Top 10 questions as Coyotes open 2014-15 season
GLENDALE, Ariz. -- Ownership dominated Coyotes news the past two offseasons. Last year, Ice Arizona (ne' Renaissance Sports and Entertainment) finally purchased the team from the NHL after a contentious battle to get an arena lease approved by the Glendale City Council.
This year, Andre Barroway's impending purchase of 51 percent of the franchise produced competing waves of excitement and concern as the team prepares to open the season on Thursday against the Winnipeg Jets.
That's fine. Stable and competent ownership is the foundation to any successful franchise. But at some point soon, stable ownership must also translate into a winning product on the ice. Aside from the failed Mike Ribeiro signing, the Coyotes haven't been major players in free agency or at the trade deadline the past two seasons, mostly because GM Don Maloney's hands were tied by the team's financial constraints or his unwillingness to part with draft picks on a team that needs to improve its farm system.
It's no secret the Coyotes have one of the least skilled forward groups in the Western Conference -- at least that's the perception from analysts and other teams' executives. The franchise mantra all offseason was a desire to get back to the old pack mentality. The Coyotes want to rely on Mike Smith's brilliant goaltending, a young and talented blue line and a core of gritty forwards who bring their lunch pails to work and somehow find a way to eke out points. It's debatable whether all that is a recipe for playoff hockey in the deep Western Conference; it's absolutely not a recipe for winning Stanley Cups.
New ownership has had just one year to make changes, so patience is required. Maybe Barroway will inject immediate money into payroll and this turnaround will come quickly. Maybe the franchise can find that top-flight center it has been seeking since the days of Dale Hawerchuk and Jeremy Roenick. Maybe Smith can recapture his 2011-12 magic and carry the Coyotes again.
As the 2014-15 season dawns, we examine the top 10 questions facing the newly minted Arizona Coyotes at newly minted Gila River Arena.
The Coyotes hope Sam Gagner can be a major offensive force this season.
That depends on what sort of impact you want. In Joe Vitale, the Coyotes see a center who can fill the roles Boyd Gordon used to fill: winning faceoffs, shutting down opponents, playing a vital part on the penalty killing unit.
The Coyotes hope Sam Gagner can be a major offensive force when given a second lease on life away from the organizational train wreck that is the Edmonton Oilers. B.J. Crombeen is viewed as a more skilled replacement for Paul Bissonnette. The team sees vast potential in backup goalie Devan Dubnyk and hopes that a year working with Sean Burke will help. Justin Hodgman is an intriguing offensive prospect whose presence on the roster speaks as much to the camp he had as it does to the team's desperate need for offense.
For our part, we like Vitale's chances of blossoming in an expanded role. The jury is still out on Gagner, for whom the Coyotes still have not defined a role.
The margin for error is too razor thin to absorb the growing pains with Max Domi or Henrik Samuelsson.
That depends on how well this veteran-laden lineup fares. GM Don Maloney noted how none of the future forward stars in the system took advantage of their opportunity to win a roster spot in camp, but this lineup has as much to do with respect for key veterans and the exertion of coach Dave Tippett's will as it does with missed opportunities.
Captain Shane Doan, defenseman Keith Yandle, goalie Mike Smith and others don't want to wait around for a youth movement; they want to win now. Tippett is only programmed one way. If a younger player doesn't show he has mastered the intricacies of structure and playing without the puck and limiting mistakes, Tippett has little patience. His job is to field the lineup that gives the team the best chance to win.
In his more candid moments, Tippett will acknowledge this is a concern. The Coyotes lost two of their top five point-producers from last season (Radim Vrbata and Mike Ribeiro). They replaced them with Gagner and Vitale. There are plenty of character, two-way types in this forward group, but only Shane Doan has ever reached the 30-goal plateau, and that was six seasons ago.
Keith Yandle showed he can score, but the Coyotes will need others to step up.
The Coyotes will get production from their blue line where Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Keith Yandle and Michael Stone have all proven they can score, but to be a playoff team in the West, Mikkel Boedker, Martin Hanzal and Antoine Vermette must take another step up while Martin Erat and Gagner must regain their scoring touches.
The latter two may be the keys. If Boedker, Vermette and Hanzal stay true to form or even enjoy a slight increase in production, it probably won't be enough. But if Erat can get back to the 50-point seasons that characterized his years in Nashville, and if Gagner can find a role and add 40 to 50 points, the Coyotes could be alright.
That's a whole lot of ifs.
A perception exists that Tippett's teams play a suffocating defensive style that limits opponents chances like the L.A. Kings. The stats say otherwise. Last season, the Coyotes allowed 31 shots per game, which ranked 23rd in the NHL. The season before, they allowed 30.6 (21st). But those numbers were an improvement over the Western Conference finalist team in 2012, which allowed 31.6 per game.
The Coyotes allowed 31 shots per game last season, which ranked 23rd in the NHL.
There are two sides to limiting opponents' chances. The first is one that is gaining widespread acceptance now that analytics have made their way into every team's mode of evaluation. It's possession. If you have the puck, the other team can't take shots. The Coyotes have been in the top half of the league in possession the past few years, but they slipped from a top-10 team the past two years.
The other side of the limiting chances is having the personnel to do so. In the 2012 run to the Western Conference Final, the Coyotes had veteran defensemen Michal Rozsival, Adrian Aucoin, Derek Morris and Rusty Klesla, along with some offensive-minded forwards (Ray Whitney, Radim Vrbata) that gave the team some margin for error and an ability to freelance a bit more. This season, their margin for error is slimmer and they have nobody who fits the bill as a shutdown defenseman in their own end, which is why Maloney said recently that finding one is the team's top priority when adding to the roster.
