Rookie Watch: Miller not All-Star, still best pitcher

By foxsports
Published

As the debate rages on whether a certain Dodgers rookie should be an All-Star after just 33 games, while other hitters headed to the Midsummer Classic have played 70-plus games, there’s an even bigger rookie snub on our hands.

While St. Louis' Shelby Miller has been the best pitcher of the 2013 rookie class, he will not be making the trip to New York. He was a borderline selection anyways, but thanks to the rule that every team have at least one All-Star — yes, even the Marlins and Astros — Miami rookie Jose Fernandez will carry the torch.

If the Dodgers' Yasiel Puig does not make the NL roster via MLB’s Final Vote or as ab injury replacement, Fernandez will be the lone rookie suiting up. He’s done well, but if any pitcher on this list deserves a nod, it’s Miller.

9-6 record, 2.80 ERA, 2.2 WAR

Reading a national writer’s midseason awards column, Miller was given the Rookie of the Year nod in the National League, but was referred to as a placeholder for Puig (i.e. Wade Miley giving way to Bryce Harper in 2012). That may very well be the case, but Miller is not a lock to fall off the map. Puig will need to earn it. 
After struggling through his first rough patch of the year, allowing 13 earned runs over his last four June starts, the 22-year-old righty got back on track this week with a quality start against the Angels. 
At 9-6, he has the best ERA, FIP and WAR among rookie starters with at least 50 innings pitched.

.409/.436/.667, 8 HR, 19 RBI, 2.1 WAR

If there is one crystal-clear factoid in Puig’s All-Star debate — a tug-of-war in which one side points out that he is indeed a national “star” (i.e. people want to see him perform) while others demand a larger sample size — it’s that ever since his June 3 debut, the 22-year-old has absolutely raked against National League pitching. 

In just 140 plate appearances, he is tied for the second-most homers among rookies. Only Atlanta catcher Evan Gattis has more with 14 in 183 plate appearances. 
For additional context on Puig's hot start: Only one other player in baseball has posted a higher WAR in 150 or fewer plate appearances — Dodgers teammate Hanley Ramirez, a former Rookie of the Year and MVP candidate. 
Oh yeah, and he’s not exactly slowing down, either. Puig has three multi-hit outings in seven July games.

5-5 record, 2.83 ERA, 1.8 WAR

The earlier note on the Miller-Fernandez dynamic was not meant to undermine the Marlins righty’s season, because he’s been one of the few bright spots at the bottom of the NL East standings. The battle for the second spot behind Miller wasn’t easy, though, especially with another Dodger, Hyun-Jin Ryu (more on him in a minute), posting similar numbers on a better team. 
But Fernandez, 20, has posted seven consecutive quality starts and his 1.67 ERA in June was tied with Pittsburgh’s Jeff Locke for the best mark among all qualified MLB pitchers.

.319/.369/.584, 7 HR, 24 RBI, 1.0 WAR

Trapped behind All-Star first baseman Allen Craig, Adams has yet to receive the playing time his numbers would seem to deserve, but he keeps making the most of his opportunities. (A similar situation is playing out in Atlanta with Gattis and Brian McCann.) Whether it’s a spot start or a pinch-hit opportunity, Adams has delivered for the Cards. 
Though it was tempting to slot players with more plate appearances under their belt here — Boston’s Jose Iglesias, San Diego’s Jedd Gyorko or the aforementioned (albeit injured) Gattis — Adams’ bat narrowly takes the cake, as his weighted runs created (wRC+ of 166, where 100 is the average) rank behind only Puig among all rookie hitters.

7-3 record, 2.82 ERA, 1.6 WAR

Ryu-Mania certainly was eclipsed by Puig-Mania, but not because the native South Korean’s numbers tapered off. After logging his seventh win this week, a 6 2/3-inning outing against the Giant, Ryu has now rattled off eight consecutive quality starts, cutting his ERA by more than half a run in the process. 
Only Fernandez and Miller have posted a higher WAR, though Atlanta’s Julio Teheran is nipping at his heels.