Rankings preview: Third Base
The third base position no longer has the depth that we saw several years ago.
You have five elite players at the top of the heap, a few players with injury questions, and those who provide two- or three-category production.
It’s one of the positions that force owners to review the eligibility rules of their league. Does a player need to play one game this past year? Ten? Are the projected depth charts enough to qualify a player at a position?
For the purpose of this piece, I’ve excluded Kevin Youkilis and Chone Figgins. Both players will occupy the position in 2011, but aren’t pre-qualified for the spot coming into draft season.
32. Brandon Inge, Detroit
Inge remains a fantastic power options for the Tigers in an improved lineup. He hit 46 extra-base hits (including 13 home runs) with 70 RBI last season, his fifth season with at least 70 RBI in the past six years. Inge has averaged 22.9 doubles in the past seven years.
31. Melvin Mora, Arizona
Mora no longer ranks as a fantasy starter, but he’s serviceable as a spot starter or injury replacement. He batted .285 with 24 extra-base hits (seven home runs) and 45 RBI in 113 games. Mora is the veteran in a young Arizona lineup. Mora hit 14 or more home runs in seven consecutive seasons from 2002-08.
30. Dayan Viciedo, Chicago White Sox
Viciedo dominated in 86 games for Triple-A Charlotte last season and performed well in his introduction to Chicago. He batted .274 with 35 extra-base hits and 47 RBI in the minor leagues. The biggest hiccup in his stat line is that Viciedo struck out seven times per walk. He then struck out 25 times in 104 major league at-bats (with two walks).
Look to the positive. Viciedo hit five home runs with 13 RBI, 32 hits and a .308 batting average. The power potential is there once he acclimates to the power haven that is U.S. Cellular Field.
29. Albert Callaspo, Los Angeles Angels
Callaspo joined the Angels last season and posted pedestrian numbers (with two home runs, 13 RBI and a .249 batting average). He demonstrated strong gap power in Kansas City with 41 doubles in 2009 and 19 doubles in 88 games before shifting to Los Angeles.
The versatile switch-hitter (has third-base and second-base eligibility) is a career .278 batter who rarely strikes out (with 42 strikeouts in 562 at-bats in 2010).
28. Edwin Encarnacion, Toronto
Encarnacion is another two-category producer at the position. He hits for power with little else (.258 career batting average). He owns a streak of five consecutive seasons with 13 or more home runs despite appearing in 117 or fewer games in three of those five campaigns. He averaged 61.2 RBI in this five-year period.
27. Ty Wigginton, Colorado
Wigginton enters the season as a utility infielder in Colorado. He’s a strong power producer whose versatility has long served fantasy owners well in spots (first-, second- and third-base eligibility). Wigginton hit 22 or more home runs in four of the past five years while averaging 70 RBI (with 41 RBI in 122 games for the 2009 Orioles).
26. Danny Valencia, Minnesota
Valencia hit well in his rookie season for the always pesky Twins. He batted .311 with 26 extra-base hits (including seven home runs) and 40 RBI in 299 at-bats. Valencia demonstrated solid pop and great gap power in the minor leagues. He hit 14 home runs with 38 doubles between Double-A and Triple-A in 2009.
25. Kevin Kouzmanoff, Oakland
Kouzmanoff doesn’t overwhelm you statistically, but he’s been consistent. He’s played in two of the league’s most difficult parks during his four full major league seasons. Kouzmanoff has hit 30 or more doubles while averaging 18.8 home runs and 79.3 RBI in each of his four seasons. He’s a career .258 batter.
24. Placido Polanco, Philadelphia
Polanco remains a solid batting average contributor in his 14th major league season. He’s batted .285 or batter in 11 consecutive seasons and owns a strong .303 career batting average. Polanco doesn’t offer much in the power categories. He’s hit double-digit home runs in only three seasons and has never driven in more than 72 runs.
Polanco will score runs in the loaded Philadelphia lineup and hit for a high average. Obviously, he holds more value in leagues in which he has second-base eligibility.
23. David Freese, St. Louis
Freese opened the season with the big squad and appeared in 70 games before two ankle surgeries ended his season. He batted .296 with 17 extra-base hits and 36 RBI in 240 at-bats.
