Sizing up this Cardinals-Giants NLCS
So we’re doing this television show Saturday – just in case you haven’t heard, we’re on the air at 8 ET on FOX Sports 1 and you’ve never seen anything like it before – and so I’ve been studying the Cardinals and the Giants all week. I’ve never studied a single pair of teams remotely like I’ve studied these two. Which allows me to tell you with absolute confidence that …
I don’t know if there’s any reason to favor one of these teams over the other in a best-of-seven series.
For the moment, though, let’s focus on just the opener in St. Louis tonight. I was shocked to discover that PECOTA gives the Cardinals a 65-percent chance of beating the Giants in Game 1. I would expect to see a percentage like that if the Cardinals were playing ... say, the Rockies or somebody.
But the San Francisco Giants?
The lefty-hitter-heavy San Francisco Giants? Wainwright’s historically been significantly less effective against left-handed hitters, and the Giants’ projected lineup for Game 1 features five left-handed hitters … plus switch-hitting Pablo Sandoval, who’s historically raked righties (while struggling mightily against southpaws). So this seems like a good match-up for the Giants, except for their two best hitters (Buster Posey and Hunter Pence) batting right-handed.
As for the flip side, the Cardinals seem just modestly well-equipped to handle Madison Bumgarner, with only four right-handed hitters in the lineup unless Peter Bourjos replaces Jon Jay in center field. And Bumgarner’s been ridiculously effective against left-handed hitters in his career, with seven strikeouts for every walk and a 564 OPS allowed.
I’m not saying PECOTA’s wrong about Game 1. I’m saying the output just doesn’t match the inputs I’m able to find.
Series-wise, we can wash, rinse, and repeat Game 1 when looking at the St. Louis starters because they don’t have any lefties in the rotation. But Bumgarner’s the only Giant lefty starter. Which doesn’t particularly help the Cardinals, since only Matts Carpenter and Adams figure to take advantage of right-handed pitching.
Like the Royals, the Cardinals are in the LCS despite finishing last in their league in home runs; they’re just the fourth and fifth teams to do this in LCS history. On the other hand, the Cardinals finished third in the league in line-drive percentage, so they’re just going up there poking at the ball. Hitting-wise, the Cardinals did fall off this season at almost every position – the only real exception was shortstop, where Jhonny Peralta replaced Pete Kozma – but their defense was excellent, as they finished third in the league in Ultimate Zone Rating and second in Defensive Runs Saved. St. Louis pitchers finished with the third-worst xFIP in the league, which suggests the fielders were doing more than their usual share.
Meanwhile, the Giants’ defense this season was just fair, right around league average. They don’t run the bases with any real élan, either. The Giants just do all the bigger things well enough, and of course that’s thanks largely to Posey and Pence, along with three fine starting pitchers and maybe the deepest bullpen in the league. It’s not a dominant bullpen, though; San Francisco’s relief corps ranked last in the league in strikeouts per nine, with the lowest BABiP allowed (.256) in the whole league. Are they good, or lucky?
Of course the answer is some of both, almost certainly.
But what concerns me more than Bruce Bochy’s bullpen is his bench. If Morse is healthy, it’s not useless. But in four postseason games, the Giants’ left fielders and pinch-hitters – Travis Ishikawa, Juan Perez, and Matt Duffy – are just 2 for 27, and that’s largely on merit. Like Matheny, Bochy just won’t have many, or perhaps any attractive options if he needs a hit in the late innings. This doesn’t seem a difference-maker because both managers are in the same boat. It does make their bullpen decisions a bit less stressful, and the games a bit less interesting for us.
Which leads me to wonder once again: Where have all the professional hitters gone?