Packers vs. Lions preview
For those needing to nail down why Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers seem to find themselves in the NFC North race each season, the answer might have more to do with holding onto the ball than anything else.
This season could be their best yet in that category.
With the Detroit Lions visiting Sunday and the division going to the winner, the Packers will try to extend the NFL's all-time leading home winning streak over a given opponent.
In addition to the North title, both teams can still secure a first-round bye or even home-field throughout the NFC playoffs if things shake out properly with the league's other 11-4 teams.
Green Bay's plus-15 turnover differential is the best in football, and its 11 turnovers committed could come in as the best single-season franchise mark since the stat was first quantified in 1941. It could also be the NFL's top mark since San Francisco committed 10 turnovers in 2011, which is tied with 2010 New England for the all-time record.
The Packers (11-4) weren't far behind the 49ers in 2011, committing a franchise-low 14 turnovers. In fact, in Rodgers' seven seasons as a starter, Green Bay has -- through Week 16 of this season -- posted its top four seasons in the category under his guidance (11 in 2014, 14 in 2011, 16 in 2009 and 2012).
Only last season (25 turnovers) is outside the top nine, and Rodgers only played nine games in 2013 due to a broken collarbone.
In Rodgers' time as a starter, the Packers' 125 turnovers are second to New England's 119 in 111 games. Rodgers has missed nine games in that time while Tom Brady has been absent for 15.
Of course, what's been a guaranteed win over the Lions in Green Bay has helped the Packers to now six straight postseason appearances under Rodgers. The Packers have won 22 consecutive regular-season home games against Detroit, and a playoff win in 1994 at Lambeau Field puts the all-time record at 23. The Packers have a plus-20 turnover margin in those 23 games.
After clinching a playoff spot with last Sunday's 20-3 victory over Tampa Bay, the next step is turning it into four straight North crowns.
Rodgers' health has been a bit of an issue with a lingering illness and a calf injury, but coach Mike McCarthy isn't overly concerned.
"We have a full-plate game plan and I'm confident he'll be able to run it," McCarthy said.
The Lions (11-4) have also clinched a berth and are seeking their first division title since 1993 -- two years after they last won in Green Bay on Dec. 15, 1991.
Detroit, however, has won the last two overall meetings while limiting the Packers to 17 points, including a 19-7 victory in Detroit on Sept. 21. That game was maybe the earliest evidence of just how strong the Lions' defense would be this year, and it hasn't slowed down much since.
The Lions held the Packers to 223 yards and were in the same ballpark with 234 yards allowed in last Sunday's 20-14 win in Chicago. They rank second behind Seattle in total defense (295.9) and points (16.8) per game. The run defense is easily the best in football (63.8).
"You just know it's going to be a game where you have to be very efficient throwing the ball, and you have to look for those opportunities for extended plays in the run game and the pass game," Rodgers said.
But it hasn't much mattered what opponents have brought to Lambeau this season.
The Packers are 7-0 while averaging the most home points (41.1) and second most yards (425.6) behind Pittsburgh. Rodgers has been irrepressible with a 132.6 rating, which would go down as the top single-season home passer rating in NFL history. The record belongs to Rodgers -- 128.5 in 2011. So does second place -- 126.4 in 2013 when he amassed the requisite number of attempts in his four home games.
The running game has also contributed. In Week 3, the Lions limited the Packers to 76 yards on the ground. They've improved since, reaching 110 yards or more in nine of the last 10 games, including seven straight.
"It just clicked, and you don't question it, you just continue to roll with it," running back Eddie Lacy said.
Detroit has had a harder time moving the ball, ranking 20th in total offense on the road (326.7).
Matthew Stafford has struggled away from Detroit with a 72.8 rating, which is ahead of only Josh McCown, Brian Hoyer, Nick Foles, Derek Carr and Drew Stanton. He's thrown four interceptions and no touchdowns in his last three road games.
The Lions will be without center Dominic Raiola, who will miss the game after losing his appeal of a one-game suspension for stepping on Bears defensive tackle Ego Ferguson.
That means Stafford will take snaps from someone else -- rookie Travis Swanson -- for the first time in his career in a regular-season contest.
"It's one of those things where, you know, obviously you can't replace experience," coach Jim Caldwell told the team's official website. "But nevertheless, youth and vitality, we hope will be able to offset some of that. You certainly can't offset all of that."