Projections: RBI

By foxsports
Published

We talked early and often about the rise of pitching in 2010.

From the glorious start by Ubaldo Jimenez to the feats of the young Oakland rotation, the attention of the media shifted away from the longball heroics of years past. That isn’t to say that Carlos Gonzalez’s dominance went unnoticed or that the veritable run-scoring conga lines of the Yankees or Rangers didn’t enthrall fans and fantasy owners.

But the numbers don’t lie. Run production was down 5.2 percent in 2010 from 2009 and 6 percent from 2008. Will the batters regain their edge?

Let’s break down those leading the batters’ quest for revenge. I’ll get things started in St. Louis, where the moving truck is expected any minute.

1. Albert Pujols, 1B, St. Louis

Analysis: Do I need to belabor the point and make a huge statement about Pujols? He’s driven in at least 103 runs in each of his 10 major league campaigns. In fact, he’s averaged 123 RBI during his career while posting superhuman numbers.

Skip Schumaker, who is a career .291 batter (.349 OBP), is slated to appear in the leadoff role. He’ll start the line ahead of Pujols, with Matt Holliday serving as protection from the cleanup slot. The contract talks are still something to watch, but that’s not going to impact his brilliance in the batter’s box.

2010 RBI Total: 118
2011 RBI Projection: 133

2. Ryan Howard, 1B, Philadelphia

Analysis: Howard missed 19 games during the 2010 season and played with an ankle injury down the stretch. He still drove in 108 runs, his fifth consecutive 100-RBI season. Howard had driven in at least 136 runs in four consecutive seasons prior to his injury-impacted 2010.

I am moderately concerned about his ankle and the health of his tag-team partner, Chase Utley. The loss of Jayson Werth does leave Howard with less protection. Still, I can’t envision a huge decline in his production.

2010 RBI Total: 108
2011 RBI Projection: 131

3. Prince Fielder, 1B, Milwaukee

Analysis: Fielder ranked among the “flops” of the 2010 season. His batting average dropped 38 points, and he drove in 58 fewer runs than he did in 2009. Fielder was the victim of a good chunk of bad luck last season, as his contact rate didn’t change.

He’d driven in 119, 102 and 141 runs in the three years prior to last year’s downturn. Fielder is motivated by the prospects of a new contract and will operate in a strong lineup. Rickie Weeks’ health helps determine Fielder’s ceiling.

2010 RBI Total: 83
2011 RBI Projection: 128

4. Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, Boston


































Analysis: Gonzalez was, at times, literally a one-man wrecking crew in San Diego. He drove in at least 99 runs in four consecutive seasons despite a decided lack of support in the lineup. Gonzalez jumps to a much better lineup and a fantastic home ballpark in Boston.

He teams with Carl Crawford and David Ortiz to form a potent heart of the lineup and to pick up Jacoby Ellsbury and Dustin Pedroia at the top of the order. Gonzalez drove in a career-high 119 runs in 2008. He may shatter that number upon arriving in Boston.

2010 RBI Total: 101
2011 RBI Projection: 126




5. Miguel Cabrera, 1B, Detroit

Analysis: Cabrera’s off-field issues are certainly weighing on the minds of fantasy owners as we dive head-first into the heart of draft season. However, it’s impossible to ignore his yearly brilliance on the diamond. Since becoming an everyday player in 2004, Cabrera has ripped off seven consecutive 100-RBI seasons, averaging 116.7 RBI per season.

Austin Jackson shone as a rookie with a .293 batting average (he does need to walk more) and will be challenged to set the table. Cabrera does have been protection behind him for 2011 in the form of Victor Martinez. Watch the court case play out. I don’t suspect that it impacts his 2011 output.

2010 RBI Total: 126
2011 RBI Projection: 120

6. Justin Morneau, 1B, Minnesota

Analysis: Morneau was pacing to potentially crush his 2009 totals, but he sustained a concussion and missed the second half of the 2010 season. He’d driven in at least 100 runs in four consecutive seasons prior to last year’s injury-shortened campaign (he drove in 56 runs in 81 games).

While Target Field is not a hitter-friendly home yard (removing the trees will be a help), Morneau still batted .316 and drove in 25 runs in 43 games. Morneau returns to team with Joe Mauer and budding star Delmon Young (Young drove in 112 runs in 2010). Even if the home runs don’t fly out, Morneau will spray doubles into the gap with great regularity.

2010 RBI Total: 56
2011 RBI Projection: 118

7. Alex Rodriguez, 3B, New York Yankees

Analysis: We talk about the power decline and cite Rodriguez’s shrinking OPS. He still ranked second in Major League Baseball with 125 RBI last season, the sixth-highest output of his career. In fact, Rodriguez has driven in at least 100 runs in 13 consecutive seasons (14 of 15). Rodriguez may not mash 50, or even 40, home runs again. He’s still going to have ample opportunities to drive in Derek Jeter, Curtis Granderson and Mark Teixeira.

