The Starting Five: NBA Draft edition
Some burning issues to ponder while making final preparations for Thursday's NBA Draft.
With all of the good-luck charms that accompany teams to the NBA Draft Lottery event and the celebration attached to the overall winner, scoring that first pick must be pretty special, right?
Well, that truly depends on who's available in a particular year and the wisdom of the team picking first to recognize which player really can play.
Over the past 55 years, the first selection in the draft has failed to reach All-Star status 15 times. That does seem like a pretty decent ratio of goodness, but also reminds us this first-guy status guarantees nothing.
Sometimes injuries are involved (hello, Greg Oden). In other situations, what worked for a prospect in college didn't translate into NBA stardom. Other unfulfilled expectations have been generated by other variables.
Anyway, in terms of numbers, center LaRue Martin (Portland Trail Blazers via Loyola of Chicago in 1972) checks in as the most disappointing, although Anthony Bennett (Cleveland Cavaliers via UNLV, 2013) has similar stats in his first two seasons.
We also see that 11 players selected first overall since 1960 have validated the pick by becoming the league Most Valuable Player. Six of those players were centers.
Over that 55-year span, 20 centers have been taken with the first pick. Four were point guards (five if you count Allen Iverson), with three of those arriving since 2008.
Karl-Anthony Towns (12) is expected to be among four first-round picks from Kentucky, which would make 19 for coach John Calipari since 2010.
With a quartet prospects expected to be chosen in Thursday's first round -- with the potential for a lottery sweep -- the University of Kentucky will have contributed 19 first-round picks to the NBA since 2010.
That, of course, was the first year Coach John Calipari was presiding at UK; he escorted five first-round prospects to the green room for that draft.
With Wildcats freshman Karl-Anthony Towns a heavy favorite to be the first player off the board, Calipari will have groomed three overall No. 1s (the others were John Wall and Anthony Davis) during his six seasons in Lexington. He also coached future No. 1 Derrick Rose while working at Memphis.
It should be noted that three more UK players -- Dakari Johnson and the Harrison twins -- are candidates to be chosen in Round 2; one analytics-based website lists Johnson among players projected to have the lowest rate of potential failure once they reach the NBA.
Although Calipari didn't dominate this year's high school recruiting cycle to past levels, he did sign Skal Labissiere, who's currently sitting at No. 1 in draftexpress.com's mock draft for 2016.
And he's said to be in contention for guard Jamal Murray, a Canadian who dominated at this year's Nike Hoop Summit before reclassifying as an incoming college freshman for 2015.
They might have been overlooked for possessing only one deadly skill that might translate into NBA success. Or their selection was postponed by contractual issues in another country. Or they didn't fit a certain positional profile.
Or maybe most of the teams in position to choose them weren't smart enough to see how talented or motivated they were.
All of those variables have enabled the draft's second round to become the staging area for some really strong careers.
The list of players who were skipped in the first round includes Marc Gasol, Goran Dragic, Draymond Green Manu Ginobili, Chandler Parsons, Khris Middleton, Paul Millsap, Monta Ellis and Isaiah Thomas.
The old school roll call offers Jeff Hornacek, Dennis Rodman, Gilbert Arenas, Tony Kukoc and Rashard Lewis.
Based on the current mock list offered by draftexpress.com, second-round suspects who could outplay their selection level include Cliff Alexander, Jordan Mickey, Dakari Johnson, Pat Connaughton, Christian Wood, Joseph Young and Norman Powell.
We apologize to all of the disrespected future stars we didn't list.
Latvian big man Kristaps Porzingis is the mystery man of this year's draft.
In officially reported gossip that shouldn't surprise anyone following the pre-draft process, the Minnesota Timberwolves have decided to use the first pick on Kentucky freshman Karl-Anthony Towns.
According to one post, KAT (and/or his representation) already has been informed of this decision. According to Towns (at least as of Monday) this report was inaccurate.
The next domino -- based on another report -- is Duke freshman center Jahlil Okafor on the cusp of being selected by the Los Angeles Lakers at No. 2. Although the Lakers have been working out guards D'Angelo Russell and Emmanuel Mudiay, this notion of skewing small was nothing but misdirection.
But further complicating everything is another story regarding the Lakers' interest in acquiring center DeMarcus Cousins in a three-way trade involving the Sacramento Kings and Orlando Magic. And that deal, it has been hypothesized, would involve that second overall pick.
By the way, the alleged love affair co-starring 2015 International Man of Mystery Kristaps Porzingis and the Philadelphia 76ers (they sit at No. 3) does not mean they aren't interested in Russell. And such chatter did not inspire Russell to spurn the Sixers for a pre-draft workout. Russell rescheduled with Philly and seemed thrilled after spending time with team officials.
The rest of the lottery lineup truly seems up for grabs, as well.
The New York Knicks, for example, reportedly are looking to move the fourth overall pick if Towns, Okafor and Russell are goners.
Point guard Eric Bledsoe has been the star of what feels like what began as a reckless rumor tagging the Phoenix Suns as a potential suitor in a deal for the Knicks' pick.
Although he's still expected to come off the board as early as second in Thursday's NBA Draft, Duke freshman center Jahlil Okafor has lost ground due to typical circumstances.
And what's typical, amateur critics focusing on what prospects can't do rather than pay tribute for what they do well.
Sure, Okafor struggles at the free-throw line, hasn't displayed a fit, trim physique and lacks elite explosiveness.
But at age 19, it would be foolish to dismiss his potential upgrades in free-throw success and conditioning. With a greater emphasis on improving strength and flexibility, Okafor also can improve his lateral mobility as a pick-and-roll defender. Much of that battle can be survived by taking better angles and being able to maintain a leverage-friendly stance.
On the positive spin, the kid simply has more low-post skill and awareness than any prospect we can think of the past several years. Despite the league-wide embrace of spacing and tactical, 3-point warfare, the ability to score close to the rim -- by any means -- still generates open shots for teammates.
We will point out that Duke had considerable operating room with Okafor roaming the lane during its championship run, leading to basket-attacking maneuvers and 3-point daggers from Justice Winslow, Tyus Jones and Quinn Cook.
And the notion that Okafor would slow down a transition-oriented squad loses considerable steam when you recall how Duke -- which was fourth in the nation in points per game -- was strong in creating early offense.