Predicting the 2013 SEC East

By foxsports
Published

Yesterday I laid out my predictions for the 2013 SEC West, now I'm giving y'all my predictions for the SEC East. 

I've broken down each team's schedule using five different categories: definite wins, likely wins, definite losses, likely losses, and toss-ups.

So how do I define those games. 

Definite wins are games that should have spreads of 17+. It's possible that a team could lose these games, but it's incredibly unlikely. If teams lose these games you're probably heading for a Gene Chizik like implosion.

Likely wins are those games that a team should win, but it's not a slam dunk. You're somewhere around a 8-14 point favorite in the game.

Toss ups are games I'm forecasting to have a spread of a touchdown or less. These are basically games where a play or two here or there has a decent chance of determining the outcome. I've also put a few games that will likely have a margin of more than seven points in the toss-up category. For instance, LSU at Alabama will probably see Bama as a touchdown or more favorite, but given LSU and Alabama's history of late, would it really shock anyone if LSU went into Tuscaloosa and found a way to win? I don't think so, hence some of my toss-ups are a function of history, coaching, and my own feelings about the match-ups.

Figure that a toss-up is close to a 65-35 outcome at worst. That is, if the game was played 100 times the underdog would win around 35 of the games. Many of these toss-ups are much closer to 50-50 splits, where one team or the other will be a field goal or less of a favorite.   

Likely losses are the reverse of the likely wins, the team that is likely to lose will be 8-14 point underdog.

Definite losses are games where a team will be a three score or more underdog.  

In related news, go ahead and run for the hills Georgia Bulldog fans, you're my pick to win the 2013 BCS title. 

Georgia: 11-1

 

Definite Wins (5):

North Texas, Appalachian State, Missouri, at Auburn, Kentucky

Likely wins (3):

at Tennessee, Vanderbilt, at Georgia Tech

Definite losses (0):

none

Toss-ups (4):

at Clemson, South Carolina, LSU, Florida 

 

South Carolina: 10-2

 

Definite wins (5):

at UCF, Kentucky, at Arkansas, Mississippi State, Coastal Carolina

Likely wins (3):

North Carolina, Vanderbilt, at Missouri, at Tennessee

Definite losses (0):

none

Likely losses (0):

none

Toss-ups (3):

at Georgia, Florida, Clemson

 

Florida: 9-3

 

Definite wins (5):

Toledo, Tennessee, at Kentucky, Arkansas, Georgia Southern

Likely wins (3):

 at Miami, at Missouri, Vandy, 

Definite losses (0):

none

Likely losses (0):

none

Toss-ups (4):

at LSU, Georgia, at South Carolina, Florida State

 

Vanderbilt: 7-5

 

Definite wins (5): 

Austin Peay, at UMASS, UAB, Kentucky, Wake Forest

Likely wins (0):

none

Definite losses (1):

at Texas A&M

Likely losses (3):

Georgia, at South Carolina, at Florida

Toss-ups (3):

Ole Miss, Missouri, at Tennessee 

 

Missouri 6-6

 

Definite wins (2):

Murray State, Toledo

Likely wins (2):

at Indiana, Arkansas State

Definite losses (1):

at Georgia

Likely losses (4):

Florida, South Carolina, at Ole Miss, Texas A&M

Toss-ups (3):

at Vanderbilt, at Kentucky, Tennessee 

 

Tennessee: 6-6

 

Definite wins (2):

Austin Peay, South Alabama

Likely wins (1):

Western Kentucky

Definite losses (3):

at Oregon, at Florida, at Alabama

Likely losses (2):

Georgia, South Carolina

Toss-ups (4):

at Missouri, Auburn, Vandy, at Kentucky

 

Kentucky: 3-9

 

Definite wins (2):

Miami (Ohio), Alabama State

Likely wins (0):

none

Definite losses (7):

Louisville, Florida, at South Carolina, Alabama, at Mississippi State, at Vandy, at Georgia

Likely losses (0):

none

Toss-ups (3):

Western Kentucky, Missouri, Tennessee

...

Total and complete agreement again, right?

Here are my predictions on the SEC West from yesterday.