A look into Freese’s minor-league numbers shows that the power potential is most certainly there. Freese batted .304 with 83 extra-base hits (including 36 home runs) and 128 RBI in two Triple-A seasons.
22. Mike Moustakas, Kansas City
Those holding onto Moustakas in keeper and dynasty leagues are sitting on a lottery ticket. The 22-year-old former second overall selection in the 2007 Major League Baseball Draft wore out opposing Double-A and Triple-A pitchers last season. He batted .322 with 77 extra-base hits (36 home runs) and 124 RBI. The sweet-swinging hitter’s bat is ready for prime time. I can’t wait to watch him this spring.
21. Chase Headley, San Diego
Headley has become a solid contributor to the San Diego lineup, although the fantasy dominance that owners anticipated has yet to transpire. He hit 11 home runs with 58 RBI and 77 runs scored in 2010. The most interesting piece of Headley’s stat line to date is that he’s swiped 27 bases in the past two years (with 17 steals in 2010).
Headley is a .264 batter who strikes out with regularity (with more than 130 in back-to-back years). Playing in PETCO Park, the likelihood of translating his sizable doubles count (with 60 in two years) into home runs doesn’t seem likely.
20. Casey Blake, Los Angeles Dodgers
Blake was one of many Dodgers batters whose numbers dipped in 2010. His batting average dropped 32 points, and his RBI total dropped 15 runs. Blake hit 17 home runs with 28 doubles to essentially match his 2009 totals (of 18 home runs and 25 doubles), but he scored 28 fewer runs.
Take the long-term look at him. Blake has hit 17 or more home runs while averaging 72.9 RBI in eight consecutive seasons. He’s a career .264 batter, so you’re not anticipating much of a rebound in that category. Blake will offer solid power numbers and better three-category production, as the Dodgers collectively rebound from disappointing 2010 campaigns.
19. Chipper Jones, Atlanta
Jones’ health issues are well-documented. He continues to demonstrate solid pop (one extra-base hit per 10 at-bats in 2010), but his batting average has suffered markedly in the past two years (with .264 and .265). Jones had hit 18 or more home runs in 15 consecutive seasons prior to last year’s injury-shortened campaign.
Jones, 37, has begun taking swings as he recovers from surgery to repair his left ACL, and is pacing to be ready for opening day. If Jones is sound, he’ll rebound to hit 15-20 home runs with 75-85 RBI in the youthful Atlanta offense. I don’t anticipate a huge rebound in the batting average column, but he’ll offer solid production in the corner infield (CI) slot.
18. Jorge Cantu, free agent
Cantu appeared in 127 games between Florida and Texas, and remains without a contract as of this writing (several suitors are rumored to be interested in his services for 2011). He posted two fantastic seasons in Florida (totaling 45 home runs and 195 RBI) before regressing somewhat in the first half of the 2010 season.
Cantu obviously has tremendous gap power given his 138 extra-base hits that he compiled in the 2008 and 2009 seasons in a pitchers’ park. The right fit will make him a definite sleeper candidate for those who draft early.
17. Scott Rolen, Cincinnati
Rolen remains a solid power producer when healthy. He hit 20 home runs in 2010, his 10th such season in his major league career. Rolen batted .285 last season (his career mark is .284) and has driven in at least 83 runs in nine campaigns.
The biggest issue facing Rolen is obviously his health. He hits at the heart of a potent lineup in a fantastic home-run park. Unfortunately, he’s also missed at least 29 games in four consecutive seasons (he last played in more than 150 games in 2003).
16. Jose Lopez, Colorado
Lopez regressed at the plate in 2010 as part of a terrible Seattle offense. His home run total dropped by 15, he drove in 38 fewer run and his batting average fell by 33 points. It was the second straight season in which Lopez’s batting average dropped precipitously (he batted .297 in 2008).
The move to Colorado, even though this isn’t the Coors Field of years past, will be advantageous for Lopez. At a minimum, he’ll be hitting in a better lineup and better ball park (he’d hit 17 and 25 home runs in the 2008 and 2009 seasons, respectively). Lopez swings at a ton of bad balls, so his batting average upside is limited, but a return to the .255-.265 range with a boost in power (and his multi-positional eligibility) makes him a sleeper prospect.
