Outkick's Gambling Picks Week Two 2015
You guys know that I hate to give myself too much praise or bask in acclaim. I'm a humble guy, generally try to avoid the spotlight, keep to myself, hate all attention.
That's why you need to take this next sentence so seriously:
IT'S IMPOSSIBLE FOR A HUMAN -- OR A COMPUTER -- TO BE BETTER AT GAMBLING THAN I WAS LAST WEEK.
We went 11-2 against the number. But for a quarterback injury at Virginia Tech and a single point in the Michigan-Utah game we would have been undefeated at 13-0.
Instead we finished with an opening week record winning percentage of 85%. Do you know how hard it is for me to impress myself with myself? Well, I managed to do it.
Now I have ten more picks to make us all even richer than we ever were before. Step into my magic gay Muslim lair and prepare to go 10-0.
1. Buffalo at Penn State -20.5
Look, if there's one thing that James Franklin used to talk about when he got home from work and we were still married it was this -- "If we have a bad week, honey, it won't last."
You think I'm a showman, who else loses to a crappy in-state team for the first time since World War II and then literally digs up the game film and buries it? I mean, that's an Outkick fucking move right there.
Bet your mortgages, put your wife's new ottoman on layaway, go buy every new Star Wars toy possible, there is a 100% chance that Penn State wins and covers this week.
And I'm telling you this despite the fact that I can't name a single player on Buffalo. Or their coach.
2. and 3. Georgia at Vandy +21 and the under 56
You need to be following me on Twitter because I will give you my best bet as soon as the lines pop. This week's best bet was Georgia and Vandy with the under of 56. The line has already moved down to 51.5. See, I move markets.
Here's the deal, Vandy is pretty good on defense. And Georgia's offense isn't the least bit complicated. That means that Vandy will make Georgia grind their way up and down the field. That's one of the things on Derek Mason's list: "Lose late, not soon." So long as Johnny McCrary doesn't throw three pick sixes, there is no way on Earth that Vandy gives up more than 35 points to Georgia. Do you think that Vandy is scoring three touchdowns on Georgia? Come on, stop laughing.
The under is the play in a big way here.
But I also think Vandy covers. The final on this one is 21-3 Bulldogs.
4. and 5. LSU -4 at Mississippi State the under 49.5
This one's tough because we didn't get to see LSU last week. Although, let's be honest, do we really need to watch LSU play to know a couple of things: 1. Their quarterback can't throw the ball and 2. The game will be close in the fourth quarter and batshit crazy Les Miles will find a way to win. I'm just not sure he wins by more than a field goal. But I still feel like LSU will have to score a late touchdown to cover.
Which is why the play here is the under on LSU at Mississippi State as well as LSU. If you're only picking one of these, I think neither team is even close to 49.5 total points.
6. Mizzou -10.5 at Arkansas State
If Mizzou can't beat Arkansas State by 11 points, they're in for a world of hurt this season. I watched Arkansas State against USC. It was like that team had never played football before. It was a total bloodbath.
So all you Mizzou fans who are always bitching at me for picking against you on Twitter, you're goddamn welcome. I'm taking Mizzou big here.
Also, one gambling tip, there seems to be early money on Arkansas State. I'm not sure whether it will continue to come in, but you might want to wait and see if you could get 9.5. If so, then I would wager your firstborn son -- seriously, he's kind of asshole, right? -- on this line.
7. Memphis -13 at Kansas
Justin Fuente is one of the brightest young coaching minds in the country. On the flip side, Kansas's mascot's performance on the Kansas State field was the best play any Jawhawk made this past Saturday.
Honestly, this line feels like stealing.
8. Kentucky +7.5 at South Carolina
Last year Kentucky beat South Carolina, this year I think the Cocks get them back, but the play here is clearly Kentucky so long as you can get them for more than a touchdown.
The Wildcats aren't very good, but neither is South Carolina. I'm tempted to take the under on this one too, but then I remembered that Kentucky gave up 33 points to a Sunbelt team.
The Wildcats look like they'll win all game, then lose late.
But they cover.
9. Oklahoma at Tennessee, the over at 61
I have no idea what's going to happen in this game. No one does. Not even Butch Jones and Bob Stoops. Tennessee got roasted by a white wide receiver from Bowling Green last week. That motherfucker better turn into Jordy Nelson in the NFL or I have some serious reservations about the deep speed in UT's secondary. Meanwhile Oklahoma passed for nearly 400 yards against Akron, but could barely run for 100 yards despite having two of the best running backs in the country -- only one of whom recently broke a female student's jaw in four places.
Some of y'all have been like, "Well, Akron was trying to take away the run."
And my response to that is, "It's Akron. They couldn't take away a stuffed animal from my one year old."
So the only good bet here is the over. I feel like neither team will be able to stop the other team. One team wins 35-31, I'm just not sure which.
10. Oregon at Michigan State -3
The other good game this week is Oregon at Michigan State and I also have no idea what's going to happen. Except I have faith in Mark Dantonio. And he's the kind of dude who has been working on his game plan for Oregon since January. I'm not sold on Vernon Adams, but I'm really not sold on that Oregon defense. Meanwhile, I love Connor Cook.
The only thing that makes me nervous about this line is the 3 or 3.5 now popping up, as opposed to, be still my heart, 2.5.
But I still feel like Michigan State wins by ten.
...
There you have it, a nice 10-0 week to pair with our 11-2 last week.
Get rich, kids.