Trade deadline reaction: Analysts like Brewers' haul of prospects
The Milwaukee Brewers made two deals before Monday's non-waiver trade deadline, sending left-handed reliever Will Smith to San Francisco for pitching prospect Phil Bickford and catcher Andrew Susac as well as shipping catcher Jonathan Lucroy and closer Jeremy Jeffress to Texas for two prospects, outfielder Lewis Brinson and pitcher Luis Ortiz, plus a player to be named later.
The trading of these three players was hardly a surprise as all had been firmly placed on the rumor mill for some time -- and Lucroy had been dealt the previous day to Cleveland only to void it as the Indians were one of the few teams on his no-trade list.
Note that Milwaukee can still make deals, just that players must be placed on waivers first. When this happens, four things can occur: 1. A player is unclaimed and can be dealt; 2. A player is claimed and Milwaukee and the claiming team can try and work out a deal; 3. A player is claimed and Milwaukee revokes putting that player on waivers; 4. A player is claimed and Milwaukee allows that player (and his contract) to be picked up off waivers by the claiming team with no compensation. A player can only be placed on waivers once, so if a waiver is revoked, it isn't like the Brewers could try to sneak him through again.
But back to the non-waiver deadline. How did the Brewers do in these deals and who are these prospects Milwaukee acquired? We've scoured the web to find out. Here's the rundown:
First, Texas general manager Jon Daniels on Brinson: "In addition to having the athleticism to play center field, he can hit for power. And he's a good person on top of being a really unique talent - the kind of guy you want, what you want to be about."
FOXSports.com's Dieter Kurtenbach gave the Brewers a trade deadline grade of an A+ and says Milwaukee "fleeced the Giants".
On MLB.com's list of top-30 Brewers prospects, Brinson comes in at No. 2, Ortiz No. 5 and Bickford No. 6. In fact, seven of Milwaukee's top-10 prospects have been acquired via trade -- Brinson, Josh Hader (No. 4), Ortiz, Bickford, Brett Phillips (No. 8), Gilbert Lara (No. 9) and Isan Diaz (No. 9). With Orlando Arcia being called up to the big leagues, you can soon push everyone up a spot, too.
MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo ranked the prospects who were traded and he has three new Brewers listed highly. At No. 2 is Brinson: "The toolsy outfielder had made tremendous strides with his plate discipline heading into the 2016 season while improving his work in center field as well. He struggled early, and missed a good chunk of time with a shoulder injury. He was starting to get the bat going more consistently after rehabbing the shoulder and gives the Brewers an outfielder with 30-30 potential."; No. 5 is Ortiz: "Ortiz somehow managed to pitch extremely well in the hitting haven of High Desert in the California League and earned a promotion to Double-A after seven games. While he was still trying to figure things out at the level until a groin injury put him on the shelf, Ortiz continued to show the exciting combination of stuff and command that gives him a ceiling of perhaps a No. 2 starter."; No. 6 is Bickford: "Milwaukee did very well to get Bickford, the Giants' No. 1 prospect, 2015 first-round pick and 2016 Futures Game participant, for reliever Smith. Bickford began the year in the South Atlantic League, earned a promotion up to the California League, and pitched well in both places, with a combined 2.71 ERA, .208 batting average against and 10.2 K/9 ratio (vs. just 2.6 BB/9)."
CBSSports.com's R.J. Anderson really likes what the Brewers did and has Brinson and Ortiz as his top-two prospects traded at the deadline and Bickford No. 4.
Bill Baer of Hardball Talk lists the Brewers as one of his four trade deadline-day winners. "Like the Yankees, the Brewers were able to ship out some veterans to truly bolster their minor league system. The club sent Lucroy and Jeffress to the Rangers for outfield prospect Lewis Brinson and pitching prospect Luis Ortiz, rated as #2 and 3 in the Rangers' system, respectively, by MLB Pipeline. Reliever Will Smith went to the Giants for catcher Andrew Susac and pitching prospect Phil Bickford, who is now rated fourth in the Brewers' system. That's a pretty good day."
The Brewers are labeled one of the deadline day's winners by Grant Bisbee of SBNation, who says Milwaukee -- for the second straight year -- got a better trade package after a deal fell through.
Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune labels Lucroy as one of his losers of the trade deadline. His rationale? Because Lucroy said he wanted to be traded to a contender back in spring training then voided the deal to Cleveland. "It was all lip service," Sullivan wrote. "The Brewers gave him the chance to go to a Series contender, and Lucroy rejected the trade to the Indians. Hopefully the teams meet in the playoffs." (Note: Don't shoot the messenger on this one, folks.)
David Schoenfield of ESPN.com also lists Lucroy as one of his losers, but for a different reason than Sullivan. Namely, no payday forthcoming. "He'll have to play for a mere $5.25 million next season after all (once the Rangers pick up his option). He tried to play his hand, but it didn't work out."