15. Martin Prado, Atlanta
Prado posted a fantastic follow-up to his 2009 breakthrough season. He increased his home run total from 11 to 15, drove in 17 additional runs and scored 36 additional runs, while matching his .307 batting average.
Prado’s versatility is also appealing to fantasy owners. He split time between second base and third base last season. Prado moves to left field to accommodate the arrival of Dan Uggla in Atlanta.
14. Mark Reynolds, Baltimore
Reynolds is going to do two things in Baltimore. He’s going to hit a bunch of home runs that get covered more because of his opponents in the AL East, and he’s going to strike out a ton (with 638 strikeouts in the past three years). Reynolds averaged 34.7 home runs and 94.7 RBI in his three full seasons in Arizona.
He batted .198 last season while striking out in 42.3 percent of his at-bats. The strikeout rate isn’t going to change. The batting average should bounce back to at least a passable level in a Baltimore that may intrigue only me. He’s a lifetime .242 batter, who has stolen 42 bases in the past three years.
13. Pablo Sandoval, San Francisco
“Kung-Fu Panda” failed to replicate his 2009 breakthrough brilliance for the champion Giants last year. His home run total dropped nearly in half while his RBI dipped by 27. Most problematic was the fact that Sandoval’s batting average dropped by 62 points with no change in his contact rate. As such, we can reasonably expect his numbers to return in line with his .305 career batting average and for his power numbers to improve.
I would remiss if I failed to acknowledge that Sandoval took his conditioning seriously and will report to spring training in the best shape of his career. His numbers didn’t change markedly in the second half, but reporting well-conditioned certainly can’t hurt.
12. Chris Johnson, Houston
Johnson appeared in 94 games for the Astros and demonstrated tremendous power with 35 extra-base hits and 52 RBI. He posted an impressive .420 BABIP and batted .308 despite striking out in 26.7 percent of his at-bats.
That’s the lone knock on his game heading into 2011. Johnson is a free-swinger who rarely walks (with six strikeouts per walk in 2010). Take your Dunn-like power production and anticipate a regression in his batting average because of the low-contact rate.
11. Ian Stewart, Colorado
Stewart posted solid power numbers in 2010, though his production did drop from his first full season (47 extra-base hits to 34). He missed significant time down the stretch with a rib injury. Stewart improved his contact rate (though his walk rate fell) and boosted his batting average by 28 points. It’s not the homer-happy Coors Field of years past, but Stewart hits 20-25 home runs with 70-80 RBI in a full season alongside Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki.
10. Jose Bautista, Toronto
Bautista experienced a completely unexpected breakthrough season in 2010. We can point to his strong close to 2009, when he hit 10 home runs in his final 109 at-bats, as some type of advance warning. We’d be grasping at straws.
Bautista had spent six years in the major leagues prior to his 54-home run, 124-RBI effort in 2010. He’d never hit more than 16 home runs in a season and had never driven in more than 63 runs. I don’t anticipate that Bautista disappears as quickly as he came onto the scene. However, he does represent a very difficult proposition for fantasy owners. I’ll put him on the board for 25-30 home runs and 85 RBI with a batting average near .250 (.244 lifetime batting average).
9. Aramis Ramirez, Chicago Cubs
Ramirez remains one of the best power brokers at the position when healthy. He’s hit 25 or more home runs with at least 83 RBI in six of the past seven seasons. However, Ramirez has appeared in 132 games or fewer in four of the past six seasons.
His .241 batting average in 2010 was certainly out of character. Ramirez had batted .271 or better in eight consecutive seasons and owns a solid .282 career batting average.
8. Casey McGehee, Milwaukee
McGehee broke through with a fantastic 116-game introduction to Milwaukee in 2009. He became a full-fledged fantasy hero in 2010 with 23 home runs, 38 doubles and 104 RBI with a strong .285 batting average as the team’s everyday third baseman.