2010 RBI Total: 125
2011 RBI Projection: 117






















8. Mark Teixeira, 1B, New York Yankees

Analysis: Fantasy owners are reminded early and often about the marathon-like nature of the Major League Baseball season if Teixeira occupies their first base slot. He’s a notoriously slow starter, but the final numbers always leave you smiling. He’s driven in at least 105 runs in seven consecutive seasons (had 122 in his first season with the Yankees).

There are concerns about the overall health and age of this squad (Teixeira had his own issues in September of 2010), but I’m not anticipating a shutdown of this perennial juggernaut. Teixeira will still produce a huge extra-base hit total and pick up Derek Jeter (.385 career OBP).

2010 RBI Total: 108
2011 RBI Projection: 115

9. Carlos Gonzalez, OF, Colorado

Analysis: Gonzalez produced a fantastic breakthrough season during his 2009 introduction to Colorado. He followed it up with one of the most dominant offensive performances of recent memory. Gonzalez drove in 117 runs, including 76 at Coors Field on the strength of 50 extra-base hits. He’s still improving and rounding out his game. Pitchers of the NL West are less than thrilled.

2010 RBI Total: 117
2011 RBI Projection: 114

10t. Adam Dunn, 1B, Chicago White Sox

Analysis: Dunn’s power production through the years is well-noted. I don’t need to belabor the point. He’s hit 38 or more home runs in seven consecutive seasons and drove in at least 92 runs in each of those campaigns (including six 100-RBI campaigns). Dunn now joins a loaded, power-laden lineup in one of the game’s friendliest ballparks.

2010 RBI Total: 103
2011 RBI Projection: 113

10t. Josh Hamilton, OF, Texas

Analysis: The reigning American League MVP can mash. There’s no question about it. The question is whether he can stay healthy. Hamilton won the MVP Award despite missing 29 games last season. He still raked 75 extra-base hits and drove in 100 runs, his second 100-RBI season in the past three years.

The Texas lineup is loaded for another run in 2011. The core is in place. Third baseman Adrian Beltre replaces Vladimir Guerrero, and catcher Mike Napoli cures the offensive deficiencies from that position. The former No. 1 overall pick possesses one of the sweetest swings in the game. Will we see it for 130 games or a full slate? I’ll split the difference.

2010 RBI Total: 100
2011 RBI Projection: 113





























12. Evan Longoria, 3B, Tampa Bay

Analysis: Longoria earned his second straight 100-RBI season for the Rays in 2010. He’ll enter 2011 without the support of Carl Crawford and the big swing (oftentimes a miss, I know) of Carlos Pena. Longoria’s protection will be provided by Manny Ramirez. Ramirez quietly batted .298 last season, and I’m not so sure that the book has closed on him yet. I’m most curious to see how well Johnny Damon gets the line moving in his introduction to Tampa Bay.

2010 RBI Total: 104
2011 RBI Projection: 110

13. Ryan Braun, OF, Milwaukee

Analysis: Since his promotion by the Brewers in 2007, Braun has been an absolute beast. Remember, he drove in 97 runs in just 113 games during that season and hasn’t looked back. Braun has averaged 105 RBI per season, including that short season of 2007 (averaged 117 per 162 games). He forms a fantastic heart of the lineup with Prince Fielder and Corey Hart. The health of Rickie Weeks is paramount to this team’s rise in the NL Central.

2010 RBI Total: 103
2011 RBI Projection: 107

14. Vladimir Guerrero, OF/DH, Baltimore

Analysis: Following a one-year stay in Texas, Guerrero heads east to join the retooled Baltimore lineup. He remains a top-flight run producer when healthy, and his transition to the DH role certainly helps that effort (played 152 games in 2010, only 18 in the outfield). That doesn’t mean that Guerrero doesn’t present some risk to fantasy owners, as he did appear in only 100 games during the 2009 season.

Guerrero drove in 115 runs for the powerhouse Texas lineup last season, the 10th 100-RBI season of his career. He’s driven in at least 91 runs in 11 of the past 13 seasons. Guerrero can’t pitch, so I can’t speak to his overall impact on the Orioles’ record. However, I do like the makeup of the new-look Baltimore lineup that includes power broker Mark Reynolds, former Triple Crown candidate Derrek Lee and shortstop J.J. Hardy.

2010 RBI Total: 115
2011 RBI Projection: 106

15. Jose Bautista, 3B/OF, Toronto

Analysis: He was the breakthrough player of 2010, nearly doubling his career home-run total with a 54-homer barrage. With the exception of a terrible month of June, Bautista was a consistent producer in 2010. He drove in at least 21 runs in four different months.

The Blue Jays traded away Vernon Wells, but the lineup is strong and loaded with young talent. Rajai Davis isn’t your ideal leadoff hitter (.330 career OBP), but he applies pressure on the basepaths, and Yunel Escobar is a career .289 hitter. With Adam Lind protecting him in the cleanup role, Bautista will have many RBI opportunities.

2010 RBI Total: 124
2011 RBI Projection: 105