No consensus on Lions' first-round pick
When it comes to predicting the Detroit Lions' No. 23 pick overall in Thursday's first round of the NFL Draft, flip a coin.
There are so many different scenarios that could develop depending on what happens with teams selecting in front of them and which talented players slide down from earlier projections.
"I've been through this process before where you have your heart set on one guy," Lions general manager Martin Mayhew said.
And then, unexpectedly, that player is gone because another team had the same idea.
Or, someone who isn't supposed to be there suddenly is and the value is too good to pass up.
The numerous mock drafts that exist these days are, not surprisingly, all over the board on what the Lions could do with their first pick.
The club has immediate needs in the secondary, especially at cornerback, and also at running back.
But there are also other areas that could be addressed, too, if the right player is available. Those include offensive line, where left tackle Jeff Backus and center Dominic Raiola are approaching the end of their careers, and perhaps defensive end, considering that no agreement has been reached with Cliff Avril beyond the 2012 season and that Kyle Vanden Bosch is getting older and entering the final year of his contract.
"We're going to go into it with an open mind," Mayhew said. "We're going to take the best players and then if we have to fill in gaps later (at certain positions), we'll do that during the rest of the offseason (through free agency or trades)."
The Chicago Bears, a division rival, likely will have an impact on the Lions' decision. The Bears, picking four slots ahead of them, have similar needs defensively and probably are targeting some of the same players.
Whom the Bears do or don't take could affect the direction the Lions go.
In a sampling of 20 mock drafts, 11 different players were projected as Detroit's first-round selection. The most popular choice was Stanford offensive tackle Jonathan Martin (five), followed by Ohio State offensive tackle Mike Adams (four).
Here's a close look at just how widespread the projections range:
Peter Schrager, FOXSports.com
Pick: Alabama cornerback Dre Kirkpatrick
"Kirkpatrick is the rare tall cornerback who can keep up with the game's fastest receivers. I’ve heard some scouts say they see him fitting in better at safety at the next level, but I think he could be an elite cornerback. With guys like Calvin Johnson, Julio Jones and A.J. Green catching passes, there’s nothing wrong with a big, 6-foot corner if he’s got the speed to keep up. I believe Kirkpatrick has that speed. Detroit needs a cornerback. Hell, they need two. Kirkpatrick’s a nice pickup at 23rd overall."
Rob Rang of NFLDraftScout.com also projects Kirkpatrick to Detroit.
Taylor Jones, FOXSports.com
Pick: North Alabama cornerback Janoris Jenkins
"Jenkins is a risk for character concerns, but his man-to-man coverage skills might balance that risk for the Lions."
Mel Kiper Jr, ESPN
Pick: Martin
"The Lions can't go wrong with either the best corner or tackle option here. In this scenario, Martin fits what they'll be looking for to bring the O-line up to par. An athletic tackle, he should develop into a great pass protector for Matthew Stafford. Jeff Backus has played forever, the Lions have enough pieces elsewhere and must target the line."
CBSSports.com's Clark Judge and Pat Kirwan, along with USA Today's Jim Corbett and Nate Davis, also have Martin landing in Detroit in their mock drafts.
"There are never enough bodyguards to protect Matt Stafford," Judge said. "Plus, Jeff Backus isn't getting younger."
Said Kirwan: "Martin is versatile and can play on the right or left side. He has plenty of experience in pass protection and has been dropping slightly on draft boards."
Wes Bunting, NationalFootballPost.com
Pick: Adams
"As long as quarterback Matthew Stafford is healthy the offense is going to score points. Therefore, bringing in an athlete capable of protecting his blind side is becoming a major need in Detroit."
Bucky Brooks and Steve Wyche, both with NFL.com, along with USA Today's Jarrett Bell, also have Detroit taking Adams.
"Adams' positive marijuana test raises more red flags about his character, but Martin Mayhew might be willing to gamble on his immense talent and potential as a franchise-caliber left tackle," Brooks said.
Said Wyche: "Adams is a mammoth player who refurbishes an area of need. USC defensive end Nick Perry could be a nice fit, as well."
Todd McShay, ESPN
Pick: Alabama defensive end/outside linebacker Courtney Upshaw
McShay believes the best scenario would be to upgrade at cornerback with either Kirkpatrick or South Carolina's Stephon Gilmore. But McShay doesn't expect either to be available at No. 23.
Therefore, McShay suggests, "Take the best available pass-rusher, which in this case is Upshaw. The Lions could continue to build their defensive line as the strength of the team with Upshaw's power and pass-rush ability."
Charlie Campbell, WalterFootball.com
Pick: Georgia offensive tackle/guard Cordy Glenn
"The team definitely needs offensive line help. The 6-foot-5, 345-pound Glenn fits a power man-blocking scheme. He is a force as a run blocker who moves pretty well for his size. Glenn has some flexibility to move around the line, but as a pro, he would be most dominant at guard."
Peter King, Sports Illustrated
Pick: Midwestern State offensive guard/tackle Amini Silatolu
"Upset special of the first round. The Lions loved Silatolu when he visited them, and they probably can't wait until their second-round pick (54th) to get him. Powerfully based and more explosive than he looks at 6-4 and 312 pounds, he could succeed Jeff Backus at left tackle, where Silatolu dominated Division II opponents for two years."
Dave Birkett, Detroit Free Press
Pick: Illinois defensive end Whitney Mercilus
"With the top three corners off the board, the Lions add another pass rusher to their stable. Some worry that Mercilus is a one-year wonder, but the Lions have the luxury of bringing him along as a rookie before turning him loose in 2013."
Chad Reuter, NFL Network
Pick: Clemson DE Andre Branch
"The age of Kyle Vanden Bosch is a concern for the Lions. The long and agile Branch gives them insurance for the future, as well as another body to throw at quarterbacks Aaron Rodgers and Jay Cutler in divisional bouts."
Pete Prisco, CBSSports.com
Pick: Alabama strong safety Mark Barron
"They were horrible on the back end last year. We know how Jim Schwartz likes playmaking safeties."
A Sporting News mock draft also projected Barron to the Lions. The magazine contacted 32 beat writers to make the selections for the team they cover.
My projection?
I say Mayhew finds a way to trade up a few notches to secure Kirkpatrick, who probably won't be there at 23.
The Lions' GM tried to do something similar last year for LSU cornerback/return specialist Patrick Peterson, but it didn't work out. The price was going to be too high in Mayhew's opinion.
This time, he needs to pull the trigger on such a deal.
It's the best-case scenario for the Lions, a team on the verge of becoming a Super Bowl contender, because then the "best player available" would also help improve the team's most glaring weakness.