Re-Drafting Fantasy Baseball's First Round
Already having fantasy draft day regrets? You probably aren't the only one. We may only be a few months into the season, but the first round of fantasy baseball drafts may look a little different if we had the chance to do it all over again.
How much would really change? First, let's set the categories.
For the sake of this exercise, we'll use 10-category, roto style scoring -- with a twist. Instead of wins, we'll use Quality Starts, which is a better indicator of how a pitcher is performing. Instead of batting average, we'll use on-base percentage, because we really like that one Brad Pitt movie.
So the categories are as follows:
R-HR-RBI-SB-OBP
QS-K-WHIP-ERA-SV
Let's take a look at how the first round should shake out today if we were able to draft for the rest of the season.
1st pick: Clayton Kershaw, LAD (3.91 NFBC ADP)
He's been even better than we could have imagined. For all the talk of Jake Arrieta's dominance, Kershaw has a lower ERA (1.48 to 1.72), lower WHIP (0.66 to 0.90) and more strikeouts (95 to 67). Kershaw leads every starting pitcher in every possible category, including quality starts, innings pitched, strikeouts, walks allowed (only 5!), ERA and WHIP (minimum of 50 IP). He's on pace to have the best season of his career, which is saying something. With most of the big bats not quite living up to the hype, Kershaw has been fantasy's best player by a large margin.
2nd pick: Mike Trout, LAA (1.62 NFBC ADP)
Surprised? Trout was awful to start the year, which is the main reason he's just 13th amongst all hitters in fantasy points right now. Things have changed in the month of May, however, as Trout has been on fire, hitting .344 with a 1.012 OPS and 4 SB. The returned speed is a particularly good sign, and it's hard to deny that Trout is getting more pitches to hit than Bryce Harper (48 walks) and Paul Goldschmidt (45 walks), which should give him an edge in the RBI category. Once again, he's the safest batter to go with.
3nd pick: Manny Machado, BAL (8.04 ADP)
Machado is one of this year's biggest climbers, as he was never really involved in the top pick discussion at the beginning of the season. The big reason he's here now? Shortstop eligibility. The scarcity at the position gives Machado a nice bump, and even without factoring that in, he's been fantasy's 7th best batter, belting 13 HR already. He hasn't stolen a base yet, and after stealing 20 last year, there's reason to think he'll pick it up a bit in that category.
4th pick: Jose Altuve, HOU (11.72 NFBC ADP)
Under these rules, Altuve has been fantasy's top scorer. That's aided in large part by his speed (15 SB), but his power has ticked up drastically (9 HR) as well. While you'd expect the power numbers to normalize a bit (his last three years his average HR total is actually 9), the OBP will remain high, as Altuve rarely strikes out. If we were convinced the power was here to stay, you could definitely make the argument that Altuve should be the first pick off the board. For now, it feels safer to slot him here.
5th pick: Bryce Harper, WAS (2.81 NFBC ADP)
He's still been very valuable in this particular scoring format (8th highest scorer). Harper's .245 batting average may be hurting you in regular leagues, but his league-leading 48 walks gives him a robust .426 OBP. Harper has been pressing lately (.177 average last 30 days), but he should adjust and continue to find ways to be productive. It's just a little easier to take Trout ahead of him now. Now is a great time to buy low on him.
6th pick: Nolan Arenado, COL (7.85 NFBC ADP)
There are few things I trust more in life than the Coors Field factor, and some of Colorado's big games at home have really helped his numbers. Arenado is the fifth ranked batter in fantasy stats so far this season, bolstered mainly by his 14 HR. After hitting 42 homers last year, we know the power numbers aren't a fluke. He's perfect mid-first round selection once again.
7th pick: Paul Goldschmidt, ARI (2.32 NFBC ADP)
Like Harper, he's being walked a ton (45 walks, 2nd in MLB) and it's driving down some of his other counting stats. Goldy has been hurt by A.J. Pollock's injury quite a bit, as he's getting less pitches to hit and his average (.240) has suffered because of it. He's still ranked here because his power (8 HR) and speed (5 SB) combo is tough to find, and his BABIP (.288) should climb quickly based on last year's number (.382). He's been more unlucky than bad, which makes him a great trade target.
8th pick: Mookie Betts, BOS (16.7 NFBC ADP)
If you bought into the hype, good for you. Betts has been fantasy's fourth best scorer so far this year, as playing in a great offense has really helped his counting stats quite a bit. The power (9 HR) and speed (8 SB) have both been on display, and a 30-30 season isn't out of the question. Even though he's not drawing walks, it's clear that Betts is a solid first-round pick who can help you in multiple categories. Buy in while you still can.
9th pick: Anthony Rizzo, CHC (9.96 NFBC ADP)
I'm tempted to have him higher, because of everything about his peripherals suggest his numbers are going to skyrocket soon. His .263 ISO is a career best number, and his .212 BABIP is tragically low. If he were stealing more bases (2 SB this season, 17 last year), he'd be ranked above Betts and Goldschmidt, at the least. If someone wants to bolt on his .234 batting average, take full advantage. He's still been the 9th best hitter in fantasy, despite the unluckiness so far.
10th pick: Josh Donaldson, TOR (5.78 NFBC ADP)
He's 21st amongst all batters in fantasy points, so he's been underperforming a bit so far. The slugging (.495) has come back more in line with his three-year average (.508) instead of last year's breakout season (.568) where he hit 41 homers. That being said, the batting average should climb (.256 BABIP right now) quite a bit the rest of the way, which will help his counting stats. Drop him a bit, but not too much.
11th pick: Miguel Cabrera, DET (13.1 NFBC ADP)
He's always been an elite OBP guy, which helps him in this format. The reason we're bumping him up to the first round has been the return of his power (11 HR this season, 18 last year) and the tear he's been on as of late (.422 avg, 7 HR in last 14 games). Cabrera is frightening when he gets hot, and there's no reason to think he can't have a return to his 2013 form.
12th pick: Yoenis Cespedes, NYM (43.5 NFBC ADP)
Rounding out the first round is the biggest climber and perhaps even the NL favorite for MVP right now. Cespedes leads the league with 15 homers, and while it's unlikely he can keep hitting at this pace (.660 slugging!), he's going to be ranked near the top of most leagues in counting stats due to his ability to play every day.
Out of the first round: Carlos Correa (6.8 ADP), Giancarlo Stanton (10.1 ADP) and Kris Bryant (12.8 ADP).
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