Fantasy owners lament the loss of his second-base eligibility this season. However, it’s hard to deny his four-category production (he scored 70 runs last year) and gap power in a strong lineup. The Brewers ranked 12th in runs scored last season and return all the principals.
7. Michael Young, Texas
Young represents a consistent option for fantasy owners that eschew the selection of one of the top options at the position. He’s a lifetime .300 batter who has hit .284 or better in eight consecutive seasons (including six seasons at .306 or better).
In the past two seasons, Young has ripped 43 home runs and 72 doubles with 159 RBI (including 91 last season). Young has averaged 89.7 RBI in the past seven years. This lineup is loaded and ready for another run. He’ll slide to the everyday DH role with Adrian Beltre onboard to play third base.
6. Pedro Alvarez, Pittsburgh
The Pirates’ first-round selection in 2008 made a huge splash after getting his callup in mid-June. Alvarez struck out in 34.3 percent of his at-bats last season. Put that aside for a second. Alvarez produced a fantastic .390 BABIP with 38 extra-base hits (including 16 home runs) and 64 RBI. The perennially rebuilding Pirates have a number of interesting young players to watch this season. They may not win a ton of games, but this lineup should score some runs for the fantasy world. The 6-foot-3 lefty will be in the middle of the action.
5. Adrian Beltre, Texas
I understand that some owners still hold a grudge with Beltre for never recapturing the magic of his final season in Los Angeles. However, let’s take the long-term view of Beltre’s career. With the exception of his injury-shortened 2009 season, Beltre has offered fantasy owners steady production since 1999. He’s hit 19 or more home runs in nine of the past 11 seasons while averaging 82.2 RBI (including two 100-RBI campaigns) during the past 12 seasons.
I certainly don’t anticipate a repeat of his .321 batting average from 2010 (he’s a .275 lifetime hitter), nor will Beltre necessarily steal a bunch of bases. He won’t need to in this lineup. Beltre was brought in to mash in the heart of a loaded lineup.
4. Ryan Zimmerman, Washington
In four complete major league seasons, Zimmerman has averaged 25.5 home runs, 110.8 RBI and 107.3 runs scored with a .287 batting average. He doesn’t run anymore, having produced just 11 stolen bases in the past four years following his breakthrough 2006 season in which he stole 11 bases.
Zimmerman will have more support in the lineup this season. Washington added Jayson Werth, Adam LaRoche and Rick Ankiel to jumpstart the offense.
3. Alex Rodriguez, New York Yankees
There was no debate about Evan Longoria assuming the top spot here. I did spend considerable time pondering Rodriguez and the meaning of his 2010 season against fellow New Yorker David Wright. Are Rodriguez’s power numbers in decline going forward? Was the dip in stolen bases attributed solely to the hip or will he run sporadically in 2011?
I ultimately settled on Wright in the No. 2 slot, anticipating another power-laden season (he hit 30 home runs in 137 games last season) and a moderate uptick in his stolen-base total. Rodriguez has hit 30 or more home runs and driven in at least 100 runs in 13 straight seasons. He owns a career .303 batting average and continues to hit in a loaded lineup. I don’t anticipate a rebound to his 2007 heights, but I’m not looking for the floor to drop out, either.
2. David Wright, New York Mets
Wright bounced back brilliantly from a difficult, power-sapped 2009 season. He hit only 10 home runs in 2009, but slammed 29 home runs in posting his fifth 100-RBI campaign last year. In six complete seasons in New York, Wright has averaged 25.8 home runs, 40.2 doubles, 104 RBI and 22 stolen bases, and owns a lifetime .305 batting average. Put frankly, he’s a beast, and we have to imagine that he receives more help from Jason Bay and Carlos Beltran.
1. Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay
Longoria takes the top spot this season while leading the retooled Tampa offense. In the past two years, Longoria has established himself as a five-category contributor. He amassed 150 extra-base hits (including 55 home runs) with 90 doubles, 217 RBI, 24 stolen bases, 196 runs scored and a strong .288 batting average.
I’m curious to see how well Johnny Damon and Manny Ramirez contribute and the effect of Carl Crawford’s departure. Whatever goes on around him, Longoria just mashes.