Start Orton, bench Dalton in Week 17
If you play in one of those dopey leagues that still has its championship in Week 17, do you still make calls on a rotary phone, watch football on a black-and-white television and get your weekly standings updates in the mail, like I used to in 1988? Even if that’s the case, our Position vs. Fantasy Defensive Points Allowed tool can still help you to a title.
As always, please remember that the players listed are mostly meant to be borderline guys, who need reasons for you to play or bench them. You won’t see recommendations to start guys like Drew Brees and Ray Rice, because you should always start Drew Brees and Ray Rice. Also, any league rankings mentioned reference fantasy ranking, and not real ones, unless otherwise noted.
Note: The fantasy points per game (FPPG) referenced below are from FOXSports.com standard leagues. Also, there are fewer “stay aways” this week than usual. With some players resting for the playoffs, it’s hard to rule out a lot of people.
Quarterbacks
Stay away: Andy Dalton, Bengals (vs. Raiders)
Dalton has slowed down lately, completing just 55 percent of his passes and averaging 164 yards over his last four games. You might have him benched already, but against the Ravens – who allow a league-low 10.9 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks – you’ll want to make sure you keep him there.
Also:
• Matt Moore and the Dolphins host a Jet team that needs to win to keep its playoff hopes alive. The Jets rank fifth with 13.8 FPPG allowed to opposing quarterbacks, and even though Moore has been surprisingly effective since taking over for the Dolphins earlier this season, this is a matchup that should be avoided.
• We’d like to offer a big-name signal caller to bench, but San Francisco’s Alex Smith is our boring and somewhat obvious third entry. The Rams aren’t very good, but they’ve allowed only 15.9 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks, and since they’re so bad against the run, we can expect the Niners to spend most of their time dominating on the ground with Frank Gore and Kendall Hunter.
Play, play, play: Kyle Orton, Chiefs (vs. Broncos)
Did you know that Orton has thrown for 299 and 300 yards in his two starts as a Chief? He’s only passed for one touchdown, but if he keeps throwing well, the TDs will come. It’s not like the Chiefs can run the ball effectively, right? This week, Orton faces a Bronco team that ranks 29th with 21 FPPG allowed to opposing quarterbacks. If you need a plug-and-play guy, Orton could fit the bill.
Also:
• Remember in September and October, when everyone wanted to start Ryan Fitzpatrick all the time, and the Bills signed him to a huge contract because of his hot start? Those were the days. Fitzpatrick has cooled off – and I mean REALLY cooled off, with eight touchdowns and 12 interceptions in his last eight games – to the point where he’s no more than an occasional matchup starter. Fortunately, the Bills are traveling to Foxboro to face a Patriots’ squad that ranks 30th in the league with 21.8 FPPG allowed to opposing quarterbacks. If you still own Fitz, you can consider him this week.
• Josh McCown? THAT Josh McCown? Yep. The Vikings are so horrendous against the pass (last in the league with 24.5 FPPG allowed to opposing quarterbacks) that even a third-stringer who was coaching high school football two months ago might put up some decent numbers. McCown had 242 passing yards and 38 rushing yards against the Packers on Christmas night, and that’s a solid fantasy effort.
Running Backs
Stay away: Cedric Benson, Bengals (vs. Ravens)
Let’s just say we’re not overly enthusiastic about the Bengals’ chances against the Ravens this week, even at home. Benson is a plodder who gained just 41 yards on 15 carries against Baltimore’s defense in Week 11. Yes, he scored twice, but the yards-per-carry number is a better gauge of how he played. The Ravens rank third in the league with 14.3 FPPG allowed to opposing running backs, and will make Benson’s life difficult again this Sunday.
Also:
• Brandon Jacobs has returned to his role as Ahmad Bradshaw’s second banana, and against a Dallas defense that ranks fifth with 15.4 FPPG allowed to opposing backs, that’s not helpful for Jacobs’ fantasy owners. You got a few good games from Jacobs while Bradshaw was out with an injury, but now it’s time to send the big guy back to the bench.
• Thinking about benching Steven Jackson against the very tough 49ers’ run defense? Don’t. Even though they held SJ39 to 19 yards in Week 13, he’s too much of a workhorse to bench. Start him, and cross your fingers.
Play, play, play: Kendall Hunter, 49ers (at Rams)
Hunter had 12 carries for 73 yards in a close win at Seattle, so the Niners clearly aren’t afraid to get him involved in the offense. This week, they face a Rams’ squad that ranks 30th with 22.7 FPPG allowed to opposing running backs. There should be room for both Hunter and Frank Gore to produce in this mismatch, and that makes Hunter an interesting flex option for you.
Also:
• Patriots rookie Stevan Ridley has carried 24 times for 129 yards in the last two games, and seems to have taken over for BenJarvus Green-Ellis as the leader of his team’s running back committee. Against a Bills’ squad that ranks 28th with 22.2 FPPG allowed to opposing running backs, Ridley could have another solid outing as the Pats look to clinch homefield advantage in the AFC.
