RotoWire 2012 Yankees preview

Last season was a bit of an odd year for the Yankees. There were some big positives, such as Curtis Granderson's power surge (he finished second in the majors with 41 homers and easily led the majors in runs scored), the emergence of David Robertson as a dominant setup man, and unexpected sources of stability on the starting staff from Ivan Nova, Freddy Garcia and Bartolo Colon. Those positives were largely outweighed by the early-season disastrous performance and long DL stint from Phil Hughes (though he was significant better upon his return later in the year), another injury-plagued season from Alex Rodriguez, Tommy John surgery for Joba Chamberlain, and the never-ending drama that is A.J. Burnett.

After a loss to the Tigers in the ALDS, Yankees fans expected some big moves, but they probably weren't counting on seeing stud prospect Jesus Montero (along with back-end rotation candidate Hector Noesi) go to the Mariners in exchange for young power starter Michael Pineda and 19-year-old power arm Jose Campos. Montero's late-season audition, where he hit .328 with a .996 OPS in 18 games, showed the kind of impact bat he can be, but the Yankees weren't hurting for offense, so grabbing Pineda, along with signing Hiroki Kuroda to a one-year deal that same day, gives the Yankees the rotation depth they need to set them up as one of the favorites to make another deep playoff run.

Offseason Moves

Traded Jesus Montero and Hector Noesi to Seattle for Michael Pineda and Jose Campos.

Montero's departure leaves a hole at DH, which may be filled by one of the remaining older free agent hitters (Raul Ibanez, Hideki Matsui, Johnny Damon), but Yankees fans might prefer using the DH hole as a rotating place to keep Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter fresher, as Eduardo Nunez definitely showed in 2011 that he can handle a near full-time role. The Yankees are counting on Pineda to be a mainstay in their rotation for many years, and while his ERA increased in the second half, much of that was colored by three poor July starts. Pineda's strikeout rate actually improved in the second half, and his batting average against was still only .236. While moving from Safeco to Yankee Stadium will hurt his ERA a bit, it's hard not to like what Pineda brings to the table.

Signed Hiroki Kuroda to a one-year contract.

Kuroda had a solid 2011 for the Dodgers, tossing a career-best 202 innings with a 3.07 ERA, 7.17 K/9IP and 2.18 BB/9IP. He was just 13-16, but that mediocre record can be laid at the feet of the Dodgers' offense. Kuroda turned 37 this winter, but the expected age-related degradation in his skills has yet to manifest. Kuroda signed a one-year deal with the Yankees. His ERA and WHIP may decline in moving to the AL and going from a pitchers' park to a hitters' park, but he may also get a boost in win totals with the Yankees offense.

Signed Manny Delcarmen and Hideki Okajima to minor-league deals.

The Yankees raided the Red Sox's bullpen to grab a couple of guys who don't appear to be nearly the pitchers they were a few years ago. The left-handed Okajima is more likely to have an impact than Delcarmen is, as the Yankees went through 2011 with Boone Logan as the only southpaw in the bullpen.

Re-signed Andruw Jones to a one-year contact.

While Jones has fallen mightily from the Hall of Fame pace he was on early in his career, he still mashes lefties, to the tune of a .286/.384/.540 slash line in 126 at-bats in 2011. He was putrid against righties, however, so he's not likely to see much more than 200 or 250 at-bats. His power potential makes him worth a short-term pickup if injuries thrust him into the lineup for a week or two.

Re-signed Freddy Garcia to a one-year contact.

Garcia went 12-8 with a 3.62 ERA and a 1.343 WHIP. While Garcia doesn't have anywhere close to the velocity he once did, striking out just 96 batters in 2011, he's developed an off-speed arsenal that could line him up for similar success in 2012. The Yankees are clearly committed to keeping Garcia around, signing him to a $4.5 million contract in the offseason, but he does have competition from A.J. Burnett and Phil Hughes for the fifth starter role. If he does get a rotation slot, streaming him in road starts may be the best approach; although he wasn't a disaster at home (3.98 ERA, 1.410 WHIP), the results away from Yankee Stadium (3.27 ERA, 1.278 WHIP) are far superior.

Jorge Posada retired.

Posada was at the center of some clubhouse drama earlier in 2011 when he reportedly opted out of the lineup when he didn't like being asked to hit ninth. Posada had a big series against the Tigers in the ALDS, hitting .429 with an 1.150 OPS, but he clearly knew that it was time to retire. He leaves the Yankees after 15 full seasons, hitting .273 with 275 homers and 1,065 RBI.

Projected Lineup (vs. RH/LH)

1. Derek Jeter SS
2. Curtis Granderson CF
3. Robinson Cano 2B
4. Alex Rodriguez DH/3B
5. Mark Teixeira 1B
6. Nick Swisher RF
7. Russell Martin C/Andruw Jones DH
8. Brett Gardner LF/Russell Martin C
9. Eduardo Nunez 3B/Brett Gardner LF

The Yankees' lineup will vary based on how the DH situation shakes out. Given his recent health issues, it makes sense for Alex Rodriguez to get a good number of games at DH; when he does, Eduardo Nunez will play third, and hit lower in the lineup. When Derek Jeter DHs, Nunez should fill in at short as well. Brett Gardner can jump to the leadoff spot when Jeter takes a full day off; Gardner also may sit against some tough lefties, in which case Jones will play left field, and Nunez, Rodriguez, or Jeter may DH. Mark Teixeira's struggles against righties have led to his likely being dropped to the fifth slot in the lineup most days; he claims he's going to beat the overshifts he's seeing by introducing some bunts into his game, but we'll believe that when we see it.