If you want to win the Norris you have to put up points. Since the lockout-cancelled 2004-05 season, only one Norris winner (Zdeno Chara in 2008-09) has totaled fewer than 62 points. Oliver Ekman-Larsson certainly has the tools and at 23, he's starting to develop an air of supreme confidence befitting a superstar. He's a fluid and effortless skater, he has great stick skills and he has great vision. He should see even more opportunities to put up points, playing alongside Keith Yandle on the power play. If he had more forward talent in front of him, OEL might be a lock for 65-70 points, but he should at least improve on last season's career-high of 50.
Oliver Ekman-Larsson has the tools and is starting to develop an air of supreme confidence befitting a superstar.
Ask opposing executives about the Coyotes' chances in the derby to land Connor McDavid or Jack Eichel and they shake their heads. Arizona is too strong in goal and on the back end to fall to the depths of Carolina, Buffalo, Ottawa and others. There is too much veteran will here in the form of Shane Doan, Zbynek Michalek, Mike Smith and Keith Yandle to allow that sort of slip, and the coaching staff is too good.
Center Jack Eichel figures to be one of the top No. 2 picks in the 2015 NHL Draft.
The only way the Coyotes will sink that low is if they start selling off their veterans after a poor start and going with that long-expected youth movement. But here's the problem with that move. Even if you finish in the bottom two in the league, the odds of a team getting the top pick are not overwhelming. The NHL made some changes to its draft lottery format to prevent this sort of tanking.
Maybe the Coyotes could slip into the No. 2 spot and take Eichel, but that is a highly risky proposition and, as Maloney noted, "it requires a lot of pain and suffering to get there."
In that coming out party of a season, Smith posted a .930 save percentage and a 2.21 goals against average to rank third and seventh respectively in the NHL in those categories. He was even better in the postseason, posting numbers of .944 and 1.99. Until he replicates those stats, that season will be either be viewed as the standard or an anomaly.
Mike Smith once again will be counted on heavily this season.
Some of the burden clearly falls on Smith. Buried under the mental burden of nightly expectations that will exist again this season, he has allowed some soft goals the past two seasons that have hurt his team. When he finally looked to be regaining his old form late last season, he suffered a sprained MCL in a road game against the Rangers in March that shelved him and killed the Coyotes' playoff chances.
Not all of the fault for Smith's dip in numbers rests on his shoulders, however. Tippett believes the Coyotes can do a better job limiting opponents' scoring chances and protecting leads, but the Coyotes do not have a great history of limiting shots against and their blue line does not look equipped to do so unless GM Don Maloney acquires that physical defenseman Tippett covets on the left side to add a physical force and stability in Arizona's end.
A goalie's statistics are as much a reflection of the team in front of him as they are of his performance. For Smith to even approach his stats of two seasons ago, as much must change outside the crease as in it.
Know this. Doan was not happy with the lack of activity by management in the offseason. But his displeasure came more from a desire to win than anything else. Doan wants so desperately to win in the Valley. He's poured his heart and soul into this community and franchise so the rewards would be greater if the Coyotes climbed the mountain. But what if things go south this season and the Coyotes bring up a bunch of young players for development? Will Doan finally reward himself with a chance to compete for a Cup somewhere else? Will he approve a trade that could benefit his lifelong franchise? Will his family, which carries heavy weight in any decision, approve such a move? Will he listen to the advice of his former teammate, Ray Whitney? "It's worth it to get that taste just once," Whitney said. "Believe me, it's really worth it."
Shane Doan wants so desperately to win in Phoenix with the Coyotes.
So many questions are still unanswered because the sale has not been consummated. The Coyotes insist this move is all good, and a large infusion of cash that allows the current ownership to pay off a major loan while injecting more money into the club certainly looks good on paper.
Gila River Arena is the Coyotes' new home, and Andrew Barroway is expected to soon be the team's majority owner.
But will Barroway immediately inject more money into the team's payroll, allowing it some freedom to make trades now, or at the deadline? Will the Coyotes become players in free agency next summer when the big fish are normally caught? Will there be changes in the team's management staff, despite assurances there will not be? And what if the team is losing money in four years? Will Barroway, who has no history with or devotion to the Valley, exercise that out-clause and realize fans' worst fears (while satisfying some Canadians' sick pleasure)?
We may hear Barroway's answers to those questions as soon as Thursday when he and NHL commissioner Gary Bettman are scheduled to be in town for the season opener.
As Maloney noted at media day, a lot of things have to go right. First and foremost, Mike Smith has to be a top-10 goalie. The Coyotes are not built to withstand anything but very good to great goaltending.
The Coyotes last made the Stanley Cup Playoffs in 2012.
They also need their blue line to mature since Connor Murphy and Michael Stone will be logging significant minutes. They need a committee of scorers up front, they need to do a better job playing with the lead and then, even if all of that goes right, they may need some help in a conference where virtually every playoff team improved over last season by adding major pieces.
Are the playoffs realistic? Probably not, unless Barroway's arrival enacts immediate change. Are the playoffs possible with the current group? Sure. Chicago, Los Angeles, Anaheim, San Jose and St. Louis look like playoff locks, and Dallas added so much firepower that it's hard to imagine the Stars slipping. But Colorado, Minnesota, Vancouver and Nashville all have significant questions while Edmonton, Calgary and Winnipeg look like also-rans again. The Coyotes will probably be in the running for one of the final two spots late in the season.