Reds IF outlook: Votto's health key to offensive success
Few baseball players have better eyes at the plate than Joey Votto. The Reds' first baseman knows what a strike is and isn't. He is plate discipline personified.
Votto's eyes are intact. How strong the distal quadriceps in the area of his left knee is, however, may be the biggest question of Cincinnati's spring training.
The Reds need Joey Votto to be Joey Votto if they are going to rebound from last season's 76-86 campaign. Votto missed 99 games last season. For four straight seasons he led the National League in on-base percentage. With Votto in the lineup the Reds were consistently in the upper one-third of the NL when it came to getting on base and in their overall slugging percentage during those four seasons.
There was a crippling effect on the Reds offense without Votto last season. Even when he was in the lineup it was clear to see that he wasn't the same. The power to the opposite field and into the gaps he has shown in the past wasn't there. The Reds' offensive numbers across the board were at or near the bottom of the league. They were 14th out of the 15 teams in the NL in on-base percentage (OBS) at .296 and on-base plus slugging (OPS) at .661. They had the second-fewest plate appearances in the NL.
It's a double-whammy when you aren't getting on base and you aren't hitting for power.
The margin for error is less when the opportunities to score are fewer and farther between.
Certainly that's not all because of Votto's absence but it's hard to replace a high-tier player for that long and not have consequences on the overall offense.
Through his first eight seasons in the majors Votto has produced a career batting average of .310, hit 163 home runs, driven in 553 runs and had an OPS of .950. Only 18 other players in the history of the majors have had those numbers in the first eight years of their careers.
General manager Walt Jocketty and manager Bryan Price have said throughout the offseason that they've gotten encouraging reports on Votto's rehab and that they expect him to be good to go when spring training camp opens. Votto and the rest of the position players are due to report to Goodyear, Ariz., on Feb. 23. The first full-squad workout is the next day.
That's when the question of Votto's health begins to be answered.
REDS SPRING TRAINING CATCHER/INFIELD OUTLOOK
40-man roster: Tucker Barnhart, Devin Mesoraco, Brayan Pena, Zack Cozart, Todd Frazier, Kristopher Negron, Brandon Phillips, Eugenio Suarez, Joey Votto.
Non-roster players in camp: Ramon Cabrera, Kyle Skipworth, Chad Wallach, Chris Dominguez, Ivan De Jesus Jr., Irving Falu, Josh Satin, Neftali Soto.
Projected starters: Devin Mesoraco (C), Joey Votto (1B), Brandon Phillips (2B), Zack Cozart (SS), Todd Frazier (3B)
Burning question: Where does Brandon Phillips hit in this lineup?
The Reds have asked Phillips to bat in various spots in the order throughout his career and he's been productive in no matter the role, be it as a leadoff hitter, No. 2 or 3 batter, clean up or further down the lineup. That's a testament to Phillips' versatility at the plate.
He hasn't hit in the bottom third of the order often (just 105 times has he started a game hitting in the No. 7 or 8 spot over his career, including his time with Cleveland before the Reds traded for him in 2006) but he very well could see a lot of time at No. 7 if the Reds can stay relatively healthy. Billy Hamilton is batting leadoff. Pencil in Votto at No. 2 or 3, with Frazier a good bet to be opposite of him. Then take your pick of the order with Mesoraco, Jay Bruce and Marlon Byrd. That takes you to the seventh spot.
For a player who has hit closer to the top of the lineup than the bottom, how Phillips takes to wherever Bryan Price puts him will be interesting to watch.
Prospect to watch: Alex Blandino
The second of last year's two first-round June draft picks will spend all spring training on the back fields in Goodyear. The Reds' minor league system isn't flush with infield prospects -- there are no infielders among Baseball America's top 10 prospects for the team -- but Blandino, 22, should change that in the coming years. He played a total of 63 games between Billings of the Pioneer League and Class-A Dayton hitting a combined .283/.367/.480 with eight home runs, 32 RBI and 40 runs scored. He has started his career at shortstop but should have the ability to play at third base and second base as well.
Under the radar: Devin Mesoraco
How in the world can a player who the franchise just committed $28 million over the next four seasons be under the radar? With all of the other question marks surrounding the Reds this upcoming season, Mesoraco shouldn't be one of them. He should be a constant, and if that happens he probably wouldn't be talked about much. He was an All-Star last season in his first full year as the No. 1 catcher and played at a consistently high level throughout.
Mesoraco's rapport and handling with the pitching staff improved as the season progressed and should only get better this year. That will be important as the Reds have to replace two starters in the rotation and attempt to mend a bullpen that outside of closer Aroldis Chapman is in rebuild mode.