Surprises: Relief pitcher
I declare the 2011 "Closer Carousel" officially open for business.
Each and every season, a number of new closers emerge from the relative anonymity of middle relief to become fantasy heroes. I know that fans locked and loaded in the fantasy realm do their due diligence and recognize the value of pitchers in middle relief. I understand that diehard fans are well aware of the successes and failures of their favorite team’s bullpen.
On the larger scale, it’s easy to point to a starting pitcher’s record or a blown save by the closer. Just watch the highlight reels.
In the following analysis, I put the spotlight on a number of players currently installed in the closer role who may be undervalued by the other owners in your league. I’ll also review several middle relievers who may eventually get onboard the carousel.
Chris Perez, Cleveland
Perez was the heir apparent to Kerry Wood in Cleveland, and he did not look back once he received his shot to close. He produced mind-blowing numbers in his first full run with the Indians. Perez generated a smallish 1.71 ERA with 23 saves in 27 opportunities.
Perez offsets his dismal walk rate (walked 28 in 63 innings) by going on stretches during which he was virtually unhittable (allowed 40 hits). Some owners will be scared off by the insignia on his cap. Nobody’s expecting the Indians to blow through the AL Central. Still, go back and look at the leaders of the save category for the past few years. There are a number of players near the top of the list who pitched for terrible teams.
Jonathan Broxton, Los Angeles Dodgers
Broxton became the butt of many jokes during the second half of the 2010 season. He struggled on the mound, the Dodgers sank, and critics poked fun at his conditioning.
It was really a tale of two seasons for Broxton in 2010. He converted 13 of his first 15 save opportunities while registering a fantastic 1.16 ERA. Things started to shift in June and spiraled terribly out of control in the second half. He pitched to a 5.77 ERA from June 1 through the end of the season as his walk and hit rates soared.
New manager Don Mattingly has declared Broxton his closer entering camp, so he’ll have the opportunity to rebound behind a strong team. Remember, he was a top-five closer to start last season.
Craig Kimbrel, Atlanta
The 22-year-old hurler won four games in relief last season while helping to set things up for Billy Wagner. This spring, he slides into the hotseat for new manager Fredi Gonzalez.
Kimbrel pitched to a scintillating 0.44 ERA in 20 2/3 innings last season while demonstrating overwhelming power. He struck out 40 batters in his 20 2/3 innings pitched (had 17.4 strikeouts per nine IP). Of course, he also walked seven batters per nine innings pitched. If that rate doesn’t drop markedly, Kimbrel will quickly join the ranks of palpitation-inducing closers, such as Brad Lidge and Carlos Marmol (whose high walk rate is concerning as well).
Keep an eye on bullpen mate Jonny Venters. The 6-foot-3 lefty struck out 93 batters in 83 innings while registering a stellar 1.95 ERA. He’ll take the ball should Kimbrel’s control become a problem.
John Axford, Milwaukee
Axford contributed to all five standard pitching categories in 2010. He vultured eight wins out of the bullpen, in addition to the standard relief contributions. Axford converted 24-of-27 save opportunities with a strong 2.48 ERA and accompanying 1.19 WHIP. He definitely has closer make-up with his high-strikeout rate (11.8 per nine innings), and he surrendered just one home run in 58 innings pitched (allowed 6.5 hits per nine IP). Axford did walk 4.2 batters per nine innings, so there is some risk associated with his selection.
Still, it’s hard to argue with his other splits and the potential opportunities afforded him by the retooled Milwaukee squad.
Chris Sale, Chicago White Sox
In 21 games last season, Sale struck out 32 batters in 23 innings pitched while allowing 15 hits (permitted 5.9 hits per nine IP). The sky is the limit for this 6-foot-6 southpaw. He opens camp as the likely setup man to Matt Thornton, but everyone in the White Sox organization readily acknowledges his potential as a starter or closer.
Koji Uehara, Baltimore
Uehara was in line to claim the closer role before the Orioles signed Kevin Gregg. He’s a huge strikeout artist (11.3 strikeouts per nine IP) with a miniscule walk rate (11 strikeouts per walk in 2010).
I’m not going to discount him entirely. Gregg has long had control issues (has allowed 4.4 walks per nine innings in the past four years) and definitely raises the heart rates of fans (has a career 4.03 ERA and 1.33 WHIP). Early-season struggles could get Buck Schowalter to pull the plug and make a switch.
Evan Meek, Pittsburgh
Joel Hanrahan is expected to open the season as the closer, but don't close the door on Meek altogether. He pitched to a fantastic 2.14 ERA with a 1.05 WHIP for Pittsburgh last season.
Do you need more? You merely need to look at the hit rate. Meek allowed 53 hits in 80 innings last season (six hits per nine IP) while striking out 70 batters. If he doesn’t win the job this spring outright, Meek will get his chances in short order.
Matt Capps, Minnesota
Capps converted 42-of-48 save opportunities in 2010 between Washington and Minnesota. He's on the radar to start the season in the closer role once again and will serve as the second option to Joe Nathan once the veteran reliever is cleared for duty. Nathan is coming off elbow surgery, so that’s certainly no guarantee that he’s able to assume a full role immediately.
Capps is by no means overpowering, but he’s pitched effectively for years (except for his 2009 struggles). He’s worthy of a late-round selection as an insurance play.
Clay Hensley, Florida
Hensley produced a breakthrough season for the Marlins in 2010. He’d pitched as a starter and reliever in San Diego before spending the 2009 season in the minor leagues (he was released by Houston and signed with Florida). Hensley pitched to a fantastic 2.16 ERA while averaging one strikeout per inning. Most importantly, he allowed few hits (6.5 hits per nine IP).
Hensley has spoken openly of his desire to close in Florida. Leo Nunez enters spring training in the role, having saved 56-of-71 opportunities in the past two years. However, he also puts runners on base. That might just be the factor that opens up an opportunity for Hensley to swipe the role.
J.P. Howell, Tampa Bay
Howell missed the 2010 season after undergoing surgery on his left shoulder. He reportedly arrived in camp in tremendous shape and put on a ton of muscle. Howell isn’t expected to be ready for opening day, but told reporters that he’s optimistic that he’ll be ready to rejoin the bullpen by the end of April.
Howell was a workhorse out of the bullpen for Tampa Bay in 2008 and 2009. He appeared in 133 games and pitched to a composite 2.48 ERA with 171 strikeouts (156 innings pitched). Howell converted 17-of-25 save opportunities for the Rays. Once he’s cleared, don’t be surprised if he’s quickly in the mix for saves with Kyle Farnsworth.
Kerry Wood, Chicago Cubs
Who says you can’t go home? Wood returns to Chicago following stints in Cleveland and New York. He’s an important piece of Mike Quade’s bullpen, serving as the link to the electrifying, albeit maddening, Carlos Marmol. Marmol’s high walk rate and flair for the dramatic is what puts Wood into this column.
Wood pitched to a miniscule 0.69 ERA in 24 games for the Yankees last season after getting out of the train wreck that was Cleveland. Marmol’s control issues may prove taxing to Quade and open occasional opportunities for Wood. I shan’t think that the team demotes the new $20-million man altogether.