Projected Rotation

1. CC Sabathia
2. Michael Pineda
3. Hiroki Kuroda
4. Ivan Nova
5. A.J. Burnett/Phil Hughes/Freddy Garcia

Sabathia shows no signs of slowing down, despite questions in the press about his conditioning. He's as solid a No. 1 starter as you're going to find. Pineda and Kuroda will slot in behind him, and while some regression from Nova is likely, he'd have to really fall apart to lose his rotation spot after going 16-4 in 2011. Both Burnett and Hughes are trade candidates, so they may be showcased at the beginning of the year. Only the Yankees could give $5 million to someone like Freddy Garcia then not guarantee him a rotation slot, but spring training will be very telling as to who will start the year with a regular role.

Closer: Mariano Rivera

The ageless wonder just kept it going in 2011, putting up yet another year with 40-plus saves, an ERA under 2.00, and a WHIP below 1.000. The Yankees do have a ready-made fill-in for Rivera with the emergence of David Robertson, so they may be more willing to put Rivera on the shelf for a few weeks if he experiences any aches and pains, but Rivera shows absolutely no signs of weakening, and there's no reason to think he can't duplicate his 2011 stats. Other than handcuffing him with Robertson in case this is the year Rivera finally shows his age, we have no hesitation about drafting him as one of the top closers out there.

Notes of import, fantasy and otherwise

Who will be the Yankees' primary DH?

The Yankees can be perfectly fine going into 2012 with a DH mix of Andruw Jones, Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, Mark Teixeira, and Nick Swisher. The Yankees never met a problem they didn't want to throw money at, though so it does seem likely that they will look either to sign an aging veteran of the Raul Ibanez or Johnny Damon variety, or trade A.J. Burnett (likely eating most of his contract) or Phil Hughes to a team that suffers a pitching injury.

Can Alex Rodriguez stay healthy?

Part of that answer ties into the DH question above. Eduardo Nunez definitely showed that he could handle more work, putting up 22 steals and 30 RBI in just 309 at-bats, so that gives the Yankees a window to give Rodriguez 30-40 games at DH, and perhaps 10-15 more complete days off. It seems unlikely that Rodriguez will approach 40 homers again, and his speed is all but gone, but if his playing time is managed well, he does have a shot to get back to the 30-35 home run range.

Who will be the fifth starter?

A.J. Burnett's contract likely guarantees that he'll get the first shot, but he'll be on a short leash, and if he gets off to an inconsistent start (or if the Yankees can find a trading partner), Garcia could get a shot, and could definitely match his 2012 performance. The wild card here is Hughes. Before the Pineda and Kuroda acquisitions, he seemed like a sure bet for a rotation slot, but he's been so successful in the bullpen in the past that it might make sense to put him back there. We won't have enough information until early in the season to see how this will shake out.

Strengths

A stacked offense led by Robinson Cano and Curtis Granderson, newfound depth in the starting rotation after the Pineda and Kuroda acquisitions, and a bottomless wallet enabling the Yankees to sign additional help or make trades as needed.

Weaknesses

Age and a fragile starting third baseman. Other than that, it's tough to find too many holes.

Rising: Eduardo Nunez - Most Yankees are either currently in their prime (Cano, Granderson, Sabathia) or in some part of their decline phase (Jeter, Rodriguez). With Jesus Montero gone, Nunez is the best candidate for a breakout, particularly if Rodriguez or Jeter misses significant time. Even if he does only play 80 or so games, he's got 25-steal potential, and is an interesting endgame play in fantasy drafts. It's in the Yankees' interest to get Nunez into the lineup more often as well, as he's the clear heir apparent to Jeter (unless they get impatient and trade him first).

Falling: Mark Teixeira - On the surface, Teixeira's 39 homers and 111 RBI seem impressive, but after following up his .256 batting average in 2010 with a .248 line in 2011, he has to be considered a liability in that category at this point. Teixeira never hit above .264 in any calendar month in 2011 and his power slumped as the season wore on, with just 14 of his 39 homers coming after June 30. Perhaps hitting coach Kevin Long can work some of the same magic with Teixeira as he has with teammate Curtis Granderson, but until we see the results of that, let someone else overpay for Teixeira's reputation.

Sleeper: David Robertson - Robertson was one of the most valuable setup men in the game in 2011, cementing himself as the next in line should Mariano Rivera ever falter or retire. Robertson's numbers speak for themselves: he struck out an incredible 100 batters in 66.2 innings and his ERA was a sparkling 1.08. He can get himself into trouble with walks occasionally, averaging 4.73 BB/9IP, but Robertson's fantastic power stuff can often get him out of tough spots. Even if he doesn't close many games, Robertson can serve as a valuable staff filler because of the strikeouts (he struck out more hitters than starter Ivan Nova), and he's a particularly great pick if you want to insure an investment in Rivera.

Supersleeper: Jorge Vazquez - With the full-time DH job still open, if the Yankees don't decide to use the lineup spot to give aging veterans some rest, Vazquez could step up with a big spring. The 29-year-old Vazquez hit .262 with 32 homers and 93 RBI at Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre in 2011. He spent nine seasons in the Mexican League before signing with the Yankees in 2009. Vazquez has an abysmal contact rate (he had 30 walks and 166 strikeouts in 2011), and it seems likely he'd be exposed at the major league level. Still, if he actually does get the DH job for at least part of the year for the Yankees, he's worth keeping an eye on, but don't overpay based on the power numbers.

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