Picking a Derby winner
Thoughts on the Kentucky Derby...
I don't like funny hats, I don't know the words to My Old Kentucky Home (though I sometimes pretend I do) and the only sip of a mint julep I've ever taken left me gagging for a good 25 minutes. But there is a lot I like about the Kentucky Derby and the traditions that surround it, and that's enough to get me out of bed on the first Saturday morning in May with a smile. The world's most famous horse race not only turns everybody into either a guru or a guesser (more of the latter, even though most won't admit it) and brings out party mode in folks who don't watch one second of horse racing on any of the other 364 days in a given year. A week of hype turns into a 90-minute pre-race show which turns into a race that's over in two minutes. In other words, it's perfect for my attention span. Let's play.
I've always been a horse racing fan. I've always known how to read a racing form (my middle school teachers were proud), guess the pace at which a race will be run and I like to think I can diagnose the factors which lead to favored horses faltering and longshots coming ready to fire and light up the tote board. The good news is that when longshots fire, you only have to win 30 or 40 percent of the races on which you wager to turn a profit. The bad news is that it's not exactly easy to pick a winner, let alone multiple winners. It's not easy to abstain from betting every race in sight or thinking you've got an indestructible winner. All that becomes even harder on Derby Day when a huge field of unproven 3-year old horses, some of whom have their best racing ahead and some of whom will never be heard from again, run in front of more than 200,000 screaming fans and try to run faster and further than they ever have. Strategize and line up your speed figures all you want, but there's no controlling a bad start, a bad bump or a guess at the distance. Play your lucky number. Pick one with a really cool name, as my mom often does. Those strategies give you as good a chance as anybody.
The Kentucky Derby has become the Short Attention Span Super Bowl for a lot of reasons. The rush of picking a winner is one. Some pretty good marketing and tradition are big reasons, too. And parties. We like a party. And if the party's good enough, nobody cares that you're wearing a funny hat. I have friends -- and family members -- who have been to a Triple Crown race without ever seeing a horse. Some call that absurd; my dad would call it money management. I have been to Churchill Downs for a day of racing, but never THE day of racing. I'm too old to party in the infield -- I feel too old, I don't necessarily act like it -- and too poor to afford the fancy seats, so a big-screen TV in the neighborhood is just fine. I've had my Derby racing form all week and I feel like I'm ready to go. Way back in 1999, when I was just a lad, I snuck away from a wedding to watch a 31-1 shot I'd picked out myself (probably during class that week) named Charismatic sprint home and become an instant legend. About my next five Derby picks ended about as well as that marriage did, but I had a winner -- and the hope I could win again. I did with Big Brown, Smarty Jones and Barbaro, though none of those offered the return on investment Charismatic did.
Midnight Interlude is my choice today for several reasons. I believe he's improving and is peaking at the right time. I know he didn't run as a 2-year old and no horse has won the Derby without running at 2 since 1800-something (I'm not making that up), but I believe he'll be in position to get the first run on the leaders coming around the final turn and position himself for a run home. The closers will be coming -- Nehro, Archarcharch, the favorite Dialed In, Animal Kingdom and maybe Brilliant Speed -- and they'll be coming fast. Calvin Borel will be trying to hog the rail aboard Twice the Appeal. Nehro's going to want that rail, too. There are so many variables at play in this race because of the crowded field (none of these horses will ever run in a 19-horse field again), the distance, a possible thunderstorm front, several jockeys riding these horses for the first time and just plain 'ol unexplainable things that happen. The Indians have the best record in baseball. Giacomo won the Derby at 51-1. Last year on Derby night, Mo Williams dunked on the Celtics. Sometimes, a horse just doesn't want to run. Sometimes, one will run like crazy but come up a nose short. Sometimes playing a combination of numbers can pay for the party. Sometimes the party just isn't that fun.
I am predicting -- drum roll, please -- an order of finish in today's race that looks like this: 1. Midnight Interlude. 2. Nehro. 3. Animal Kingdom. I also predict the mint juleps won't go down easy but they'll still go down. I predict lots of yelling and I predict a wild finish. I'd like to say let's meet at the window 15 minutes or so after the race and celebrate. If only it was that easy...