Baseball America had Brinson at its No. 30 prospect at midseason and says he oozes of potential. "Brinson is a power/speed center fielder whose concerns are his ability to hit for average and get on base. Brinson doesn't have to be even a league-average hitter to be a useful big leaguer, but if the improvements he's made to his contact rate start paying off more, he could be more than that. Brinson's stats this year are disappointing -- he's hitting .237/.280/.431 at Double-A Frisco, but scouts who have seen him are still very intrigued by the tools and what they see as modest improvements at the plate. By joining the Brewers, Brinson creates a fascinating competition that should play out over the next couple of years. He and Brett Phillips are both center fielders whose value diminishes if they slide over to a corner outfield spot." BA had Ortiz as its No. 74 prospect and notes he was Texas' top pitching prospect. "He's able to combined above-average stuff with very advanced control. Ortiz pitches off a plus fastball, but unlike most pitchers his age, he's able to effectively work it armside and gloveside, hitting his spots. He also has a potentially plus slider and continues to work on developing an improving changeup. Ortiz carries plenty of weight on his 6-foot-3 frame. He missed some time last year with forearm tightness."
Fangraphs offers its scouting report of Brinson and Ortiz. Writer Eric Longenhagen says Brinson "has superstar level tools" but he strikes out too much. He also notes the outfielder has plus speed and a plus arm. "If Brinson one day figures out what made him so successful last season and is able to recreate it, he's a perennial All Star," Longenhagen writes. "I think this is an excellent buy low for the Brewers." Take it for what you will, but Longenhagen compares Ortiz to Rich Garces, based on body type. But he has a good fastball and slider. "It's mid-rotation stuff and plenty of strike throwing ability. Some are concerned about Ortiz's build, but it hasn't hindered his strike throwing ability or stuff."
Bernie Pleskoff of Today's Knuckleball offered a scouting report of Brinson heading into this year's Futures Game. His conclusion? "When his development is deemed complete, Brinson will make an impact on his team and his league." Additionally, Pleskoff labeled Brinson "an occasional All Star with a long career as a starting centerfielder." Pleskoff includes much of that review in this scouting report, but he also touches on Ortiz, whose future he sees as "a member of the starting rotation on a consistent basis."
Count John Sickels of Minorleagueball.com as another who thinks Brinson has All-Star potential.
Baseball America had Bickford at No. 50 in its midseason top 100 prospects list and compared his fastball to some guy named Madison Bumgarner.
Fangraphs gives its scouting report of Bickford: "This season, his velocity has taken a step backward. At the Futures Game, he was 89-92 and having issues throwing strikes. He's been 88-92 for much of this year and his slider has lacked consistency. He's finally showing a changeup with regularity but it's been poor. This may be a random downtick in stuff that plenty of now dominant big-league starters experienced as they increased their workloads as prospects, or it may be a sign that the best of Bickford has come and gone."
Baseball Prospectus is keen on Susac, who was their No. 97 prospect entering the 2015 season, a season in which a wrist injury curtailed his playing time and production. "A move to Milwaukee will offer him an opportunity to feature his patience/power combination at the plate and carve out a job as an everyday regular for the Brewers. Miller is a wonderful ballpark for a hitter like him, and a move to Milwaukee further benefits the 26-year-old backstop because the Brewers have the luxury of time—the luxury of allowing his wrist to fully heal and to stick with him as he develops defensively and offensively in the majors. It should be noted, though, that his recent hot streak (.326/.365/.596 in July) bodes well for the health of his wrist. . . . Susac gives the Brewers a potential league-average starter who has yet to hit arbitration, while allowing the organization to not rush top-10 prospect Jacob Nottingham." BP isn't as high on Bickford, saying while he is a "quality prospect," his "arm is quick and he has two usable pitches, but there's just not enough to project more than late-innings relief based on a thin arsenal and below-average command."
Scott Mowers of Today's Knuckleball offers his two cents on Bickford and Susac. Mowers says Bickford "is a polarizing prospect in the community. Some see a projectable frame and an exploding fastball with movement, while others see dangerous arm action and a lack of consistent secondaries as reasons he'll wind up in the pen." Meanwhile, he says Susac wasn't just a throw-in, but has a legitimate chance to hold down Milwaukee's catching duties for a while. "Aesthetically, Susac is a Buster Posey clone at the plate. . . . These qualities should allow him to hit in the .250-.260 range as a pro, and with enough pop to reach 10-15 homers annually," Mowers writes. "With average-or-better tools in all phases of receiving and throwing, Susac profiles as a capable starting backstop with a diverse, run-producing offensive skill-set. It's an area where Milwaukee badly needed help after trading their franchise catcher, and Susac may be able to oblige with cheap production for the next several years."
Dave Heller is the author of the upcoming book Ken Williams: A Slugger in Ruth's Shadow as well as Facing Ted Williams Players From the Golden Age of Baseball Recall the Greatest Hitter Who Ever Lived and As Good As It Got: The 1944 St. Louis Browns