SEC Capsules: Week 10 Predictions
Vanderbilt (4-4, 2-3 SEC ) at Kentucky (1-8, 0-6)
Where: Lexington, Ky., Commonwealth Stadium
When: Noon
The blitz: A quick glance across the national statistical rankings tells the story of Kentucky's rough season: 105th in rushing, 105th in passing, 113th in scoring, 108th pass efficiency defense, etc. It's been ugly. But perhaps the most relevant number for this game is 77. The Wildcats are allowing 177.81 yards per game on the ground (77th nationally), so Vanderbilt running back Zac Stacy must be licking his chops. Stacy demolished Kentucky last season – including one pile-driving touchdown run that epitomized the Wildcats' 2011 season – and could do it again. Barring his limited playing time against Massachusetts, he's been on a tear of late. Also, the Commodores have held teams to 15 points or fewer in three of their last four games, so best of luck scoring.
Pick: Vanderbilt, 24-10
Troy (4-4, 3-3 Sun Belt) at Tennessee (3-5, 0-5)
Where: Knoxville, Tenn., Neyland Stadium
When: Noon
The blitz: This is a classic "Tyler Bray in cruise control" scenario. Before last Saturday's meeting with South Carolina, Tennessee's junior quarterback had always struggled against top competition while torching lesser opponents. Now that he's crossed that barrier (at least, for now), Troy must look ripe for the picking. The Sun Belt's Trojans are one of the nation's worst at defending the pass, which does not bode well against a quarterback that has thrown for 20 touchdowns in 2012. This could get ugly, especially with Derek Dooley trying desperately to impress the Volunteer fan base.
Pick: Tennessee, 38-17
No. 16 Texas A&M (6-2, 3-2) at No. 15 Mississippi State (7-1, 3-1)
Where: Starkville, Miss., Davis Wade Stadium
When: Noon
The blitz: From the outside, this looks like one of the most evenly-matched games of the weekend. Sure, Johnny Manziel has torn up the college football world in his freshman campaign, but he has not impressed against top pass defenses. In three games versus top-50 pass defenses (Florida, Ole Miss and LSU), Manziel has thrown one touchdown and five interceptions. He's getting better every week, Mississippi State can force turnovers with the best of them (20, 13th nationally). The Bulldogs will enjoy a home field advantage and are looking to bounce back from an embarrassment in Tuscaloosa. If Tyler Russell, who has put together a strong season (1,742 yards, 15 touchdowns, two interceptions), can generate enough offense – and avoid Texas A&M defensive end Damontre Moore – his team will squeak by.
Pick: Mississippi State, 27-24
Missouri (4-4, 1-4) at No. 7 Florida (7-1, 6-1)
Where: Gainesville, Fla., Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
When: Noon
The blitz: Poor Mizzou. One week removed from its first SEC win, the Tigers are forced to travel to The Swamp to play an angry Florida team. The Gators will undoubtedly want to exact revenge for their 17-9 loss to Georgia, and Gary Pinkel's team might catch a beating. Florida's defense sounded off against the Bulldogs, forcing three first-half turnovers, and still rank fourth nationally in scoring defense (12.8 points allowed per game). James Franklin, who will get the start at quarterback for Missouri, will need to keep his head on a swivel to avoid letting the game get out of hand. Missouri is allowing more than 138 yards per game on the ground, so look for Will Muschamp to lean on Mike Gillisliee.
Pick: Florida, 31-13
Tulsa (7-1, 5-0 C-USA) at Arkansas (3-5, 2-3)
Where: Fayetteville, Ark., Donald W. Reyolds Razorbacks Stadium
When: 12:21 p.m.
The blitz: After letting one slip away in the closing seconds against Ole Miss – the Rebels broke a 27-27 tie with a game-winning field goal as time expired – John L. Smith's team (at least for one more week) will be relieved to find there's no SEC team on the Saturday slate. But don't get too comfortable. The Golden Hurricane can score points in bunches. With the ninth-ranked rushing offense, Tulsa averages 39.5 points per game. Of course, competing in Conference USA alleviates matters, but it's not like Arkansas brings a SEC-caliber defense to the table. The Razorbacks will lean on quarterback Tyler Wilson (16 touchdowns, seven interceptions) in what could turn into a too-close-for-comfort meeting.
Pick: Arkansas, 30-21
New Mexico State (1-7, 0-4 WAC) at Auburn (1-7, 0-6)
Where: Auburn, Ala., Jordan-Hare Stadium
When: 12:30 p.m.
The blitz: Wake the neighbors. Auburn has an opportunity to win a football game. Of course, nothing is a given with Gene Chizik and his 120th-ranked offense – yes, there are only 120 FBS teams. If ever there was an opportunity to work in a freshman quarterback it would be against a struggling New Mexico State team (1-7), which is why Jonathan Wallace will make his first career start Saturday. If it makes things any better, there's not much pressure on Wallace. Things couldn't get much worse for this offense. Expect a few more points and enough defense for the Tigers to avoid their eighth loss.
Pick: Auburn, 20-7
Ole Miss (5-3, 2-2) at No. 6 Georgia (7-1, 5-1)
Where: Athens, Ga., Sanford Stadium
When: 3:30 p.m.
The blitz: Mark Richt's squad will try to avoid the letdown game against Ole Miss, as the Bulldogs are just two league games away from a return trip to Atlanta for the SEC Championship. Partially a product of a soft schedule once more, Georgia proved it is not a soft team against then-SEC East frontrunner Florida. But bringing that level of intensity week in and week out is difficult, the Rebels are not the pushovers of yesteryear. New coach Hugh Freeze has his team believing a playing sound football – Ole Miss ranks 47th in both total offense and defense. Aaron Murray has feasted on non-ranked opponents in his career. A semi-porous Rebels secondary is a good way to get back on the right track.
Pick: Georgia, 35-17
No. 1 Alabama (8-0, 5-0) at No. 5 LSU (7-1, 3-1)
Where: Baton Rouge, La., Tiger Stadium
When: 8 p.m.
The blitz: Six of the past seven meetings between these two powerhouses have been decided by an average of six points per game. Of course, Alabama and LSU look to be on different levels this season. Alabama's offense is clicking with the ultra-efficient AJ McCarron spreading the wealth and the Crimson Tide's running game gashing folks as usual. The defense is pretty good, too (No. 1 scoring defense nationally). LSU will put its stock in its third-ranked defense and the effectiveness of Death Valley. The Tigers carry the country's longest home winning streak into the BCS Championship rematch, walking away unscathed in 22 consecutive games at Tiger Stadium. That will end Saturday. LSU will rise to the occasion, but Alabama's defense puts too much pressure on quarterback Zach Mettenberger, who has not proven himself capable against top competition this season.
Pick: Alabama, 24-13