout's Historical Context
Two years ago, Mike Trout had the best age-20 season of all-time, by Wins Above Replacement. Last year, Trout had the best age-21 season of all time, by Wins Above Replacement. This year, Mike Trout will not have the best age-22 season of all time, because he'€™s regressed a little bit and also because holy crap Ted Williams.
But just because Trout hasn'€™t had the best season of any player ever at this age doesn't mean we can't have fun appreciating where his updated career totals have him relative to everyone else who has ever played the game. So, here are the five best players through their age-22 season, by WAR.
| Name | PA | Off | Def | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Trout | 2,157 | 186.3 | 13.7 | 29.0 |
| Ty Cobb | 2,490 | 165.5 | -24.0 | 25.9 |
| Mel Ott | 2,640 | 180.7 | -0.7 | 25.1 |
| Ted Williams | 1,944 | 199.6 | -21.4 | 24.8 |
| Jimmie Foxx | 1,974 | 154.5 | -1.3 | 21.0 |
Modern defensive metrics have error bars, of course, and that goes double for numbers from 100 years ago, so you can essentially do whatever you want with those DEF numbers and adjust accordingly; this list is not gospel. But there's Trout at the top, and even if you ignored defense and position to just rate by offensive runs above average, he'€™d fall all the way to #2, behind only Ted Williams.
But that's not unexpected; the guy who ranks #1 in WAR at both age-20 and age-21 should rank at the top of this leaderboard. So instead, here's a slightly more fun list; the best players through their age-23 season, all time, by WAR.
| Name | PA | Off | Def | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ted Williams | 2,615 | 285.6 | -22.9 | 36.4 |
| Ty Cobb | 3,080 | 236.4 | -20.0 | 36.2 |
| Mel Ott | 3,313 | 245.3 | -3.3 | 33.2 |
| Mickey Mantle | 2,841 | 193.0 | 0.8 | 29.5 |
| Mike Trout | 2,157 | 186.3 | 13.7 | 29.0 |
Trout is virtually tied with Mickey Mantle for #4 on this list, ranking behind only three Hall of Famers. And Mike Trout has not yet had his age-23 season. That will be next year, and with another reasonable Trout season, he'€™ll pass Williams and take the top spot on that list too.
Things will get a little harder two years from now, since Ty Cobb put up 47 WAR through his age-24 season, meaning Trout will need +18 WAR over the next two years to catch him. He can do it --€” he'€™s put up 18 WAR the last two years -- but he's not a shoe-in, and so in a few years, we might actually have a list of best careers through a specific age where Trout is not #1. But it wouldn't be too shocking if he caught Cobb and ended up atop that list too.
Let'€™s appreciate what we'€™re seeing here. The term generational talent gets thrown around too much, but Mike Trout is a generational talent.