• The Texans are locked into the AFC’s third playoff seed, so they have nothing to play for against a Titans’ team that ranks 24th against the run (19.7 FPPG to opposing running backs). With stud Arian Foster likely to see little to no action, Ben Tate could be in line for a strong game. It’s possible that Derrick Ward could see most of the carries with the Texans protecting both Foster and Tate, but I think Tate will get enough work to produce for his fantasy owners.
Wide Receivers
Stay away: Greg Little, Browns (vs. Steelers)
Little has caught 61 passes for 709 yards this season, and if you drafted him as a rookie sleeper, you probably got what you hoped for, at least in PPR leagues. Against a tough Steeler team (ranked first with 14 FPPG allowed to opposing wide receivers) that needs to win with a limited Ben Roethlisberger, expect Little to have a difficult time.
Also:
• On the other side of the ball in Cleveland, the Browns rank second against opposing wideouts (14.1 FPPG). Antonio Brown had five receptions for 151 yards and a score last time he faced the Browns, but much of that came on 79-yard pass with less than three minutes remaining. Until then, he was just having an OK game. I know, I know … that play happened, and it counted, but with Charlie Batch likely to take at least half the snaps on Sunday, Brown looks like a shaky play.
• Jeremy Maclin has nine receptions for 142 yards and a touchdown in three games since returning from an injury absence, and he’s been targeted only 15 times in those starts. That’s fewer than teammates DeSean Jackson (17) and Brent Celek (16). Against a Redskins team that ranks seventh with 17.5 FPPG allowed to opposing wide receivers, Maclin is just a so-so fantasy start.
Play, play, play: Roy Williams, Bears (at Vikings)
With Johnny Knox done for the season, Williams stepped up to catch six passes for 81 yards against the Packers in Week 16. Someone on that team besides Kahlil Bell had to get some receptions, right? As noted in the Josh McCown entry above, the Vikings’ defense is awful against the pass, ranking 31st with 26.3 FPPG allowed to opposing wide receivers. If you can’t get Williams, Dane Sanzenbacher (four receptions, 51 yards, seven targets vs. Green Bay) isn’t a bad option, either.
Also:
• Greg Jennings is out again, and Jordy Nelson should get some rest against the Lions with the Packers likely protect many starters in Week 17. Backup QB Matt Flynn will throw plenty against the Lions’ 21st-ranked defense (22.2 FPPG to opposing wide receivers), and the bet here is that James Jones will prove to be a stronger fantasy option than teammate Randall Cobb.
• Who’s Jarrett Dillard? The guy who’s finally given the Jaguars a halfway decent fantasy receiving option. Dillard has caught 12 passes over his last three games, and was targeted 10 times last week by QB Blaine Gabbert. Against the 24th-ranked Colts’ defense (23.1 FPPG to opposing wide receivers), he could have another solid game.
• This may sound obvious, but start Chargers WR Malcom Floyd. He’s caught 17 passes for 328 yards and three touchdowns since coming back from a four-game injury hiatus, and with Vincent Jackson’s status in doubt for the Week 17 matchup against the 29th-ranked Raiders’ defense (24.4 FPPG allowed to opposing wide receivers), Floyd could have a really big day.
• The Patriots are the league’s most permissive team against opposing wideouts, allowing 29.8 FPPG. We don’t need to tell you to start Buffalo’s Stevie Johnson, right?
Tight Ends
Stay away: Vernon Davis, 49ers (at Rams)
How about those Rams? Their dominant season continues, as they’ve allowed just 3.3 FPPG to opposing tight ends. That’s 33 percent fewer points than ANY OTHER TEAM has given up. You’re in the Rams’ crosshairs, Mr. Davis. They might stink in every other facet of football, but they’re going to make your life hell on Sunday.
Also:
• Ravens TE Ed Dickson has been a solid fantasy contributor this season, catching 53 passes for 508 yards and five touchdowns. However, in Week 17 against the Bengals, who rank eighth with 6.5 FPPG allowed to opposing tight ends, he’s not a good matchup play.
Play, play, play: Brent Celek, Eagles (vs. Redskins)
Celek has scored in two consecutive games, and really heated up after a slow start, catching 43 passes over nine outings after the Eagles’ bye week. Against a Redskins’ defense that ranks 29th with 9.1 FPPG allowed to opposing tight ends, he’s a solid fantasy starter.
Also:
• Dustin Keller was targeted <i>18 times</i> by Mark Sanchez in Week 16, and even though the Jets won’t throw the ball close to 59 times again, Keller is clearly Sanchez’s go-to option. The Miami defense is in the middle of the pack against opposing tight ends, giving up 7.5 FPPG, but only seven teams have allowed more yards, and … did we mentioned that Keller got targeted 18 times last week?