Starting 11: The Upsets Finally Arrive in 2013
Coming into this weekend the college football upsets this year had been few and far between.
Then, as generally happens, everything fell apart in a single weekend.
Georgia, Stanford, Oklahoma, and Michigan all lost.
A week before the release of the first BCS standings, no less.
Given that Florida State and Clemson play this weekend, many teams are starting to get the losses they need to creep up in the standings.
So let's dive into the Starting 11.
1. Alabama and Oregon have created a substantial gap between themselves and the rest of the country.
It's starting to feel, increasingly, like the entire 2013 season is an elaborate prelude to Oregon and Alabama in the BCS title game.
Sure, Alabama could lose to LSU -- by far the toughest remaining game on the Tide schedule -- but it's beginning to look like whoever emerges from the SEC East will not be as tough in the title game as we expected. So if the Tide can get past LSU they'll be 13-0. Meanwhile, the Ducks started the tough stretch of their schedule with a thorough road beating of Washington. UCLA and Stanford in back-to-back weekends will be good challenges soon, but I think the Ducks will win both games by ten or more. Oregon has to get past the Pac 12 title game as well, but the Ducks will play at home as a substantial favorite.
That doesn't mean either team can't be upset, just that it becomes more and more unlikely with each passing week.
Bama-Oregon in the title game should be the substantial favorite at this point.
2. The SEC East is wide open.
Florida and Missouri control the division right now if either team won out. Now the two teams meet in Columbia this weekend and both still have tough games remaining no matter what transpires in that contest.
Given that both teams are now on their second string quarterback and boast strong defenses, we should expect a low scoring, ugly game.
Mizzou could take complete control of the SEC East with back-to-back home wins over Florida and South Carolina. Win both and the Tigers would have 1.5 game leads over Florida, South Carolina, and Georgia with just four conference games remaining.
But how will Maty Mauk play?
Welcome to life as a Mizzou football fan, you get your first road top ten win since 1981 and in the process you lose your starting quarterback for 3-5 weeks.
As for Georgia, what a tough loss.
I feel bad for Aaron Murray, the team was so debilitated by offensive injury that he was like Jaime Lannister trying to fight with a sword after his right hand was chopped off.
3. Baylor survived on the road and now has the easiest path as the top undefeated non-Oregon and non-Alabama team.
I think Baylor would leap an undefeated Ohio State if the Bears finished 12-0.
The reason?
First, Baylor's better than Ohio State.
Second. the Big 12 is better than the Big Ten.
Third, right now Las Vegas would have Baylor installed as at least a touchdown favorite over Ohio State.
Sure, the road win at Kansas State wasn't a work of art, but Baylor is still a young team. That was the Bears first road win in the Big 12 since 2011. Now that they've proven they can do it on the road too, look out.
Will Baylor run the table?
I'm not sure, but the Bears will be favored in every game for the rest of the season. Wins over Iowa State and Kansas should have the Bears 7-0 when Oklahoma comes to town. (As I predicted before the season started, by the way). Then the final five games of the season give Baylor a chance to demonstrate how good they really are:
Oklahoma
neutral site against undefeated Texas Tech
at Oklahoma State
at TCU
Texas in Waco
Don't sleep on the Bears, an undefeated season is a very real possibility.
4. The Big Ten is just awful.
Ohio State is ranked in the top ten of the AP poll.
The only other ranked Big Ten team is Wisconsin at 25.
It's possible Ohio State could finish the regular season without a win over a single top 25 team.
Hello, Louisville part two.
5. How bad is Homeland season three?
It's even worse than the Big Ten.
The first season was extraordinary. The second season, while filled with glaring plot holes, at least provided a ton of exhilarating individual moments.
This season?
It's an unmitigated disaster of awfulness.
6. Johnny Manziel is the best reality television show star in the country.
Consider -- Alabama has given up just 68 points all season.
42 of them came to Manziel and A&M. The other five opponents on the Tide schedule have scored just 26 combined.
Want an even crazier stat? A&M scored more points in the second half than all of the Tide's other five opponents have scored this year.
So did anyone out there think Manziel and A&M weren't going to score at the end of the game when Johnny took over with two minutes remaining?
A&M should be 9-1 when the Aggies go on the road at LSU.
That game is going to be monumental.
7. LSU may well be the third best team in the country.
One thing you could always rely on at Tennessee -- by the end of the year John Chavis would have a young defense much improved.
The same has been true at LSU.
And last weekend LSU's young defense dominated Florida. Now, I know, Florida isn't a very good offense, but LSU strangled them and is getting better and better each week.
The Tigers, who still haven't had a bye yet this week, go on the road at Ole Miss. That's a bit of a tricky game, but I think LSU will take care of Ole Miss to get to 7-1. Then comes Furman so you can pencil in 8-1. Then LSU has a bye week, Alabama, a bye week, and Texas A&M.
If LSU beat both top ten teams, finished 11-1, and won the SEC title game over another top ten caliber opponent, are you really telling me 12-1 LSU -- with a three point road loss at Georgia -- wouldn't deserve to be ranked above 12-0 Baylor or 13-0 Ohio State?
The only two undefeated teams that I could see deserving to be ranked above LSU at that point would be Oregon (or UCLA if the Bruins shocked everyone and beat Stanford and Oregon in back-to-back weeks) and the Florida State or Clemson winner if that team finished 13-0.
Otherwise, LSU, even with one loss, would be the top team in the country.
8. The SEC now has 8 teams ranked in the AP top 25, a first for any conference.
That's a pretty extraordinary accomplishment.
Remember when some people questioned whether Texas A&M and Missouri were good additions to the league or would dilute the football brand?
The two teams are presently 11-1.
It's impossible for integration of these two teams to have gone any better at all for Mike Slive and the SEC.
9. Bob Stoops helped prove the Big 12 was "bottom heavy" by getting whipped by Mack Brown and Texas.
Is it worth mentioning that the tenth best team in the SEC, Ole Miss, beat the same Texas team that Oklahoma just lost to by 16 at a neutral site, by 21 in Austin? Or is that just rubbing it in?
I'd love for a reporter to mention the SEC's eight top 25 teams, Ole Miss's 21 point road win over Texas, and then ask, "So do you still think the SEC is top heavy?"
10. My national top ten based on all the games that have been played so far:
1. Oregon
2. Alabama
3. Clemson
4. LSU
5. Florida State
6. Baylor
7. Texas A&M
8. UCLA
9. Missouri
10. South Carolina
11. Here are my SEC rankings 1-14 based on the games that have been played thus far, with Ohio State ranked in the SEC for good measure:
1. Alabama
2. LSU
3. Texas A&M
4. Missouri
5. South Carolina
6. Ohio State
7. Georgia
8. Florida
9. Auburn
10. Ole Miss
How do we know the bloom is off the Ole Miss rose? Hugh Freeze had to be restrained from going after a fan after the loss to A&M.
Hugh Freeze!
11. Tennessee
12. Vanderbilt
13. Mississippi State
14. Arkansas
15. Kentucky