This #$%&'s getting real

I know things are getting serious when my mom sends me a link ...

I wrote at some length about the A.L.'s second wild card yesterday, so won't belabor those points today. I will, for just a moment, focus specifically on the Royals.

Schedule-wise, there are two considerations: general strength of opponents, and home vs. road. Regarding the former, the Royals have a slight edge; regarding the latter, they've got 27 home games left, only 22 road games.

Of course it's more complicated than all that. But I think it's safe to say the Royals have a generally favorable schedule.

Other positive markers? Considering that nearly all of their hitters have underperformed this season, we might expect some stretch-run regression ... which usually is a negative when it comes up, but in this case wouldn't be. Billy Butler really should hit better.

Negatives? Essentially, the entire rotation has ERA's lower than the underlying statistics would suggest. Not by a lot. But some, and across the board. Although that might be partly attributable to a pretty good defense. The other issue is the utter lack of an acceptable first baseman; with Eric Hosmer out of action -- granted, he was playing poorly before he got hurt -- it's probably Raul Ibañez or nothing. Then again, Ibañez was actually real good just last season.

A little more positive regression, and there's no telling what this team might do. Right, Mom?